RACING/Derby preview: As befits a maximum field of 20, today's big race has any number of permutations but Derby 2003 could fundamentally boil down to one question: Is Refuse To Bend a great racehorse? To win he damn near will have to be.

Great winners of the 2,000 Guineas (Tudor Minstrel, Dancing Brave) have failed to double up in the Derby. So have the merely brilliant (El Gran Senor, Blushing Groom) and just the plain old good (Mystiko, Doyoun.)

But the records indicate that only seminal names can carry that Guineas winning speed over the extra half mile of Epsom's unique roller coaster.

Nashwan was the last in 1989. Before him we're talking Nijinsky (1970) and Sir Ivor (1968.) We're also talking enduring class. Is Refuse To Bend up to that standard? The honest answer on what we have seen so far is no, but that is what we have seen in four unbeaten races from a colt whose approach to life is to get the job done with the minimum amount of fuss.

That he had the fizzing speed to win at Newmarket must have surprised even those closest to him who had been predicting a Derby classic route for Refuse To Bend at the start of the season.

It's an irony which won't have escaped Dermot Weld that that Guineas success has probably raised more question marks about the horse than if he had been a running-on fourth.

Unlike his colleagues Aidan O'Brien and John Oxx, Weld has never won the Derby but anticipation hasn't let logic interfere with how he sees Refuse To Bend's chance.

"He is certainly the best miler I've ever trained and he is built like a perfect miler, big-quartered and powerful, with a sort of sprint fibre to him. Which means stamina is my big worry," Weld acknowledged yesterday.

"Like everyone else, I don't know if he will stay. He is very laid back, a joy to train and it's a calculated risk to run him in the Derby. But I don't see too many downsides, and possibly quite a lot of upsides," Weld added.

Not since a 19-year-old Walter Swinburn won on Shergar has a jockey won the Derby on his race debut but Refuse To Bend's rider, Pat Smullen, will see that as a challenge rather than anything negative. And it's not as if he won't know who he is up against.

It is remarkable to see racing's blue riband event dominated so thoroughly by horses trained in Ireland, and by a spread of trainers, rather than just from Ballydoyle.

Nine winners of the great race have emerged from the south Tipperary power base and Aidan O'Brien is chasing a huge piece of history after the victories of Galileo and High Chaparral.

Fourteen other trainers have had back-to-back winners: no one has ever done the treble and O'Brien has come in force with a quartet of classic hopes.

Bookmakers are dreading a huge pay-out on Brian Boru if the winter favourite can come out on top. He is Michael Kinane's choice but High Chaparral proved last year that even Kinane can pick wrong on the big day.

The brilliant Belgian rider Christophe Soumillon is on Alberto Giacometti, who represents Dalakhani form from the Prix Lupin, form that may yet emerge as the best in Europe.

In his typically understated way, John Oxx continues to provide enough positive vibes for Alamshar's chance although the wet weather yesterday will not have helped his chance.

"Fast ground allows him to use his turn of foot," Oxx said but jockey John Murtagh was not too perturbed yesterday and reported: "It won't hinder his chance, but it might help the others. As long as it is not soft he will be fine."

Alamshar has followed the classic Ballysax-Derrinstown route here, his 2-0 career score against Brian Boru looks to tell its own story in that particular duel.

Although it is dangerous to be presumptuous, the only home runner who looks to hold a real chance might be Kris Kin but the evidence suggests an all-Irish finish.

That final Epsom hill has caught out many champions and provided the ultimate test for centuries. If Refuse To Bend can pass it this time we may well be looking at something special. It's worth betting that we end up doing just that.

FORECAST

1. Refuse To Bend

2. Alamshar

3. Alberto Giacometti.