Italy v Ireland, Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Saturday, 3.15 (2.15 Irish time) – Live on RTÉ 2 and ITV
Andy Farrell, Paul O’Connell and John Fogarty skipped off from the Stadio Olimpico on a warm, sunny Friday afternoon in training shorts and set off on a brisk half-hour walk back along the River Tiber to the team’s hotel in central Rome. Needless to say, Farrell and O’Connell were setting the pace.
If they were inconvenienced about Ireland’s latest prematch injury blow, namely the loss of Garry Ringrose to what seems suspiciously like another soft tissue injury in training, it didn’t show. But Farrell happily embraces disruptions to his best laid plans so as to discover how his team adapts.
Inside the stadium, after the Captain’s Run, Mike Catt said that Ringrose had been managing a calf injury this week which had tightened up overnight, perhaps due to the travelling.
With Ringrose thus missing out on his 50th cap, Stuart McCloskey has been reinstated at inside centre, with Bundee Aki shifting to outside centre, and Jimmy O’Brien promoted to the bench.
“We’ve obviously got a load of injuries, some of the top guys in world rugby are out at the moment and I think the guys have fitted in seamlessly,” said Catt, toeing the party line, and pointing to the leadership of James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Ross Byrne – “a calming voice” – and Hugo Keenan.
Well, the proof will be in the pizza. As well as Ringrose, Ireland are missing five players who were ever-present starters for the series win in New Zealand – Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne, Jamison Gibson-Park, Johnny Sexton and Robbie Henshaw. They’ve also opted to leave Dan Sheehan on the bench. That makes this one interesting.
As with the Byrne-Craig Casey halfback partnership, McCloskey and Aki have never started a game together. Indeed, Aki in recent times has been more of an inside centre, an altogether more difficult and challenging role defensively, especially when someone like Ange Capuozzo is hitting the line with perfect timing.
The trio of Irish coaches on their Roman walk would have met plenty of wellwishers, given the air was thick with Irish accents as the clouds returned in the afternoon. But the forecast, happily, has changed again to forecast a sunny Saturday afternoon, with the rain not arriving until later in the day, and then landing heavily on Sunday. Oh well, at least that’s good for the rugby.
But therein lies the flip side of the Championship’s winter slot. Whether or not this tempers the ambition of two sides whose inclination is to attack with the ball in hand remains to be seen. Paolo Garbisi has a strong and left-footed kicking game but heretofore Italy’s modus operandi has been to bring the electric Capuozzo into the game.
As well as believing this is the best way Italy are going to make strides, Kieran Crowley also believes the game has a duty to entertain.
Given Crowley’s pronouncements so far, it’s hard to see them deviating from this approach too much and everything about their first two performances suggests they will keep seeking tries rather than become dispirited.
One of the standout features of this Irish team is the bravery with which they try to play. Sexton, after all, is the epitome of the ‘kick it to the corner’ outhalf.
Yet they are a smart side too. As they showed in the second half against France especially, they can also resort to a kicking game when leading from the front at home against a team whose inclination is not to run from their own half.
This may be effective against this Azzurri side, who are given licence to play more heads-up rugby. What’s more, Italy struggled to execute their exits against France, and to some degree at Twickenham too. And then, of course, there’s the reconfigured Irish team and the rain.
With Owen Farrell back at outhalf, England adopted a clearly preordained plan to constantly kick in behind, and for all Capuozzo’s speed they regularly found grass as well.
With their scrum and maul tightening the screw, it wasn’t the first cousin of entertainment, but it was effective. Might Farrell’s father have something even remotely similar in mind?
“It’s a Test match, you play the game that’s in front of you,” said the Irish head coach when asked might Ireland take a leaf out of the English manual in dissecting this Italian side. “We’ll not just respect the Italians, we’ll respect the occasion and the points that are on offer.”
Ireland are comparatively much more advanced and nuanced in what they’ve been doing for the last three years to be such slavish devotees to a pre-laid tactical plan.
But as Farrell said, this is a Test match, and a Six Nations match at that, with Ireland seeking a third win in three to bring both a title and an even rarer Grand Slam into focus. For those involved, the stakes are high, not least for the six players promoted to the starting line-up.
If Casey and Byrne sense there’s no point in overplaying their hand, all the more so if they sense space or vulnerability by putting boot to ball, they’ll assuredly do just that.
This Italian pack is entirely comprised of Benetton players bar the London Irish prop Danilo Fischetti. The Italian scrum did appear to suffer as much from refereeing interpretations in Twickenham as it did from the English pack, and their lineout maul did force the indignity of a penalty try against the French forwards.
Yet their defensive maul hasn’t been nearly cohesive enough to withstand the French or English lineout drives, and this is normally a point of difference for the Irish pack under O’Connell’s watch.
Ireland have won the last dozen meetings since losing here a decade ago, the last three by an average of 51-11, yet this Azzurri side do not look as ripe for the plucking, and the 22-point handicap looks a little steep in Ireland’s favour.
But the English template, coupled with the late changes in personnel, may result in Ireland finding a more pragmatic way to construct their third win from three.
ITALY: Ange Capuozzo (Toulouse); Edoardo Padovani (Benetton), Juan Ignacio Brex (Benetton), Tommaso Menoncello (Benetton), Pierre Bruno (Zebre Parma); Paolo Garbisi (Montpellier), Stephen Varney (Gloucester); Danilo Fischetti (London Irish), Giacomo Nicotera (Benetton), Simone Ferrari (Benetton); Niccolò Cannone (Benetton), Federico Ruzza (Benetton); Sebastian Negri (Benetton), Michele Lamaro (Benetton, capt), Lorenzo Cannone (Benetton).
Replacements: Luca Bigi (Zebre Parma), Federico Zani (Benetton), Marco Riccioni (Saracens), Edoardo Iachizzi (Vannes, Fra), Giovanni Pettinelli (Benetton), Alessandro Fusco (Zebre Parma), Luca Morisi (London Irish), Tommaso Allan (Harlequins).
IRELAND: Hugo Keenan (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Ross Byrne (Leinster), Craig Casey (Munster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht); Iain Henderson (Ulster), James Ryan (Leinster, capt); Caelan Doris (Leinster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster).
Replacements: Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Dave Kilcoyne (Munster), Tom O’Toole (Ulster), Ryan Baird (Leinster), Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Conor Murray (Munster), Jack Crowley (Munster), Jimmy O’Brien (Leinster).
Referee: Mike Adamson (Scotland).
Assistant referees: Wayne Barns (England), Craig Evans (Wales).
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa).
Overall head-to-head: Played 34. Italy 4 wins. Ireland 30 wins.
Last five meetings – 2019, 6N: Italy 16 Ireland 24. 2019, RWC warm-up: Ireland 29 Italy 10. 2020, 6N: Ireland 50 Italy 17. 2021, 6N: Italy 10 Ireland 48. 2022, 6N: Ireland 57 Italy 6.
Five-game formguide: Ireland – W 19-16 v South Africa (h); W 35-17 v Fiji (h); W 13-10 v Australia (h); W 34-10 v Wales (a); W 32-19 v France (h). Italy – W 49-17 v Samoa (h); W 28-27 v Australia (h); L 21-63 v South Africa (h); L 24-29 v France (h); L 14-31 v England (a).
Betting (Paddy Power): 14-1 Italy, 50-1 Draw, 1-25 Ireland. Handicap odds (Italy +22 pts) 10-11 Italy, 20-1 Draw, 10-11 Ireland.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
