Decades before our phones could guide us around an unexplored city, navigating your way around Paris was a highly complex task.
Being lost was an hourly occurrence.
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That was until I encountered one of the most rare of humankind – a friendly and helpful Parisian. This gentleman took pity on a fumbling young Antipodean and showed me that the Paris Métro had a simple solution to this tangled problem.
The key was having a clear vision of where you wanted to go. All you needed was the name of your final Métro stop. Then when you pressed the button with the name of the station that was your goal, as if by some higher power, the pathway from where you stood to your destination was illuminated by a string of tiny lights on a panel of the machine.
The City of Light switched on before my eyes.
Both Ireland and France have a clear vision of where they want to go in Paris: the Stade de France, playing in the Rugby World Cup final in late October.
After Saturday’s match the pathway for each team to that possible final destination will be far more clearly illuminated.
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Like the technology on the old Parisian Métro, the route to the World Cup final is old school. Don’t look too far ahead and don’t look too far back. Just win the next game.
Along that journey to winning a World Cup, some games are simply more important than others. Saturday’s match at the Aviva is an inflection point for both teams.
In the short-term, the winner is highly likely to go on and claim the Six Nations Championship and possibly a Grand Slam.
A very desirable and positive outcome.
Counter-intuitively, in the long run, before entering RWC 2023, the psychological reset that a single defeat would create for both teams is also useful.
That is because the deeper a team goes into a winning streak, the closer they are to the inevitable defeat that will end it. While the attitude that “pressure is a privilege” is the correct mindset, every coach works exceptionally hard to minimise the pressure on their team because every player feels the pressure to keep winning.
This French team have won a record 14 consecutive victories, while Ireland are hoping that 13 is their lucky number because if they can topple France that will be the amount of consecutive home wins they’ll have achieved at the Aviva.
Three World Cup winners from three different countries have told me that a crucial event along their journey to lifting the Webb Ellis Trophy was the learning they took from a bitter defeat.
So while the battle rages at the Aviva, keep in mind that a defeat for either team is not the end of their journey. Nor does victory guarantee anything at RWC 2023. After full-time, both teams will press a button and another path to their destination will illuminate before their eyes.
If last week’s form is our only guide, then Ireland are in front. Simply because for the first time in three seasons France were very poor.
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The accuracy and discipline that has been a hallmark of this quality French team under Fabien Galthié’s coaching was missing in Rome.
However, after three years of consecutive excellence, France have earned the right to have a bad day. While form is temporary, class is permanent and this is a classy French outfit that will provide Andy Farrell’s team with their greatest challenge so far.
Last week, in another devastating opening stanza, Ireland were a class above the Welsh for the first 30 minutes. The scarlet defensive line simply could not cope with Ireland’s high-tempo attack.
Frustratingly, at the beginning of the second half, Ireland gave away a string of consecutive penalties that provided Wales with opportunities they were not capable of exploiting. France will not be so forgiving of Ireland’s ill-discipline.
However, the unique complexity of the Six Nations reminds us that things are never as simple as last week’s form.
Galthié has been masterful in assembling a raft of knowledgeable assistant coaches to maximise the ocean of player talent that has been cultivated in France across the past four years.
None more important than the former Lions and Welsh defensive coach Shaun Edwards. He has demanded exceptionally high standards of work rate from his French players and they have delivered.
The quality of this week’s French defensive effort under Edwards’ experienced leadership will determine if France can create winning momentum by physically dominating Ireland on their home patch.
France will launch a titanic assault against the Irish set plays, combined with an aggression in the tackle and the breakdown that will have to be superior to the stupendous effort the French displayed against South Africans in Paris last year.
Ireland have dominated the Wallabies, New Zealand, the Springboks and every other team that has visited Dublin in the Farrell era, but France are the best team to walk on to the Aviva in many seasons. If Ireland are to then tick off their to-do list, it will need an exceptional performance.
With a concerning litany of hamstring injuries, this is not Ireland’s strongest 23, and Farrell will be happy with that. He is actively trying to place his team into adversity to mentally prepare them for the rigours required for a successful World Cup campaign.
To predict against the talent of this French team is a great folly, yet the Aviva has become more than a fortress – it is a bastion of high-tempo, fast-paced running rugby.
While the head says France, Saturday is a day to follow your heart. Ireland may get a win by the slimmest of margins and in the long run do French rugby a great service.
