It's time to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and, I'm sure it doesn't need me to point out, it ain't going to be easy. To go into this evening's game with any degree of confidence we needed to do a great deal better at home than we managed. We are up against it: the Belgians are in the driving seat and it is up to us to dislodge them.

For Ireland to qualify two things must happen. First, we need to produce a better performance than we did in any of the qualifying matches. Second, we need the Belgians to be as poor in this game as they were good at Lansdowne Road. After that game, Mick McCarthy said he didn't feel that we could play as badly as we did in the first leg or that Georges Leekens's side could play as well. That may be true, but unfortunately the variations required are quite dramatic.

The sad fact is that on those occasions when we have come up against a side which is able to cope with our game, with our physical approach and our attempts to unsettle people, then we have immediately found ourselves in considerable trouble. The Belgians coped comfortably with us a couple of weeks ago and it is difficult to imagine what we will be able to do to alter that situation this time around.

The only consolation is that things might have been a good deal worse. Had Belgium taken the chances that came their way in Dublin, we would have been going into this game trailing by two or three goals and with the tie completely dead. Instead, we have a chance.

Our limitations are fairly obvious. We lack pace in key positions and our offensive approach is woefully predictable. Last time out we managed to produce just one decent chance from play - Tony Cascarino's header off Gary Kelly's cross - and if we don't dramatically improve on that then we are done for.

The loss of Denis Irwin is a blow, but at this stage we must simply hope that Ray Houghton is passed fit to play. Even at this stage of his career he is an important part of our set-up. In terms of our potential sources of goals, we can ill-afford to start without him.

For Houghton, along with several other players, this game will be a major test. Does he or Andy Townsend still have a big game in them? Can Ken Cunningham and Ian Harte cope, as a defensive partnership, with a high-quality attack, containing pace and a high degree of technical ability? Are Tony Cascarino and David Connolly capable of making an impression, individually or together, against a defence familiar with their approach and selected specifically to counter them?

Assuming McCarthy doesn't depart from the tried and trusted through the middle of the team, we'll find out this evening. In each instance, the answer had better be yes.

For Connolly, in particular, this is the sort of game which presents a huge opportunity for him to enhance his reputation. With his speed and agility the youngster may be able to cause his marker problems and get into the sort of positions from which we just might snatch a goal.

The presence of Houghton, with his ability to thread the ball through the defence, will be important for the Feyenoord striker, while the mobility and timing of Alan McLoughlin will be vital if the Reading player-coach is not fit to start.

It seems quite possible that McCarthy will juggle things in order to bring in Lee Carsley, while there will have to be changes, at least one anyway, in the wider positions to replace Irwin. There should also be at least one more for it would seem to me to be a mistake to start Mark Kennedy this time around.

The 21-year-old did not do as badly as has been made out in some quarters in the first game, but given his situation at club level, he simply can't be expected to be match fit at present. In those circumstances, if you start him, it's only a matter of when you have to bring him off. Keeping him on the bench, with the option of throwing him on late if required, seems a better option than that.

McCarthy, of course, will argue that Kennedy is one of the few players that we have that can turn a game like this in our favour and he may have a point, but in the opening stages his presence would be too much of a gamble on a night when experience and patience will be valuable commodities.

He may well end up in the thick of it by the time our best chances arise anyway, for it is difficult to see too much coming the way of the visitors early on. It would, of course, be wonderful to score in the opening stages, but it is more important that we do not concede one.

We really don't have the ability to chase a game against decent opposition. If we allow the home side to get that sort of advantage, then it is pretty much impossible to see us recovering the situation.

McCarthy and his players have said that they hope to capitalise on the home side's inclination to press forward, but that is not likely to become particularly apparent in the first half. Careful containment for the first 60 minutes might make the home crowd a little impatient and if we can, perhaps with a couple of fresh pairs of legs, start to catch them at the back at that stage then we will be in there with a shout.

It is, however, all a bit of a long shot. The last time we were in this position was a couple of years ago in Anfield where a clear-cut defeat marked the end of the road for Jack Charlton and a couple of players. That was a significant stage in the team's transition and one way or the other, we are once again at a fork in the road.

Either we will have the luxury of a trip to the World Cup finals with virtually no burden of expectation - a swansong for the veterans, a precious first taste of the big time for the new generation and our FIFA seeding intact - or we will look to prune back some more in time for the start of what is bound to be a very difficult European Championship qualifying tournament.

Each route has consequences which stretch much further into the future than the summer of next year, but the one we take will be decided in just 90 minutes this evening. Which one will it be? My heart says one way, my head the other.

(In an interview with Emmet Malone).