John O'Sullivan

The mathematics are simple: Connacht must win, draw or lose by less than 22 points to earn a Parker Pen Challenge Cup quarter-final place against London Irish. That is pretty much the only facile thing about Connacht's trip to France.

Pau are a formidable side within the confines of the Stade du Hameau, as Ebbw Vale will attest. In last season's competition the Welsh side took a healthy 25-point lead to Pau and promptly conceded 60 points. The French side are unbeaten there this season.

They have made eight changes from the side beaten 29-7 at the Sportsground last weekend, including recalling two current internationals, centre Damien Traille and the brilliant number eight Imanol Harinordoquy. It brings the number of Test players in their team to six.

Interestingly, Pau have selected two props, Lionel Fauyre and David Laperne, in the second row, and a centre, Romain Cabannes, at openside flanker.

The club have been dogged by injury problems that include former Australian second row Garrick Morgan and their captain and former French scrumhalf - he would have played against the Connacht coach Michael Bradley - Philippe Carbonneau.

David Aucagne captains the side from outhalf and forms an internationally capped inside three alongside Traille and Eric Artiguste. Full back Jean-Marc Souverbie has also been capped by France, and the home side will look to a high-quality backline to exploit any platform provided by the pack.

Bradley has never been afraid to make changes and freshen the team, and this is reflected in the five alterations from the first-leg victory. Mark McHugh, Eric Elwood and Ted Robinson are restored to the backline with Damien Browne and Matt Lacey promoted to the pack.

Bradley's decision to use Mike Ford this season proved particularly opportune when Ireland's defensive coach kept an appointment of long standing to work on Connacht's defensive alignment during the week. Therein lies the key to their hopes.

It's going to be a difficult afternoon and the Irish side could spend most of it close to their line. They'll need to avail of every opportunity presented and hope that their resilience might discourage Pau.

Victory might prove beyond them, but if Connacht emerge to go forward from the two legs it'll be a huge achievement.

PAU: J-M Souverbie; J-B Peyras, E Artiguste, D Traille, P Negre-Gauthier; D Aucagne (capt), N Cabannes; D Berdoy, M Tincu, O Sourgens, L Fauyre, D Laperne, B Bordenave, I Harinordoquy, R Cabannes. Replacements: L Patrac, Y Lacrouts, F Galardi, L Souverbie, A Mockford, J-C Cistacq, R Jaouher.

CONNACHT: M McHugh; M Mostyn, D Yapp, T Allnutt (capt), T Robinson; E Elwood, M Walls; D McFarland, B Jackman, A Clarke, D Browne, A Farley, M Swift, J O'Sullivan, M Lacey. Replacements: J Fogarty, W O'Kelly, M McCarthy, T Carter, C Keane, D Hewitt, C McPhillips.

Referee: Hugh Watkins (Wales)

Previous meeting: Challenger Cup second round first leg - Connacht 29 Pau 7.

Forecast: Pau to win.