Has the Five Nations lost a little of its lustre? Can it really be endangered by the possibility of an Anglo-French breakaway to form an elite competition with the southern hemisphere giants? Surely not. This is, after all, the most enduring and cherished of rugby's traditions - something the southern hemisphere had looked down upon, yet envied, until their Tri-Nations emerged.

Somehow though, it doesn't seem quite as enticing and exciting as it used to be. We should never be hostages to tradition, but somewhere along the line there has to be an appreciation of tradition if the future is to mean anything.

Yet all is changing. The Five Nations has already sacrificed its customary starting slot in January, when the rest of the sporting world was either meandering along or was in hibernation. Hence, it will finish in April, a month that sees the climax to other sports.

Then there is the break with the past in scattering kick-off times and even moving some games to Sundays. There is the advent of Sky and disruption to traditional terrestrial television coverage of the tournament. The England-Ireland game will be screened live only by Sky. ITV were able to procure the rights to a delayed transmission only, but Sky apparently have rejected RTÉ's offer. So that game looks as if it will not be shown on RTÉ at all. Damn it, worse still, no Beeb and no Bill McLaren. Something's not going to be right with the world. And then, to top it off, the Italians are about to gatecrash the party.

Taken individually, none of these things would undermine the Five Nations in themselves, but taken together they amount to an upheaval. The root cause of all of this evil is, of course, money. Dastardly money. Sky pay better and that's all that seems to matter (even if, as in the case of the European Cup, it has meant a huge drop in television audiences this season compared to last).

This is especially true of the English Rugby Union who, of all the unions, seem to have less respect for the game's past. England's autumnal glut of internationals against the southern hemisphere sides also brought a tidy windfall and was surely a taster for more regular meetings with the big three from the south.

Nothing is sacred, and if it is financially more viable for the Anglo-French connection to have more global warfare then that is what will happen. Perhaps rugby will become like golf, with either a north-south competition or the World Cup becoming biennial, much like the Ryder Cup.

But the Five Nations is still very much part both of the French and English culture. It's fundamental to the Celtic nations, of course, and the advent of the Italians to a Six Nations will at least add a new dimension to the tournament.

Heaven knows, it could do with it. Right now, there seems to be more uncertainty over the future of the Five Nations itself than the destiny of this year's championship - which is to be decided, if we are to believe some voices, on Saturday. Conventional wisdom decrees that the showdown between France and England at the new Stade de France will ultimately be the grand slam decider, while Ireland and Scotland are already slugging it out for the wooden spoon. It's that simple.

Sport, thankfully, still has a wonderful capacity for ensuring that things don't always work out that simply. Similar talk preceded the 1993 championship, in which England were brilliantly, nay beautifully, stunned by both Ireland and Wales. The following year, Ireland repeated the feat at Twickenham and, with Wales also putting one over on France, our Celtic brethren were able to pinch the trophy, admittedly in anticlimactic fashion and on points difference after losing at Twickenham.

THOSE YEARS apart, Scotland (ominously) also frequently upset the apple-cart, but the class divide has never been so pronounced. Each nation has played 32 championship matches in the 1990s, and England lead the way with a win-draw-loss record of 260-6, followed by France on 20-0-12. The Scots, magnificently, are not far behind on 17 wins, one draw and 14 defeats. Cast adrift however, are Wales (8-1-23) and Ireland (7-2-23).

Nor is the advent of professionalism likely to stem this trend. True, the English club scene has been inundated with overseas players, leaving coach Clive Woodward with seriously thin resources in certain positions such as out-half and hooker.

Against that, however, the elite English players have become even more concentrated around a few clubs, while the competition has possibly intensified. Gone are the days when England might field players from Preston Grasshoppers (as they did with Wade Dooley in 1993 at Lansdowne Road).

Retaining the white jersey after a poor performance and/or defeat appears to be more difficult. While it is true that Ireland's shock win at Twickenham a year later ultimately denied Will Carling's team another grand slam, in 1993 they could afford to lose what was to them a relatively academic match and still be sure of their Lions' places, never mind English ones. With rugby now a livelihood, English players can afford no such slackness. Lose your place, lose your pay.

On their pre-Christmas form, culminating in that 23-23 draw with the best side in the world, England are entitled to start favourites. Watching it again on video reinforces the belief that England took almost every chance that came their way, while the All Blacks untypically spurned a good half dozen.

Yet England looked a good deal further down the road in a shorter space of time than France did in the abysmal 51-10 defeat to South Africa which copperfastened series defeats to the Wallabies and Springboks since last year's Grand Slam.

Of the Celtic trio, you could probably throw them into a bag and draw lots at the moment. Wales, though, look much the most settled and developed side of the three, with some real menace on the gain line in the Quinnells, and a playmaker and a goalkicker to ignite a well proven back line.

It may be no coincidence that the Scots and the Irish draw so many of their players from England. Better players per se probably, but as yet not discernibly better players for their country.

But these things are not cast in stone. It's easy to forget that form, both collective and individual, can fluctuate over four games and 10 weeks. The thing about the Lansdowne Road game is that the winners could really develop into something more than mere wooden spoon avoiders - witness the Scots two years ago.

An upset or two to shake up the whole tournament would be nice, all the better if it came from Ireland. Realistically though, two home wins out of four decent performances would constitute a very good campaign. Ruddy marvellous actually.