Times may be uncertain but one old "normal" is set apply at the start of Leopardstown's Christmas festival as Willie Mullins saddles a hot favourite for the St Stephen's Day feature.
One of Mullins’s current top prospects Ferny Hollow will face a handful of opponents in the €100,000 Racing Post Novice Chase.
In the past decade some of the champion trainer’s biggest names have pitched up in the first Grade One of the Christmas period and with some mixed results.
Douvan and Min are among those to have lived up to expectations with odds-on victories.
Some, however, have fluffed their festive lines and proved expensive to holiday punters.
A couple of years ago Laurina barely raised a gallop, while in 2013 Champagne Fever struggled home a weary third to Defy Logic.
Most spectacularly of all Vautour blew out as a 1-4 favourite in 2014 behind Gordon Elliott’s Clarcam.
Once again it looks like Elliott is the main threat to his great rival as he pitches his four-year-old filly Riviere d’Etel in against Ferny Hollow with all the age and sex allowances in her favour.
It is always a significant contest in terms of establishing the season’s novice pecking order, but there’s more immediate focus too as this will be the first race run on Leopardstown’s steeplechase course this Christmas.
Over the last numbers of years the track has found itself in the spotlight for uncomfortable reasons due to its drainage system working too well.
The condition of the course has been heavily criticised by some high-profile figures, claiming it can get too quick for National Hunt horses.
Earlier this year a turf consultancy firm was brought in to try and get it to retain more moisture.
As a result there has been extensive watering recently and that continued on Wednesday despite the possibility of up to 15mms of rainfall before Sunday’s action.
The going on all the courses at Leopardstown is currently 'good to yielding'.
A similar surface would be the quickest Ferny Hollow has ever raced on in a short but spectacular career to date.
Winner of the 2020 Cheltenham bumper, he beat no less than Bob Olinger on his sole start over flights before sustaining an injury.
He returned to action after over a year off at Punchestown earlier this month when proving four lengths too good for one of his rivals on Sunday, Coeur Sublime.
If some weren’t overly impressed by the performance it is reasonable for allowances to be made for rustiness alone. Ferny Hollow was also notably resolute at the business end.
As well as weight he also has to concede experience to Riviere d’Etel, who is unbeaten in her three starts over fences to date.
Jack Kennedy was on board for the first of them and returns to action in time for this Grade One opportunity having recovered from a dislocated shoulder.
Riviere d’Etel has made all in her last two races, which have been on similar ground to what’s currently the case at Leopardstown.
Similar tactics might make her a target for Ferny Hollow but could also allow a chance to test his jumping.
Last year’s Christmas action was behind closed doors but it didn’t prevent Mullins domination at Leopardstown with 13 winners over the four days. They included six at Grade One level.
The full power of his Closutton team often comes to bear at this time of year but he isn’t represented in Sunday’s main support event, the Grade Two Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle.
Instead Elliott looks to hold a potent hand with both Fil Dor and Britzka lining up.
Fil Dor has a penalty for beating Lunar Power at the Winter Festival at Fairyhouse but looked a snug winner on that occasion. He looks up to pulling off a double that Zanahiyr managed in 2020.
Paul Townend is hot favourite to be crowned leading jockey at the festival and can get off to a flier in the first two maiden hurdles.
The French recruit State Man is bred to be useful and has the plus of a run over hurdles at Auteuil last year when runner-up to the useful Busselton.
Most anticipation though will surround Sir Gerhard’s debut over flights.
The ex-Elliott star got an inspired ride from Rachael Blackmore to land the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last year. He was subsequently third to his stable companion Kilcruit at Punchestown.
Kilcruit was the shortest-priced beaten favourite in decades when beaten on his own hurdling debut at Cork earlier this month, although it will be a surprise if a similar fate awaits Sir Gerhard.
Defan enjoyed no luck at all on his last start at Thurles and could go well off a low weight in Sunday’s handicap chase if ground conditions remain decent.
