Heineken Champions Cup quarter-final preview: Leinster V Leicester Tigers, Friday, Aviva Stadium, 8pm (Live on RTÉ2 / BT Sport)
The Round of 16 ensured a step up in jeopardy and entertainment, and now, a week on, the stakes have been ratcheted up some more for the quarterfinals. Allowing for the new South African flavour, the line-up is liberally sprinkled with European royalty and no tie epitomises this more than this heavyweight opener.
Credit to the Leinster supporters, who had bought up 23,500 of the 27,000 tickets available as of yesterday, for no other side in Europe would manage that on an Easter weekend at such short notice, and to the 500 Leicester supporters, many of whom are travelling by boat from Holyhead in the middle of the night.
The pair have history all right, four-time winners v two-time winners, and a reprise of Leinster’s breakthrough 2009 final in Murrayfield. But after Leinster beat the Tigers here at the Aviva in the quarterfinals two years later, the pair crossed swords for the first time in a decade at the same stage last year in a 12th meeting.
It’s remarkable how settled the Leinster team remains 11 months on, especially compared to Leicester, who have since become Premiership champions.
In recalling the fit-again duo of Garry Ringrose and Caelan Doris, Leinster pitch up with a dozen of the same personnel in their starting line-up, the exceptions being Ross Byrne, Dan Sheehan and Ryan Baird in place of the injured Johnny Sexton, Ronan Kelleher and Josh van der Flier.
Doris thus returns with a less familiar 7 on his back, although Leo Cullen maintained: “It looks potentially a bit drastic but that is something that is covered. We have confidence in the decision.”
Ringrose’s return means Jimmy O’Brien shifts to right-wing, where he played in Welford Road last May, with Jordan Larmour missing out., By picking the bigger, aerially stronger man, it seems as if Leinster had a strong idea of the changes Richard Wigglesworth was going to make from last week’s 16-6 win over Edinburgh.
Among the four changes in personnel and six positional switches is the return of the experienced Mike Brown, whose career has been resuscitated by the Tigers, with Freddie Steward shifting to the wing and Harry Potter move to outside centre.
The former Irish Under-20 international Dan Kelly is recalled as ex-Leinster outhalf Jimmy Gopperth moves to the bench.
Joe Heyes and last week’s match-winner Jasper Wiese are restored to the starting pack, which again features James Cronin. Only six of Leicester’s starting XV and eight of the match-day squad form last May reappear here.
Steward’s move from full-back, where he played for England in Ireland’s Grand Slam coronation three weeks ago and was sent off, prompted one immediate reaction from Cullen.
“Aerial is the first thing that springs out when I see it. You’ve got a guy who is 6ft 5in on the wing so I think they’ll go to the air on that side of the field. Mike Brown [has] a tonne of experience, [and is] a very competitive bloke in general”
Also noting the selections of Kelly, Wiese, Julian Montoya and Tommy Reffell, Cullen forewarned: “The breakdown, the way they go hard after the ball, it’s all or nothing really, isn’t it? They will go harder in that area with some of the jackalers that they have.
“They will go hard at the ball. That’s a big part of their game, of their DNA, trying to slow down some of the things we would like to do. That would be my thinking.”
There are bound to be some similarities between Leicester and England given Steve Borthwick went from the former to the latter before the Six Nations. Borthwick is a coach who bases a lot of his work on statistics and who believes that the team that kicks more usually wins.
While only Steward, Anthony Watson, Jack van Poortvliet and Dan Cole were part of the England team three weeks ago, tellingly Leicester have averaged 31 kicks per game in the Champions Cup to Leinster’s 23.6 and in the Round of 16 van Poortvliet had the most kicks out of hand (21) of any player, six of which were reclaimed in making 540 metres.
Cullen believes there were several aspects of England’s display that Leicester will try to mirror, namely: “very aggressive line-speed, trying to create that energy in the stadium. If you watch that game back, there’s a few clues there in terms of a template that Leicester will come with.
“England frustrated Ireland for large parts of that first-half especially. Obviously, there’s a red card before half-time which is a big moment in the game, because Ireland were quite frustrated up to that point.
“I think we need to definitely take some lessons from that game, because there’s definitely similarities between a Steve Borthwick coached England versus the Leicester Tigers team we see now because his fingerprint is on the team. It’s a good challenge for us.”
For sure, Leinster have only had a six-day turnaround compared to Leicester’s full week, but then again, they’ve not had a travel day.
Furthermore, in last week’s game against Ulster, which was also something of a wet run, rather than ot a dry run, for tonight given their tactics, there was only 32 minutes’ game time, which maybe suggests it wasn’t as exacting as perceived. With their superior attack in mind, Leinster would ideally want something up around the 40-minute mark, and so both home team and supporters alike will welcome the dry forecast.
Leinster: Hugo Keenan; Jimmy O’Brien, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe; Ross Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Ross Molony, James Ryan (capt), Ryan Baird, Caelan Doris, Jack Conan. Replacements: John McKee, Cian Healy, Michael Ala’alatoa, Jason Jenkins, Scott Penny, Luke McGrath, Harry Byrne, Ciaran Frawley.
Leicester: Mike Brown, Anthony Watson, Harry Potter, Dan Kelly, Freddie Steward, Handré Pollard, Jack van Poortvliet; James Cronin, Julian Montoya (capt), Joe Heyes, George Martin, Cameron Henderson, Hanro Liebenberg, Tommy Reffell, Jasper Wiese. Replacements: Charlie Clare, Tom West, Dan Cole, Eli Snyman, Olly Cracknell, Sam Wolstenholme, Charlie Atkinson, Jimmy Gopperth.
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Results so far: Leinster _ W 42-10 v Racing (h); W 57-0 v Gloucester (h); W 49-14 v Gloucester (a); W 36-10 v Racing (h). L16 W 30-15 v Ulster (h). Leicester _ W 23-17 v Ospreys) a); W 23-16 v Clermont (h); W 44-29 v Clermont (a); L 26-27 v Ospreys (h). L16 W 16-6 v Edinburgh (h).
Head-to-head: Played 12. Leinster 7 wins, Leicester 5 wins.
Betting (Paddy Power): 1/16 Leinster, 40/1 Draw, 9/1 Leicester. Handicap odds (Leicester + 17pts) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Leicester.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
