THE grand designs and hopes, nurtured on the victories achieved over the United States and more especially Fiji, that this season Ireland would offer a challenge of real substance in the International Championship, have of necessity had to be trimmed to much more modest proportions. The defeats inflicted by Scotland and France have left Ireland with a heavy burden and the threat that a wooden spoon instead of a silver cup, will be the legacy from this season's championship.
Against Wales at Lansdowne Road this afternoon, the Ireland team gets a chance to redeem something from the season and to give their own faithful followers a performance to cheer and lift heart and spirit. The Welsh need is no less acute, for like Ireland, the Welsh go into the match on the back of two championship defeats this season. In fact Wales face the assignment having lost their last seven championship matches, the worst run of defeats in their history since they first contested the championship in 1883.
The statistical background of both teams over the last decade is as disturbing as it is revealing. Ireland has played 42 championship matches and won just nine and drew one. The Welsh have won 13 and drawn one. It is indicative of the unproductive times for both countries that the Welsh and Irish have recorded most of their wins in that time over each other. There is, too, a factor in built in those intimidating figures that the Welsh may see as a boost to their confidence today. They have won at Lansdowne Road on their last two visits and have won in Dublin five times in their last six appearances. In contrast, Ireland beat Wales five times and drew one of their last six visits to Cardiff.
If there was a time when the Irish were deemed the hardest off all sides to overcome on their own soil, the Irish followers have had a meagre portion of success to acclaim and a lot of hard times to endure in the 1990s. Since 1990 Ireland have managed to just twice against Wales in win 1990 and England in 1993 in the championship at Lansdowne Road.
So the background to the match today is such that neither side will be concerned with style or quality. For both, the encounter is about getting a badly needed win however it is attained. If the success should be achieved by a spark of individual genius that will be remembered in the days ahead or the product of creative skill, so much the better, but if it be by a penalty kick, so be it, for the entry in the wins and losses column is the paramount concern and let us not delude ourselves to the contrary.
Despite the fact that Wales have lost to England at Twickenham and Scotland at the Arms Park, their performances have been such that their management team has decided to put their faith in an unchanged team for the third successive time. They have been sufficiently encouraged by what they have seen, to foster the belief that they are on the right course and that the results will come as the team blends into a potent and winning combination. They go into the match today as favourites to get that much needed victory.
The Irish are thus consigned to the role in which they are traditionally deemed most comfortable that of outsiders. That such is the ease against a country rich in rugby history, but chronically short on recent achievement, is its own commentary on two very poor performances in the championship by Ireland.
This Irish side bears little resemblance to the team that played against Scotland and shows six changes from the side that lost by a record margin to France. Granted, circumstances have decreed some of those alterations. The unavailability of Jim Staples and the suspension of Peter Clohessy account for two, while the return of Simon Geoghegan, unavailable against France because of injury, decreed another. After the humiliation against France, however, major remedial action was required. How effective it has been will be revealed this afternoon.
As the game now grows into a big commercial enterprise, money is a major factor on and off the field. But whatever about the £3,000 appearance money and the £1,000 win bonus, the Irish followers want to see motivation that comes from the spirit not prompted by the pocket. They want to see an Ireland performance that embraces the traditional qualities of Irish rugby. If that means kick and chase, harassment of the opposition and non stop commitment at the cost of style, then so be it.
It may, too, be Ireland's best approach against a side extremely well equipped in the line out with the presence of Derwyn Jones and Gareth Llewellyn. They also have a good back row in Emyr Lewis, Hemi Taylor and Gwyn Jones. At Lansdowne Road a few months ago Taylor and Lewis did some damage to Leinster as they prospered on the work of those in front. The back row forwards have, too, been supporting the backs quite well, a point made by Ireland coach Murray Kidd, so the tackling close to the forward exchanges needs to be quick and decisive as it must be in the midfield, where Wales must be closed down and not allowed to create space for the support player.
Ireland will need to vary the line out shrewdly and hooker Allen Clarke's throwing must be accurate, which it invariably is a factor in his selection. Thus Jeremy Davidson, now restored to his more natural second row berth after his spell on the flank Gabriel Fulcher and Victor Costello carry the prime responsibility in this area it is important that they discharge it. ,David Corkery will welcome the fact that he has been moved back to the blind side flank and the presence of Den is McBride gives Ireland what has been lacking on the open side, a man to get to the breakdown quickly and get the ball on the ground.
McBride was a major player in Ireland's last win over Wales in the World Cup last June, he could be very influential again today as the senior player in the pack. What Ireland cannot afford is a repetition of what happened in Paris when line out possession became a liability as possession and ground were lost.
Ireland must match Wales in the set pieces, if not there could be trouble ahead and they must also rock with conviction and maul when prudent with belief and authority. Turning over hard won possession is not alone a prodigal waste, it also has fatal consequences as we saw against France and indeed Scotland. I expect to see Ireland show the kind of conviction in the loose that has been lacking and here McBride's presence could offer the inspiration.
The days when Wales had a back line that could win matches on a meagre share of the ball are gone. They have a youngster at outside half in Arwel Thomas who has a precocious talent that carries within it a risk element, but at times the risks pay off as they did when he engineered a try against England at Twickenham. So a careful watch must be kept on him and constant vigilance will be necessity.
Ireland's scrum half Niall Hogan has been pardoned a very poor performance against France and given the responsibility of captaincy. The leadership will not prove a burden, neither must his passing to David Humphreys. Humphreys has the ability to be a key man for Ireland. He is fine kicker, a very good distributor and is not afraid to make a break. But he must be given a good service to bring those talents into play.
It is time Jonathan Bell delivered on the promise he revealed a year ago. He needs a really big game and there could be no better time to produce it. He will play inside centre today with the full hearted Maurice Field outside. The Irish wings Geoghegan and Niall Woods both have tremendous pace. Let us hope they get a chance to use it whether in pursuit of the well placed kick or from attacking movement.
Ireland's new full back Simon Mason is an accomplished player, so let us hope he proves it and that his Lansdowne Road debut will be memorable for all the right reasons.
The very least the Irish supporters deserve today is a performance of character and depth. The opening 20 minutes could be crucial and, if Ireland concede points then as they did against Scotland, they will be chasing the game.
Having referred to statistical elements at the start, I will end on a more encouraging statistic. Having beaten Wales last March and last June, Ireland get the chance to make it three wins in a row. It is almost 30 years since Ireland last scored a hat trick of wins over Wales. That would be a welcome entry in the ledger after this, the 100th match between the countries.
