The winners of the nine European groups automatically qualify.

One of the nine group runners-up will miss out on a place in the play-offs for the four remaining qualifying slots. Those games will be played over two legs on November 14th and 18th – the draw takes place on October 19th in Zurich.

Group nine has five teams, one less than all the other groups, so when calculating the best runners-up the results from matches played against the bottom teams in groups one to eight will be discounted.

The criteria used to determine the eight best runners-up are: (1) total points, (2) goal difference, (3) goals scored, (4) goals scored away from home, (5) disciplinary record, (6) drawing of lots based on those criteria.

With results against the bottom teams in each group discounted, the ranking of the current second-placed teams is:

If this was the final runners-up table the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would squeeze in to the play-offs on goal difference ahead of Macedonia, but by the time the remaining games are played the table will, most probably, look significantly different – Portugal, Greece, Poland, Germany, Turkey, Ukraine, Serbia and Scotland, to name just eight, could still finish as group runners-up.

What will be a crucial factor in determining the ranking of the runners-up is which teams finish bottom in their groups – remember, results against the bottom teams won’t count in this ranking table.

Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Armenia and the Faroe Islands are unlikely to avoid coming last, but things could change in groups two, four and eight – the Republic of Ireland’s group.

Georgia are currently bottom of group eight, which means the Republic’s two wins over them (and the three goals scored, including two away from home) are discounted in the table above.

Even if the Republic were to beat Montenegro in Dublin next month last year’s 0-0 draw in Podgorica would mean that just four points (and no away goals) would be added to their tally if Montenegro avoided finishing bottom.

Should they come second, then, the Republic would have a better ranking in the runners-up table if Montenegro finish bottom of the group.

Both Georgia and Montenegro could yet finish above Cyprus – whether or not that would suit the Republic depends on the result in Nicosia tonight.

– Mary Hannigan