Champions Cup: Northampton v Munster
Cinch Stadium at Franklin’s Gardens, Sunday, 1.0 – Live on BT Sport
This is not the biggest sporting event of the day, but it is Munster’s most important game of the season so far. While a second defeat in two Heineken Champions Cup games wouldn’t extinguish their hopes of reaching the knock-out stages for the 21st time in the last 25 years, it would seriously imperil them.
At the very least, another loss would all but douse Munster’s chances of securing a home tie in the Last 16, much less any possible quarter-final, and potentially leave them needing to win both their return games against Northampton and in Toulouse in order to maintain their interest in the Champions Cup beyond January.
Viewed in that context then, this is pretty much a must-win game for Munster, although the same applies to Northampton of course following their 46-12 beating by La Rochelle last week, thereby making this all but a knock-out match.
This heightened sense of jeopardy is reflected in the team selections. Munster have been strengthened by the return from injury of Conor Murray and a first start since September for Keith Earls. Jack O’Donoghue also comes into the side with captain Peter O’Mahony moving to openside. But perhaps the most interesting of the four changes in personnel to the starting XV has been the inclusion of Jack Crowley for just his eighth start overall and his first at inside centre.
Watching Joey Carbery and Crowley working in tandem again last week for the final half-hour against Toulouse, one sensed that it wouldn’t be the last we’d see of this as a 10-12 dynamic, and Graham Rowntree and Mike Prendergast have boldly gone with this option for the start of such a season-defining game. Niall Scannell makes his 150th appearance for the province, while Dave Kilcoyne is in line for his first outing since October off the bench.
Similarly though, Northampton have been boosted by the return of a quartet of experienced frontline players in the 96-times capped English lock Courtney Lawes, Scottish international centre Rory Hutchinson, first-choice scrumhalf Alex Mitchell and powerful South African backrower Juarno Augustus.
Akin to Earls, the 32-year-old Lawes starts his first game since September after making his return off the bench last week. Tighthead prop Ehren Painter and Fijian hooker Sam Matavesi are also named as director of rugby Phil Dowson promotes six of last week’s replacements which did garner some degree of consolation with two late tries.
While there was much to admire in Munster’s positive intent against Toulouse, in the heel of the hunt they were the only side over the opening round of matches who did not make a single line break.
They will again be heavily reliant on the ball-carrying of Gavin Coombes, while Crowley’s selection alongside the in-form Carbery will improve their running threat given his footwork and acceleration.
Save for Toulouse scoring two tries off close-range lineout mauls, by and large Munster kept Antoine Dupont – one sidestepping line break apart – and Toulouse in check.
As much as anything though, Munster’s hopes will hinge on their ability to prevent Northampton generating momentum through their big ball carriers. As Munster defence coach Denis Leamy put it during the week: “It’s a battle of the gain line really in terms of who is going to win it, pure and simple.”
There’s plenty of statistical evidence to demonstrate some of the Saints’ threats. They have the highest rate of gainline success (63 per cent) of any team in the Premiership this season and the return of the influential Lawes and Augustus alongside captain Lewis Ludlam will add to the Saints’ physicality and ball-carrying backrow oomph, as well as improve their lineout, with Dowson also opting for a 6-2 split on the pitch.
Mitchell’s influence at “9″ has seemed to have grown further since the departure of Dan Biggar. He has made the most kicks in play (106) and kicking metres (3,969) of any player in the Premiership. He is also a potent runner, as evidenced by 14 tries in 40 games since the start of last season.
While Northampton have lost all their games on the road this season, they have also won four of their five home games on the pristine Franklin’s Gardens pitch.
Munster are going to have to keep on the right side of a French referee, who has replaced a compatriot, to limit Northampton access to their 22, and take their chances in what could well be a high wire, one score game.
NORTHAMPTON: George Furbank; James Ramm, Matt Proctor, Rory Hutchinson, Tommy Freeman; Fin Smith, Alex Mitchell; Alex Waller, Sam Matavesi, Ehren Painter; Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, David Ribbans; Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam (capt), Juarno Augustus.
Replacements: Mikey Haywood, Emmanuel Iyogun, Alfie Petch, Alex Moon, Angus Scott-Young, Aaron Hinkley, Callum Braley, Fraser Dingwall.
MUNSTER: Mike Haley; Calvin Nash, Antoine Frisch, Jack Crowley, Keith Earls; Joey Carbery, Conor Murray; Jeremy Loughman, Niall Scannell, John Ryan; Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne; Jack O’Donoghue, Peter O’Mahony (capt), Gavin Coombes.
Replacements: Diarmuid Barron, Dave Kilcoyne, Roman Salanoa, John Hodnett, Alex Kendellen, Craig Casey, Rory Scannell, Shane Daly.
Referee: Pierre-Baptiste Nuchy (France).
Previous meetings – 1999-2000, final: Northampton 9 Munster 8 (Twickenham). 2009-10: Northampton 31 Munster 27; Munster 12 Northampton 9, (q/f) Munster 33 Northampton 19. 2011-12: Munster 23 Northampton 21; Northampton 36 Munster 51.
Betting: 6-4 Northampton, 17-1 Draw, 8-13 Munster. Handicap odds: (Northampton +3pts) 10-11 Northampton, 18-1 Draw, 10-11 Munster.
Forecast: Munster to win.
