South Africa v Ireland: In a strange way, today's second Test at Newlands seems to hinge more on Ireland than South Africa. To a greater degree, we probably know what we're going to get from the Springboks. The bigger imponderable is what condition, mental as much as physical, Ireland are going to be in.
Irish end-of-season tourists aren't unique in psychologically having one foot on the plane for the last game. The danger is probably more acute than ever today after this season, of all seasons. About 48 weeks since the beginning of pre-season last July, 20 or more of which have had the Irish squad in camp, and taking in an unprecedented 15 Test matches, they'd be forgiven for being fed up with rugby and with each other.
We've been here before, most notably with the 33-0 defeat in the Battle of Pretoria six years ago, and another classic case of Holiday Mode Syndrome was the misfiring, last-ditch 27-all draw in Canada four summers ago.
The difference this time is that Ireland, by their loftier standards nowadays, didn't perform a week ago, and so a more pertinent comparison is probably the praiseworthy 32-26 defeat against the Wallabies in Perth five years ago. That performance was borne largely out of a 46-10 thrashing in Ballymore in the first Test.
Similarly, if the residual anger and self-reproach for last week's poor performance in Bloemfontein is the players' prime concern all this week, then a positive reaction and a big performance should happen.
Being the high achieving, positive individual that he is, Brian O'Driscoll yesterday accentuated the positive.
"That's the great thing. We know we have 80 minutes of rugby before our holidays so you can channel all your efforts into those 80 minutes. If you can't dish out 80 minutes of your toughest rugby here, then you shouldn't be here. I think we're professional enough and focused enough to give it that one last hurrah and put in the performance that we said we would last week but didn't produce."
The Springboks were discommoded slightly yesterday by the withdrawal of last week's double try-scoring Bakkies Botha. Given his Bulls second-row partnership with Victor Matfield was their only tried and tested combination on the pitch, it would seem a significant blow.
Botha's replacement, Quinton Davids, is unlikely to have the same barnstorming impact (Geo Cronje is promoted to the bench) around the pitch and in the air, where the onus is now on the Irish lineout to take up the challenge. Against that Matfield was relatively quiet last week, and will surely feel an even greater responsibility to perform in Botha's absence.
A more influential factor still will be the conditions. No matter what corner of the globe the clouds are gathering, O'Sullivan must be getting weary of refuting the same cliched eve-of-match notion that forecast rain will suit his side. There is an 80-per-cent chance of rain this morning, which, although due to clear, is liable the leave the pitch quite wet.
O'Sullivan went in to automode yesterday when maintaining that neither he nor Jake White would want a sodden pitch.
"The playing surface is pristine," he said yesterday after visiting Newlands and expressing the hope that it will drain away sufficiently come kick-off. "If it doesn't, then we'll make plans accordingly."
In perhaps gearing up his team more for trench warfare up front, Jake White has also continually referred to the different climatic conditions of Cape Town. They have the bigger pack and after the encouraging first shots of a bright new era under White last week they'll fancy their chances of doing a number on Ireland's vaunted pack.
Ireland's forward play does need to improve in many areas. Aside from being more accurate with their own lineout and putting more pressure on the John Smith throw than they did a week ago, they have to protect and procure quicker ball, i.e., clear Schalk Burger away from the tackle area.
Providing a better forward platform is undoubtedly one of the keys to what would be a major Irish scalp. Purely as an achievement in itself, for the players and management, without the baggage of history, the allure of the Triple Crown and beating England at Twickenham, becoming the first Irish side to claim a Southern Hemisphere scalp away in a quarter of a century would be right up there.
But even presuming the forwards put Ireland sufficiently on the front foot, then one of the abiding lessons from last week will be that the more often Ireland probe the Boks out wide, the better their chances.
With O'Driscoll operating farther out between Shane Horgan and Geordan Murphy - somehow more likely to be a match-winner on the right than the left - Ireland have the means to hurt the Boks where they looked most vulnerable last week.
Alas, conditions might work against them as, one has to say, might the presence of Joël Jutge. He's a good referee, but so too is Tony Spreadbury, and while it made little difference to the outcome last week the majority of the marginals went against Ireland. There's also, as always in these scenarios, the concern that it might simply be a classic case of a bridge too far.
SOUTH AFRICA: P Montgomery (Newport Gwent Dragons); B Paulse (Stormers), M Joubert (Stormers), W Julies (Cats), J Fourie (Cats); J van der Westhuyzen (Leicester), F du Preez (Bulls); O du Randt (Cats), J Smit (Sharks, capt), E Andrews (Stormers), B Botha (Bulls), V Matfield (Bulls), S Burger (Stormers), P Wannenburg (Bulls), J Cronje (Bulls). Replacements: H Shimange (Cats), CJ van der Linde (Cats), Q Davids (Stormers), G Britz (Cats), J Conradie (Stormers), G du Toit (Stormers), B Russell (Sharks).
IRELAND: G Dempsey (Leinster); G Murphy (Leicester), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, capt), S Horgan (Leinster), T Howe (Ulster); R O'Gara (Munster), P Stringer (Munster); R Corrigan (Leinster), S Byrne (Leinster), J Hayes (Munster), M O'Kelly (Leinster), P O'Connell (Munster), S Easterby (Llanelli), D Wallace (Munster), A Foley (Munster). Replacements: F Sheahan (Munster), M Horan (Munster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), A Quinlan (Munster), G Easterby (Rotherham), D Humphreys (Ulster), K Maggs (Bath).
Referee: Joël Jutge (France).
