If State Man appears likely to finish off a spotless season and record a perfect 10th Grade success in Friday evening’s Punchestown festival feature, he still looks set to lose out in the stardust stakes.
It has become something of a cliche to label the Champion Hurdle winner as underappreciated. But it doesn’t mean it isn’t valid, since his career record is remarkable by any standard.
Runner-up on his single start in France before joining Willie Mullins, State Man has only been beaten by Constitution Hill when he has stood up. The sole other blemish on his 14-race record was a fall on his Irish debut in 2021.
Since then, he has accumulated nine top-flight victories, with four more in the bag already this season and Friday’s €300,000 Boodles Champion Hurdle apparently his for the taking again.
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Only defeat at Cheltenham last year by Constitution Hill – the very opposite to State Man in terms of charisma – prevented a faultless five-timer that State Man is short odds to complete this time.
However, even with Constitution Hill on the sidelines, State Man’s ‘does what it says on the tin’ solidity probably won’t compete in public anticipation terms with an appearance by his stable companion Ballyburn 35 minutes later.
If State Man is short odds to confirm Cheltenham form with Irish Point, then Ballyburn will be all but unbackable in the Alanna Champion Novice Hurdle.
Given how Mullins has said all options are open to the spectacular Cheltenham Festival winner, then his handful of opponents, three of which are stablemates, face a huge task in trying to upset the apple cart.
Such is Ballyburn’s reputation that he’s already being billed as a potential Champion Hurdle candidate for 2025, along with the Mullins mare Lossiemouth, who lines up at Punchestown on Saturday.
Given he’s the reigning title holder, and at the peak of his powers, State Man might be miffed if he realised how taken for granted he is. Or he might be true to form and not care, content with doing what he does best, which is win.
Either way, the chestnut is a talent at the peak of his powers and boasts a stellar CV that testifies to class and consistency.
Irish Point got to within a length and a quarter of State Man at Cheltenham when ground conditions were testing. Punchestown’s two miles isn’t as strenuous a test and ground conditions are very different. For a horse able to win at the top level at three miles, it’s hardly an ideal scenario.
The reputational sizzle around Ballyburn is such that any trip or discipline might come easy to him.
His trainer appears to have been among the last swept up in the hype around his latest potential superstar, but a devastating success at Cheltenham in March has made him a believer too, provoking comparisons with past luminaries such as Faugheen and Vautour.
With State Man, Lossiemouth and Mystical Power apparently already in the squad for next year’s Champion Hurdle, Mullins hasn’t ruled out going down that championship route with Ballyburn before any potential long-term tilt at the Gold Cup.
Considering Dawn Run is the only horse ever to pull off that double it is heady billing unlikely to survive any shock hiccup here.
Admittedly the bare Cheltenham form hasn’t been franked since while Slade Steel, the horse Ballyburn beat at the Dublin Racing Festival, failed to add to his own Cheltenham success here on Tuesday.
Jetara, with her 7lb sex allowance, might be the one to shake up Ballyburn into revealing what more might be under the bonnet.
Mullins earlier will try to extend his remarkable dominance of the 2½-mile handicap chase. The champion trainer has won it for the last five years, and seven times in the last eight years. Four of them have come with horses carrying major weights such as Kilcruit (11.12) a year ago, while Asterion Forlonge, Real Steel and Kemboy carried 11.10.
Mister Policeman’s home reputation suggests he might be in the same league but he hasn’t been convincing in translating it to the track. The Mullins second-string Tactical Move could be a better option.
Gavin Cromwell’s Brides Hill looks a major contender for the Grade Two mares’ chase while Its On The Line can successfully defend his Hunters’ Chase title.
