When, or if, City Of Troy lines up for the Breeders’ Cup Classic it won’t be some afterthought.
For Aidan O’Brien and the colt’s Coolmore ownership it will be all-in to try to finally win the race they covet more than any other. They are rolling the dice and betting the lot on a couple of fateful minutes on the dirt at Del Mar on November 2nd.
Among the races being sacrificed at the altar of this Holy Grail for racing’s most powerful team are Leopardstown’s Champion Stakes and October’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris. It used to be said the Derby establishes and the Arc confirms: City Of Troy won at Epsom in June but at this point in his career it appears not even Europe’s other great prize is big enough for him.
That’s because the ultimate stakes for winning America’s richest race dwarf the $7 million prize money. Del Mar, just north of San Diego on the Pacific coast, is where the turf famously meets the surf. For Coolmore, the Classic is where the dirt could meet commercial nirvana.
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A top horse proven on European grass but capable of transferring that class to dirt in the US too is a beau ideal for a future stallion. The 2022 Classic winner Flightline has been valued at $184 million, and all he did on grass was eat it. If City Of Troy can successfully traverse the codes, the breeding world is his and his owners’ lucrative oyster.
But it’s not just about ridiculous money. There’s some all too recognisable plain old obstinance at play too.
It’s 24 years since O’Brien saddled Giants Causeway to finish a narrow runner-up to Tiznow at Churchill Downs. It looked only a matter of when before one of Ballydoyle’s elite performers would go one better, but none have. John Magnier hasn’t built the most successful bloodstock empire ever seen on throwing his Panama hat at anything. It’s got kind of personal at this point.
There have been 13 attempts involving 15 other O’Brien-trained horses to land the Classic.
What they mostly had in common was that they came at the end of long and busy European campaigns, little more than hit-and-hope jobs with negligible commercial downside. All they illustrated was how versatile a talent Giants Causeway was. France’s Aracangues remains the only European horse to win the Classic on dirt in a freakish 133/1 result in 1993.
In many ways it’s an unfair ask. Racing on grass and racing on dirt are similar in the way rugby league and rugby union are. The basis point is the same, and a lot of it looks quite similar, except the nuances are different. So is the vernacular. Speed in dirt racing is at the start. On grass it’s at the end. One’s about extended grind, the other quickening up. It’s a rare horse that’s proficient at both.
City Of Troy might be such a rarity. His young sire Justify – Coolmore’s big hope to replace the prepotent Galileo – was a US Triple Crown winner. His best son’s dominant run style was stamped all over his victory in York’s International last week, making all and relishing the Knavesmire’s long straight to burn off his opposition. In theory, dirt might even suit him more.
But City Of Troy is out of a Galileo mare, and Classic wipeouts in the past for such as Gleneagles and Churchill underline a meagre record on dirt for Galileo’s best progeny. The counter argument will be that when those two Guineas winners tried their luck it was very much afterthought territory. That’s not the case now.
Victory for City will not only deliver Coolmore perhaps the sweetest victory of all but also cement Justify’s status as the world’s hottest young stallion. It’s a win-win scenario to trump all others. But with the potential stratospheric reward comes some not inconsiderable risk.
Maybe City Of Troy will deliver his statement performance in Del Mar. But he might not. He mightn’t even get there. Injury can always be just a step away. And if either negative scenario occurs, it will be the end of a curiously equivocal career, one where undoubted top-class accomplishment has still failed to live up to some exaggerated billing.
That York success boosted his official rating to 128. It puts him joint-top right now with the Dubai World Cup winner Laurel River in global rankings. It’s a super figure already equal to the one last year’s Arc hero Ace Impact accomplished. But it’s significantly off last year’s world champion Equinox who was finally rated a full half-stone better on 135.
That 135 equalled Baeed’s career best in 2022 when he had to play second fiddle to Flightline’s 140. It’s the same career-high figure recorded by Frankel and for a colt acclaimed by his ownership as “our Frankel” that is the level he inevitably gets measured by in any ‘greatness stakes’. Good as he is, he ain’t nowhere near that, yet.
Maybe he will pull off a spectacular in Del Mar to justify the hype. But plenty is being passed up in that expectation. O’Brien has suggested Ryan Moore would like to go for the Arc, still a benchmark of racing excellence, and a logical option for a horse that’s run on nothing but grass. Passing it up is a statement of intent. But it’s a colossal punt with plenty riding on the outcome.
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
The Curragh hosts the Cambridgeshire tomorrow where PLUME NOIR (4.35) could provide some betting value. She failed to fire when favourite for the big Mile at Galway but ran well at HQ before that and her rating has dropped 2lbs for that Ballybrit misfire.
The Round Tower Stakes’ six furlongs looks perfect for IDES OF MARCH (2.50) who impressed over course and distance last time.
