The rot was supposed to stop for the All Blacks after they returned from South Africa three weeks ago.
No one flukes a win in a hellhole like Ellis Park, and so when the All Blacks won there, playing brave and resilient rugby and looking a lot like All Blacks teams are supposed to look, something bordering on optimism drifted across New Zealand.
It was classic Hollywood stuff in the end: the world had written the All Blacks off having seen them lose twice in succession to Ireland in July, then come within a whisker of a record defeat to South Africa in Mbombela, where they lost 26-5.
At that point, it wasn’t just that the All Blacks were sitting on just one win from their last six Tests, it was the total lack of conviction with which they were playing that had a nation fearful.
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Two assistant coaches had been chopped in the wake of the series loss to Ireland, but that appeared to have made stuff-all difference, as the All Blacks played 78 minutes in Mbombela without looking remotely likely to score a try.
[ Coach Ian Foster retains faith in All Blacks despite frustration over formOpens in new window ]
They didn’t look like ever being able to catch a high kick either, and just about every up and under the Boks sent up, the All Blacks spilled.
This was the mighty All Blacks and yet the basics looked beyond them. It was dire, a regression from where they had been against Ireland — and that wasn’t exactly much of a benchmark.
That didn’t stop head coach Ian Foster from proclaiming: “We’re bitterly disappointed but I felt it was our most-improved performance this year.
“Some of the areas we really shifted our game forward. In a game dominated by defence we defended well but our timing was out a little bit in terms of the attack so we’re going to have to go and have a look at that.
“There’s a few players over here for the first time feeling the pressure that comes from this type of team.”
It was a comment that incensed a fan base who thought Foster was delusional, something that only got worse a few days later when he doubled down and said that he felt the team were building towards something special.
At about the same time Foster was making big promises about what was brewing in advance of the second Test in Johannesburg, New Zealand Rugby’s board were quietly asking Crusaders coach Scott Robertson to present his plans on how he would set up his coaching team and what selection and strategic changes he would make should the decision be made to make more changes when the team returned from South Africa.
The board had been clear with Foster earlier in the year when he successfully argued to keep John Plumtree and Brad Mooar — the two assistants who had reviewed poorly at the end of 2021 and would be cut after the Irish series — that they would review things thoroughly after the Tests against the Boks.
There didn’t appear much, if any, real hope for Foster in advance of that second Test at Ellis Park. His team in their last three Tests had lacked any kind of attacking cohesion, were wildly ill-disciplined and their basic skill execution had all but collapsed.
What chance did a team that appeared broken have of winning at the spiritual home of the world champions?
Everyone said none. But everyone was wrong and, against the odds, the All Blacks went back to being the All Blacks; they caught the high balls the Springboks rained down upon them and they rediscovered their attacking mojo to win 35-23.
It was a performance that suddenly made Foster appear more savant than delusional, and when he was then able to persuade Joe Schmidt to upgrade his role from selector/analyst to attack coach, it was enough to save his job.
Whatever the board had been planning pre-Ellis Park, they were suddenly sold on retaining Foster, and the key to it all was Schmidt.
Now that Schmidt was willing to be hands-on, travel with the team and swap the computer room for the training ground, the possibilities of where the All Blacks could end up changed.
Schmidt, having spent seven years coaching Ireland, knows the inner workings of the best northern hemisphere sides.
He spent most of his career plotting how to beat England and France — two sides the All Blacks will likely have to beat if they are to win the World Cup next year.
And of course, he knows Ireland. Maybe not like he used to, but his bank of intelligence will still be valuable.
He still knows a few secrets about the likes of Johnny Sexton and Peter O’Mahony — knowledge that could be invaluable given the possibility of the All Blacks meeting Ireland in the quarter-final next year.
The New Zealand public seemed willing enough to buy the logic, and while Schmidt remains something of a mystery given that the bulk of his career has been spent offshore, everyone knows he masterminded two victories against the All Blacks.
And, probably, having spent the last two months with the keep-him-or-fire-him debate raging, most fans just wanted certainty — a decision to be made one way or the other.
It’s not natural for Kiwis to be in this state of flux and to have such complex feelings about the All Blacks and even those who felt a mistake had been made in continuing with Foster were willing to get in behind him and the team and start believing that a resurrection was possible.
The mood certainly changed in the days after it was confirmed Foster would be staying in the role. The last few thousand tickets for the Test against Argentina in Christchurch suddenly sold out.
The media shifted their narrative to be less pessimistic and antagonistic, and columns started to appear suggesting that maybe the team had turned a corner and that, with Schmidt guiding the attack, the All Blacks could start scoring tries again.
[ Joe Schmidt takes up full-time assistant role with the All BlacksOpens in new window ]
With Schmidt also providing a cold and clinical appraisal of what he was seeing each day, the environment could harden as well — something that needed to occur after the senior players revealed after the Irish series that they felt the set-up was lacking tension and friction.
And Foster, previously a little meek in his media appearances, suddenly seemed bolder and more confident in the days after he had certainty about his job.
He even opened up to tell journalists that, on his day off in Christchurch, he’d enjoyed a seafood chowder at the Governors Bay pub and had picked up three records at a local vinyl institution.
The tension had lifted, the future looked bright, and the All Blacks seemed to finally be back on track.
And then, incredibly, they lost to Argentina. The Pumas did nothing special other than tackle their hearts out, but that was enough to break the All Blacks, whose attack game again collapsed.
They lost their shape and all ideas. They dropped balls, threw bad passes and, in the final 20 minutes, their lineout disintegrated.
Their last-quarter collapse stunned everyone, even Foster. “I was a bit surprised by us in the last quarter to be honest,” he said.
“I felt the team was really moving in a strong direction... but we didn’t execute in some big moments at the end and that’s how you get consistency.”
And now there is only confusion and uncertainty about what this All Blacks side will produce next, and a feeling that a nation will turn angry if Argentina are able to back up their effort in Christchurch with a second win in Hamilton this weekend.
One more defeat and the mob will want heads to roll, starting with Foster’s, but no doubt there will be renewed calls for a total cleanout of the All Blacks’ long-serving management team and for New Zealand Rugby’s chief executive Mark Robinson to take responsibility for what would be the worst run of results in New Zealand’s 119-year history.
— Gregor Paul is the rugby correspondent for the New Zealand Herald
