Tri-Nations competition: Gerry Thornleyon how resurgent South Africa and proven Wallabies will test All Blacks' mettle.
Of the grossly excessive 48 international matches over the summer months prior to the 48-match jamboree at the World Cup, only six truly matter. Amid the surfeit of Europe's underpowered tours to the Southern Hemisphere and the catalogue of B-list matches, nothing will whet the appetite for the World Cup more than the half dozen games in the Tri-Nations.
That said, the competition will be overshadowed somewhat by the World Cup, with the possibility of all three participants indulging in some experimentation and being mindful of not showing their entire hand. Even so, this is the real deal.
"The Northern Hemisphere sides were weakened and everything that has gone before is irrelevant," observed Springboks coach Jake White earlier in the week. "Now we will be able to judge ourselves against genuine World Cup opposition."
The imminence of the World Cup has arguably done this year's Tri-Nations' a favour in compressing this tournament to a six-match, home-and-away format, before it reverts back to the nine-match series.
The kingpins of the Tri- Nations have traditionally been the All Blacks, who have won seven of the previous editions, and are seeking their third crown in succession. They are 4 to 9 favourites to do so for a third successive year, akin to their odds-on conquering the world come September and October, which rather puts the World Cup into context.
With a group containing Scotland, Italy, Romania and Portugal (when the match handicap is liable to be around 130 points!) the All Blacks might reasonably be expected to face a maximum of three proper Tests in the World Cup, namely in the knockout stages. By contrast, they should have four tough matches in the Tri-Nations, two of them away, and while unbeaten in their last 23 games at home, of New Zealand's four defeats since the last World Cup, one was in Australia and three in South Africa.
This underlines the Springboks' status as the one team, more than any other, who will not be psychologically cowed by facing the almighty All Blacks, who probably missed a chance to hammer home a mental edge over the Boks and the rest of the world by losing last year's dead rubber in Rustenburg.
Whatever about their facile wins over a skeletal English team, the resurgence of South Africa's Super 14 sides, the return of their frontliners, Schalk Burger's full recuperation from a neck injury and the flying form of Bryan Habana, has boosted their status as second favourites for the Tri-Nations and the World Cup.
"South African rugby is in a pretty good space at the moment, probably in the best shape it's been for some time," said Wallabies' coach John Connolly this week.
Steve Staunton probably has a better chance of finishing the year in his current job than White but for the time being, the never-ending off-field political in-fighting ought not to affect the Boks on the pitch. They can set the early pace when hosting Australia in Cape Town today and the All Blacks next week in the first leg of the tournament.
There have only been three away wins in the 21 matches over the last three years and two years ago the title was effectively decided on bonus points.
Viewed in that light, next Saturday's encounter in Durban already looms as the tournament decider.
White's obsession with size has resulted in an experienced juggernaut of a pack which must surely be the biggest in world rugby. But despite the return of Jaque Fourie in midfield today against the Wallabies, and a first start for exciting scrumhalf Ruan Pienaar, their backs are something of a juggernaut also; all hard, straight runners and relatively lacking in alacrity and inventiveness at 10, 12 and 13, albeit with arguably the best winger in the world in Habana.
Rumours from the Wallabies' tour last autumn and their recent early-season skirmishes suggest there has been a fair degree of disharmony in their camp. Their formguide against a second-string Welsh outfit was distinctively unimpressive, and ditto against Fiji, but underlined how critically important George Gregan and Stephen Larkham remain to them.
Between them, they have a phenomenal 230 caps, and virtually everything inventive or good about the Wallabies' rugby emanates from Gregan's brilliant movement and visionary offloading, and the peerless distribution of Larkham.
Connolly has reverted to the tried and trusted, and after a year of experimentation, the game's most established half-back partnership of all time have been re-united with the Matt Giteau-Stirling Mortlock midfield partnership back for the first time in seven Tests.
Australia have won only two Tri-Nations, the same as their number of World Cups, and the last of those was in 2001. They haven't won in South Africa since Mortlock's late penalty clinched the 2000 title but Cape Town, where they've won on three of their eight visits, probably offers their best chance of an upset.
Connolly has also reunited the excellent Nathan Sharpe and Dan Vickerman, and explains that his preference for Stephen Moore at hooker, flanked by Matt Dunning and Guy Shepherdson, is on the premise of opting for his strongest scrummaging unit. But not only do serious question marks remain about their scrum, Moore looked like he'd struggle to hit a barn door with a banjo against Wales.
The All Blacks' lineout resurfaced as something of an Achilles' heel in their first Test against France, and of course they remain heavily dependant on Richie Moore (targeted in this tournament last year) and Dan Carter. It will also be interesting to see how their brilliant backs cope with South Africa's rush defence and when the pressure comes on in a tight game. Their frontliners' extended pre-season unhinged New Zealand's Super 14 sides, and the suspicion lurks that they are set to peak for their Holy Grail in less than three months' time.
Most likely, the All Blacks will retain their crown and cement their status as World Cup favourites, without completely removing some of the nagging concerns about them, especially their temperament in a tight knock-out encounter.
After all, they won the Tri- Nations in 1999 and 2003, and we all know what happened next.
Timetable
Today:South Africa v Australia, Newlands, Cape Town - 3pm (2pm GMT).
June 23rd: South Africa v New Zealand, ABSA Stadium, Durban - 3pm (2pm Irish time).
June 30th: Australia v New Zealand, Melbourne Cricket Ground - 8pm (11am Irish time).
July 7th: Australia v South Africa, Telstra Stadium, Sydney - 8pm (11am Irish time).
July 14th: New Zealand v South Africa, Jade Stadium, Christchurch - 7.35pm (8.35am Irish time).
July 21st: New Zealand v Australia, Eden Park, Auckland - 7.35pm (8.35am Irsh time).
Previous winners
1996: 1st New Zealand, 2nd South Africa, 3rd Australia.
1997: 1st New Zealand, 2nd South Africa, 3rd Australia.
1998: 1st South Africa, 2nd Australia, 3rd New Zealand.
1999: 1st New Zealand, 2nd Australia, 3rd South Africa.
2000: 1st Australia, 2nd New Zealand, 3rd South Africa.
2001: 1st Australia, 2nd New Zealand, 3rd South Africa.
2002: 1st New Zealand, 2nd Australia, 3rd South Africa.
2003: 1st New Zealand, 2nd Australia, 3rd South Africa.
2004: 1st South Africa, 2nd Australia, 3rd New Zealand.
2005: 1st New Zealand, 2nd South Africa, 3rd Australia.
2006: 1st New Zealand, 2nd Australia, 3rd South Africa.
Betting(Paddy Powers): 4/9 New Zealand, 2/1 South Africa, 10/1 Australia.
