Cheltenham wound up a bonanza but the odds are sliding dramatically against an Irish success in Saturday week's Aintree Grand National with bookmakers rating the chances of a first Irish-trained victory in the world's most famous steeplechase since 2007 at 4/1, just a month after the price was 6/4.
Only two Irish-trained horses currently appear among the top 14 in ante-post betting lists and both of those, Colbert Station and Prince De Beauchene, are 33/1 shots. The Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up, On His Own, was favourite for Liverpool immediately after the festival but Willie Mullins has indicated the horse will instead wait for Punchestown at the end of next month.
That leaves Teaforthree, third in last year’s National, and eighth in the Gold Cup 10 days ago, as low as 8/1 favourite for Crabbies-sponsored event, which will be worth £1 million for the first time.
It’s a long way removed from the Irish dominance between 1999 and 2007 which saw half-a dozen Irish-trained winners, culminating in Silver Birch’s victory seven years ago.
Big Shu and Double Seven remain outsiders whose odds could contract as the big race gets closer although the Paddy Power firm still reckon the National will prove to be the biggest betting event of the calendar whether or not Irish horses are fancied. “The reality is that ante-post betting accounts for less than five per cent of the take and it is mostly about the day of the race,” said Paddy Power yesterday.
“There is a small bias towards local horses here in Ireland and it is true that betting on the National is a little quieter so far but on the day people will basically be betting on horses that the media are talking about,” he added.
Power described the comparatively light Irish representation at the top of the list of fancied horses as a “return to the bad old days” between 1975 and 1999 when Ireland drew a National blank but also pointed towards the absence of the injured Ruby Walsh as significant this year.
"People do follow jockeys in the National, especially Ruby and Tony McCoy, and the race will lose something by not having Ruby there," he said.
Entry stage
Significantly Colbert Station is one of 16 horses left in Saturday's Grade Two Webster Cup Chase at Navan after yesterday's five-day entry stage.
Trainer Ted Walsh has kept the option open to run JP McManus’s horse in the €37,500 two-and-a-half-mile event while another National entry left in is Bog Warrior, one of five possible for Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown Stud. Others include the Grade One winner Roi Du Mee and Rathlin, who has his own Liverpool option next week in the Topham.
Rathlin’s trainer, Mouse Morris, has another Webster Cup string to his bow in Baily Green, a faller behind Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham. “He was going well and was just coming into the race at the time. I think he would have run very well so I was disappointed for the horse,” Morris reported.
Willie Mullins has two left in Saturday’s highlight, including last year’s Irish National runner-up Away We Go. His other hope is the prolific mare Tarla.
This season’s Irish National will take place 16 days after Aintree and will be run under Boylesports sponsorship for the first time.
“The last two winners were big outsiders and came from small family yards in Meath and Westmeath, which proves that the dream of winning the Irish Grand National can be realised,” Fairyhouse’s manager Peter Roe said yesterday.
