New Zealand vs Ireland: Forsyth Bar Stadium, Dunedin; Saturday, kick-off 7.05pm local time/8/05am Irish, live on Sky Sports.
As they say in Leitrim, it turned dirty on the eve of the second Test, rain pouring down all day long as circa 25,000 supporters of New Zealand and Ireland descended upon Dunedin. Rarely has the estimated €120 million investment in the enclosed Forsyth Bar Stadium seemed wiser.
The Irish management and players went into this pivotal match having been provided with “a little bit of clarity as far as the breakdown is concerned” according to Andy Farrell.
Presumably this concerned the degree to which All Blacks were permitted side entries at ruck time, and also to follow through in taking defenders out of the game.
Nonetheless, there will also have been palpable frustration that Joey Carbery’s touchdown was not deemed a try in the First Test, or that at the least there wasn’t a penalty against Reiko Ioane for being offside or for making a seat belt tackle, as well as the lack of a yellow card against Scott Barrett for his high, no arms hit on Peter O’Mahony.
There will also have been apprehension as to how the game will be marshalled by Jaco Peyper and his team of officials, assistants Karl Dickson and Jordan Way, plus TMO Tom Foley.
Most of all, though, Ireland know that the All Blacks will more than likely be sharper with that first hit-out since November under their belts. Hence Ireland have to heed the lessons of a week ago, to retain both their composure and possession against the supreme Beauden Barrett and the masters off turnovers.
The manner they come alive, re-align and attack off turnovers was illustrated by Barrett grubbering in behind in the knowledge that Jamison Gibson-Park was not sweeping for Quinn Tupaea to score. The All Blacks are often at their most dangerous when the opposition have the ball, or are just about to lose it. For example, in three defeats by the All Blacks last year, the Wallabies coughed up five intercept tries,
“We know they’ll improve as well, so we need to realise that,” said Johnny Sexton, recalling a specific example from the First Test when James Lowe slipped and Sevu Reece picked off Garry Ringrose’s pass when it went to ground. “But at this level, even 7-5 down, we are attacking in their 22, we’ve got a bit of an overlap or a half chance and suddenly we end up 14-5 down.
“That’s the small margins but they’re the details that get exposed against the best, and these guys are the best. We’ve talked about ways that we need to improve. Now it’s all about us going out and implementing them.”
New Zealand: Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes); Sevu Reece (Crusaders, Tasman), Reiko Ioane (Blues), Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs), Leicester Fainga’anuku (Crusaders); Beauden Barrett (Blues), Aaron Smith (Highlanders); George Bower (Crusaders), Codie Taylor (Crusaders), Ofa Tu’ungafasi (Blues); Brodie Retallick (Chiefs), Scott Barrett (Crusaders); Dalton Papalii (Blues), Sam Cane (Chiefs, capt), Ardie Savea (Hurricanes).
Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho (Chiefs), Aidan Ross (Chiefs), Angus Ta’avao (Chiefs), Patrick Tupulotu (Blues), Pita Gus Sowakula (Chiefs), Folau Fakatava (Highlanders), Richie Mo’unga (Crusaders), Will Jordan (Crusaders).
Ireland: Hugo Keenan (Leinster/UCD); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster/UCD), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster/Buccaneers), James Lowe (Leinster); Johnny Sexton (Leinster/St Mary’s College, capt), Jamison Gibson Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster/UCD), Dan Sheehan (Leinster/Lansdowne), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster/Clontarf); James Ryan (Leinster/UCD), Tadhg Beirne (Munster/Lansdowne); Peter O’Mahony (Munster/Cork Constitution), Josh van der Flier (Leinster/UCD), Caelan Doris (Leinster/St Mary’s College).
Replacements: Rob Herring (Ulster/Ballynahinch), Finlay Bealham (Connacht/Buccaneers), Cian Healy (Leinster/Clontarf), Kieran Treadwell (Ulster/Ballymena), Jack Conan (Leinster/Old Belvedere), Conor Murray (Munster/Garryowen), Joey Carbery (Munster/Clontarf), Bundee Aki (Connacht/Galwegians).
Referee: Jaco Peyper (SARU)
Head-to-head: Played 34, New Zealand 30 wins, 1 draw, Ireland 3 wins.
Last five meetings: New Zealand 42 Ireland 19 (Auckland, 2022); Ireland 29 New Zealand 20 (Dublin, 2021); New Zealand 46 Ireland 14 (RWC q/f, Tokyo, 2021); Ireland 16 New Zealand 9 (Dublin, 2019); Ireland 9 New Zealand 21 (Dublin, 2018).
Forecast: New Zealand to win.
