Fine margins make the difference in Formula One and, gratifyingly for the Chinese Grand Prix, the differential at the front of the grid can barely be measured. A season that started with much tighter competition between Ferrari and Mercedes than anticipated has every sign of being impossible to call in Shanghai, but, unusually given how strong they have been for the past four seasons, it is Mercedes who are having to fine-tune their focus to meet Ferrari’s threat.
Lewis Hamilton did top the time sheets for Mercedes in first practice but, when the leaders ran qualifying simulations in practice two, there was nothing in it. As scene-setters for the race go, this was a mighty opening, with one-tenth of a second separating the front four.
Hamilton again was quickest, but only 0.007 seconds ahead of Kimi Räikkönen’s Ferrari. The British driver suffered a slight oversteer in the final corner, but then the Finn also lost a fraction passing a Sauber. There was nothing between them and little behind. Valtteri Bottas in the second Mercedes was three-hundredths back, with Sebastian Vettel one-tenth down.
Hamilton’s qualifying form in Shanghai is incomparable; he has pole six times from 11 meetings but, with margins this fine, nothing is a given. The British driver needs one of his best performances, and now more than ever. After Vettel won the first two rounds, he leads Hamilton by 17 points in the world championship. Narrowing the gap is crucial but Hamilton believes it can be done.
“I arrived here thinking I want to win the next 19 races, the title is not won and lost in two races,” he said. “The experiences of the last two grands prix strengthen you but I definitely don’t want to fall any further behind. I feel hungry, we are not a wounded beast, and I still believe we are the best team with the potential to win races and fight for this world championship.”
Software problem
Yet Mercedes have work to do. In Australia a software problem cost Hamilton a likely win. In Bahrain a grid penalty set him back from the off and third was a good result. But his race was marred by problems with radio communication, revealed this week by Mercedes’ race engineer, Andrew Shovlin, to have been caused by the microphones being out of position in Hamilton’s balaclava.
Ferrari are going to be hard to beat here. It is a good track for us but it will be closer than you think
Equally the team seem to have suffered some in-race conservatism. In Australia Hamilton did not push because they believed they had the pace required. In Bahrain Bottas failed to catch Vettel at the death, again having not pushed as hard as he might early in the race, when the team thought they had a strategic margin over Ferrari. A more aggressive outlook may have to be adopted.
These are the tiny margins that may define this season and they are noticeable given that Mercedes’ dominance of the turbo-hybrid era has been marked by a team executing every aspect of racing almost flawlessly. Their success has been hard-earned but this year there is no room for complacency. A win in China would be the kick-start they need but it will clearly not be easy.
“Ferrari are going to be hard to beat here,” Hamilton said. “It is a good track for us but it will be closer than you think, so we need to bring our A-game every weekend.”
Ferrari, in contrast, have implemented Vettel’s opening two races perfectly and the Scuderia are firmly on the front foot. The course of the season will ebb and flow according to characteristics of circuits, but they are in no mood to relinquish their advantage in Shanghai.
“We are happy for the results we have but we know that the season will be long,” said the team principal, Maurizio Arrivabene. “In China we will see Mercedes and Red Bull quite strong but we are not here to surrender.”
