Only Louth can relax in final NFL group ties

There is still all to play for in the 2006 National Football League.  Seán Moran predicts the winners and losers

There is still all to play for in the 2006 National Football League.  Seán Moran predicts the winners and losers

The NFL is coming to the end of a successful first phase. It is a tribute to the competitiveness of the league that, of the 12 issues to be determined, only one has fallen into place ahead of the season's last Sunday of full fixtures.

Louth's renaissance under former Monaghan player and manager Eamonn McEneaney ended in promotion on Sunday as well as a place in the play-off stages of the Division Two title race.

Otherwise, everything remains open until next weekend. Interestingly, the situation in Division One A is exactly as last year with Mayo, Kerry and Tyrone all in contention and each having a similar scoring difference. Twelve months ago, a late Mark Harte point in Killarney put Kerry out of contention, even though they won the match by six points. They needed to win by seven.

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Division One B is even more tightly configured. Every team have something to play for with the top four in the shake-up for semi-final places and the bottom four all in varying degrees of relegation danger. The top teams play the second placed teams in cross fixtures for the semi-finals.

Teams level on points are ranked according to a) scoring difference; b) scoring totals; c) result of the fixture between the teams.

Mayo

After making the running for so long in the campaign, Mickey Moran's team find themselves with a difficult run for the tape. Having lost for the first time in Dublin at the weekend and destroying their healthy scoring difference in the process, they must now face a resurgent Tyrone. The equation is simple: avoiding defeat will get Mayo to the semi-finals; defeat will almost certainly rule them out - provided Kerry and Tyrone win their remaining matches.

Kerry

Victory against Dublin will, in all likelihood, see Kerry to the semi-finals, but Tyrone's outstanding fixture with Cork and the relatively tight scoring differences (Mayo +12, Kerry, +14, Tyrone +9) mean that nothing is certain. Defeat to Dublin wouldn't necessarily rule them out of the play-offs, but such an escape would require Tyrone to ease up in their two remaining matches.

Tyrone

The joker in the play-off pack because of their match with Cork being refixed for this weekend. A win will put the All-Ireland champions level with Kerry - ahead of them if the margin is five or more. The following week's match with Mayo will probably be an eliminator, unless Dublin can win in Kerry.

Dublin

A win by at least five points in Kerry is a pre-requisite for Dublin to have a chance of the play-offs. On a more positive note, Paul Caffrey's team are officially clear of relegation.

Fermanagh

After a fine campaign, manager Charlie Mulgrew's priority of retaining their top-flight status has been achieved. Their scoring difference won't be adequate to have a chance of the play-offs, even if other results miraculously go their way.

Cork

Officially stuck in the relegation shoot-out, but with a match in hand. That it's against Tyrone reduces its potential as a lifeline, but Cork have a record of good displays against the champions and a win in Omagh on Sunday would make them officially safe. Otherwise, survival will go down to a straight fight with Monaghan in the final fixture. Scoring difference won't matter between them, as the losers will be packing their bags, but should it be a draw and should Offaly win well in Fermanagh, Cork could be in danger - depending on how heavy any potential defeat by Tyrone proves.

Monaghan

Séamus McEnaney will be disappointed that such a battling season is coming down to this sort of an endgame, but at least the task is clear - hope Tyrone win the match in hand and then it will all come down to defeating Cork at home on Sunday week and hoping that Offaly don't go berserk against Fermanagh.

Offaly

After a fraught season, Offaly's prospects depend on securing a good win in Fermanagh and hoping that Cork lose to Tyrone and draw with Monaghan. Were Monaghan to win, Offaly would need to be on fire in the Fermanagh match (win by at least 15 points).

Laois

A draw against Kildare would almost certainly do it for Laois, as their scoring difference is vastly superior to the chasing pack. Should they lose, however, there is every chance of being overtaken by Down and Derry, who are a point behind, or even by Galway, provided there is an enormous turnaround in scoring difference.

Laois are 19 points better off than the Connacht champions and 14 points superior to the Ulster pair.

Down

Liam Doyle's winner on Sunday was a significant score, pushing Paddy O'Rourke's side into second place. Their final fixture is the toughest of the top four, against free-scoring Galway. To be certain, Down must win and hope that Derry don't outstrip their scoring difference - or if they do, that Laois get beaten.

Derry

Derry's impressive momentum has been thoroughly derailed by defeats against the division's top two. They're still in with a shout, but need to do better in their match against Meath than Down manage against Galway.

The two Ulster teams are locked together on eight points and a scoring difference of eight. If Derry can win and improve their difference by more than Down, they are guaranteed a semi-final place.

Galway

Like last year, Peter Ford's team have an outside chance of progress and once again Down are the opposition, It's a simple prescription. Galway must beat Down and hope Derry don't win in Navan - or else that the turnaround mentioned above (see Laois) materialises.

Kildare

If Kildare avoid defeat against Laois they will very likely stay up given their scoring difference. But, should they lose, there is a danger that Armagh and Meath will both win and pass them out.

There is even the admittedly remote chance that Wexford could catch them, but it would require a 24-point turnaround.

Armagh

Joe Kernan's team escaped relegation by the skin of their teeth two years ago and once more require final-day salvation. They travel to Wexford where they lost last year needing to win.

That would probably keep them up because their scoring difference is seven better than Meath.

Meath

Despite some good results, Meath occupy one of the relegation spots. They need to beat Derry and hope that Armagh or Kildare slip up. It's a daunting task, but by no means impossible. Defeat will relegate them.

Wexford

Matty Forde's free gave his team a vital point in Newbridge and kept survival on the agenda. They need to beat Armagh and hope that Meath lose or that Laois beat Kildare by a cricket score. Improbable permutations, but not out of the question.

Remaining Matches

TBC - Longford v Donegal. April 9th - Clare v Longford, Limerick v Leitrim, Carlow v London, Roscommon v Donegal.

Remaining Matches

April 9th - Down v Galway, Meath v Derry, Wexford v Armagh,

Laois v Kildare.

Remaining Matches

April 9th - Cavan v Waterford, Louth v Westmeath, Tipperary v Antrim, Sligo v Wicklow.

Remaining Matches

Next weekend - Tyrone v Cork. April 9th - Monaghan v Cork, Mayo v Tyrone, Fermanagh v Offaly, Kerry v Dublin.