Argentina v Mexico: If first-round form means anything, then Argentina should cruise past Mexico and into the quarter-finals when the two teams meet in Leipzig this evening. No side in Germany has looked more like the real thing than Argentina - mentally and physically tough, strong in defence, hardworking in midfield, outrageously talented up front and inspired by Juan Roman Riquelme, arguably the player of the tournament.
Recent history, however, gives Mexico cause for hope. In July 2004, they beat Argentina 1-0 in the Copa America while last summer they lost 6-5 in a semi-final, penalty shoot-out at the Confederations Cup here in Germany. Recent history, though, is one thing and Germany 2006 first-round form another. In a 2-1 defeat by Portugal and a 0-0 draw with Angola, Mexico showed limitations which suggest that their World Cup road comes to an end in Leipzig.
In contrast, Argentina were impressive in beating a useful Ivory Coast team, sublime in that infamous 6-0 drubbing of the unhappy Serbs and full of real politik in a 0-0 draw with Holland that satisfied both camps.
Not surprisingly, the mood in the Argentina camp is distinctly bouyant even if captain Roberto Ayala was making all the right, respectful noises yesterday. "Mexico will not be at all easy as opponents.They have made matters difficult for us the previous times we played them. They have the same chance as us," he said.
"We'll try to prevent them from being comfortable on the ball and when we attack, we'll attempt the sort of varied attacking options we've shown up to now."
All the indications are that Argentina coach Jose Pekerman will revert to the side which started against Ivory Coast and Serbia, meaning that Hernan Crespo and Javier Saviola will again lead the attack, supported by Riquelme. Super subs Lionel Messi and Oscar Tevez are likely to again start on the bench while Gabriel Heinze and Juan Pablo Sorin return to defence.
Pekerman makes one enforced change with injured right back Nicoala Burdisso being replaced by Fabrizio Coloccini.
It says a lot for the strength of the Argentina squad that a player of Messi's ability can be left out. And the Barcelona star has been told by one of the side's elder statesmen to enjoy himself and not fret too much. Messi hopes to mark his 19th birthday today at some stage after giving a scathing self-assessment of his own performance in the draw against Holland. While that judgment said a lot about the player's growing maturity after a troublesome thigh injury, Roberto Ayala takes a different perspective.
A veteran of three World Cup finals, the Valencia defender said: "While it is good Lionel can criticise himself, the pressure should be on the older players."
Mexico received a welcome boost with the news that their all-time leading goal scorer, Bolton's Jared Borgetti, has recovered from a thigh injury and is expected to start.
Unlike many of his colleagues at these finals, 32-year-old Borgetti can hardly claim to be exhausted after a frustrating season at Bolton where he was little used.
He is likely to start alongside Jose Francisco Fonseca with the only other Mexican team change being that of Brazilian-born midfielder Antonio Naelson in place of the suspended Luis Perez.
Like his opposite number Ayala, Mexican captain and Barcelona defender Rafael Marquez was also making the right sounds yesterday.
"The team continue to show poise and character . . . we have a new opportunity now and we can't let it slip," he said.
Despite those fighting words, it's Argentina to win.
Argentina (4-3-3)
Abbondanzieri; Coloccini, Ayala, Heinze, Sorin; Rodriguez, Mascherano, Cambiasso; Riquelme; Saviola, Crespo
Mexico (4-1-3-2)
Sanchez; Mendez, Marquez, Osorio, Salcido; Pineda; Torrado, Naelson, Pardo; Borgetti, Fonseca
