As the last of the international matches of 2022 are consigned to rugby’s history books, trends have begun to emerge that will have significant ramifications for Ireland in 2023.
With the World Cup only months away, Ireland have finished arguably their best ever international year. A year that started with a running revolution, followed by an evolution full of team cohesiveness. This has produced world class attack, resolute defence and powerful set plays, all underpinned by a formidable mental strength.
It has been a highly impressive, sustained performance from Andy Farrell, his coaches and his players. While world rankings are at best only an indication of performance, Ireland richly deserve to be at the pointy end of the global spike.
Internationally, the most unique aspect of 2022 has been that the winning margins between the world’s 10 top ranked teams have been exceptionally tight.
No better example than the Australians, who are ranked at an all-time low of eighth. Yet this season they have defeated Scotland, South Africa, England, and Argentina. If it hadn’t been for their terrible individual discipline, New Zealand, France and Ireland could and should have been added to that list. The Wallabies losing margins to these top-three ranked teams have been by three points or less.
On any given day all the top 10 international teams are capable of defeating each other.
For Ireland, there is another trend that should have supporters concerned. The world’s coaches are working on a game plan designed to counter Ireland’s prolific attacking system. Ironically, the seeds that created the game plan originated with one of Ireland’s greatest ever players, Ronan O’Gara.
This November both South Africa and Australia followed O’Gara’s thinking. The Boks and the Wallabies dominated possession and were physically challenging at every ruck
Last May in the Champions Cup final in Marseille, I was on the sidelines talking to the French defensive coach Shaun Edwards. He had spoken with the La Rochelle staff and was confident that the French team had a game plan that could counter the Leinster attacking machine.
Like all great game plans, O’Gara’s tactics were simple. They were based on keeping possession for long periods of time to deny Leinster the ball, while contesting every breakdown with a ferocious intensity aimed at slowing Leinster’s attacking tempo. When implemented with total commitment by his players, the plan proved to be masterful.
Understanding that Ireland’s attack is almost an exact replica of Leinster’s, international coaches began taking note. This November both South Africa and Australia followed O’Gara’s thinking. The Boks and the Wallabies dominated possession and were physically challenging at every ruck.
Last Saturday night at the 55th minute mark, the Wallabies had dominated possession so overwhelmingly that they had forced Ireland to make a staggering 139 tackles compared to Australia’s 51. Ireland had only carried the ball 166 metres, compared to Australia’s 451.
William Shakespeare wrote that “What is past is prologue”. The tactics used by La Rochelle, the Springboks and the Wallabies have been noted by other international coaches and will surely be improved upon and then pushed at the men in green by the truckload in the World Cup year.
It is not just the game plan that the world is observing. Ireland’s maul structure has been noted as being highly illegal. Across November the Irish hooker, Dan Sheehan, was ripping the ball from the jumper’s hands and then sliding to the back of the maul with all the Irish forwards, illegally, joining the maul in front of the ball.
Sheehan then slid to the side, sheering off the maul to use his exceptional leg drive close to the line. All of this was missed by the officials.
During the Six Nations, opposition coaches will bring Sheehan’s illegal position in the maul to the attention of match officials. There are several other highly ingenious but illegal ploys that Ireland brilliantly slipped into their lineouts, mauls and scrums, all missed by the officials. These plays left the Springboks and the Wallabies fuming.
The last thing Ireland need in 2023 is to have their set play whistled off the park after Eddie Jones or Fabien Galthie bring these issues to the attention of the referees, which they will surely do.
Ireland also need to reconstruct their attacking strategy against opposition that have players in the bin. Last Saturday the Wallabies lost a staggering six players to injury at the Aviva. This caused them to use three separate outside centres, while also being reduced to 13 men at one point. Despite all of these advantages, Ireland could not summon an attacking strategy to exploit any of these situations.
Over the last two weeks when the opposition have been reduced by yellow and red cards, Ireland have had three scrums with an advantage of six attackers against four defenders and either failed to create an overlap, run into touch or lost possession.
This tactical disaster means Ireland have a huge amount of work to undergo in the match-winning area of how to attack the opposition when they are a player or more down.
While Jack Crowley had a competent performance coming into a highly pressurised situation and is a player of the future, for Ireland to have failed to dominate a patched-up and battered Australian backline, with several players out of position, was exceptionally poor.
Ireland’s great nemesis, the French, are on a record breaking 13-game winning streak. In round two of the Six Nations, the French will enter the Aviva. Only one team will emerge as the number one on the planet. We can be sure that O’Gara’s original game plan, aimed at stymying the Irish running game, will have been refined by Galthié and his rapidly-improving French team.
If Ireland are to emerge as the winner against France, who many consider the true number one team in the world, then they must empower their tactics to grow, evolve and improve.
As 2023 beckons, the immortal words of the legendary rugby league coach Jack Gibson ring true for Ireland.
At his first team meeting of a Premiership winning season, Jack told his team: “I am not offering security. I am offering opportunity”.
Full of hope and uncertainty, Ireland should take up Big Jack’s advice and attack 2023 with all of its wondrous possibilities.
