Champions Cup semi-final: Leinster v Toulouse, Saturday, 3pm, Aviva Stadium (Live on RTÉ 2 & BT Sport 3)
No less than the Ireland-France Six Nations collision, how to overhype this one, not least with much of the same cast renewing the rivalry from that titanic 80 minutes of plot lines and twists?
Four-time winners hosting five-time winners, this is European rugby royalty with a host of elite international players from the two highest ranked nations in the world. That’s all.
To place it further into a historical context, but also the present one, this is the leaders and record eight-time winners of what is now the URC against the leaders and record 21-time winners of the French Championship. That too then.
Unnervingly for Leinster and their supporters, Robbie Henshaw sustained a quad strain in training last Monday and will be joining Johnny Sexton, James Lowe and Rónan Kelleher among others in the stands.
[ The Johnny Sexton safety net at Leinster is gone. It’s up to Ross Byrne nowOpens in new window ]
Against that Josh van der Flier returns with Caelan Doris shifting to ‘6′ in the first-choice backrow. Jordan Larmour comes in at right wing, with Jimmy O’Brien shifting to the other flank to replicate Lowe’s missing left boot.
Charlie Ngatai returns for his first game since January 7th after a hamstring injury. While he lacks Henshaw’s acceleration and running game, he did play alongside the in-form Garry Ringrose in the opening two Champions Cup wins last December. Ngatai also has the experience of playing 88 games over four seasons in Lyon, including 73 in the Top 14.
Ugo Mola has named the same Toulouse starting XV which beat the Sharks 54-20 in the quarter-finals three weeks ago, and all of whom were rested for last weekend’s 19-10 defeat away to Stade Francais.
Club captain Julien Marchand returns from injury to be named on the bench as a putative replacement for fellow French international hooker Peato Mauvaka.
Joshua Brennan has been ruled out due to the concussion he suffered last week, with the South African Rynhardt Elstadt recalled to the replacements. Back-up scrumhalf Paul Graou has also been recalled to the bench, where Mola has again gone with a 6-2 split.
For all their undoubted flair, offloading and array of gamebreakers, it’s clear that Toulouse will seek to take a leaf out of Ronan O’Gara’s La Rochelle from last year’s final. And, indeed, from three weeks ago when softening up the Sharks before pulling clear in the final quarter, albeit the travel-weary visitors looked more interested in a game of tip rugby by that stage.
There were, Mola admitted, relevant lessons from that Ireland-France epic in February, and it would be a surprise if Toulouse engage in a reprise, not least with the 44 minute-plus ball in play time, all the more so with the forecast giving a 75 per cent chance of rain come kick-off.
“A big physical pack of forwards that they have, so I think they’ll be very direct when they have the ball,” forecast Cullen. “I think they’ll be pretty direct and confrontational. They kick the ball a fair amount. I know Toulouse’s reputation is sort of free-flowing, offloading rugby, but I think they’ll be pretty pragmatic, particularly at the start of the game.
“As the game starts to open up then they start to move the ball around, and you see a lot of their points come late in games. So I think they’ll try to take us on physically, which is good because that’s what we want as well; a good physical challenge for our guys and that’s what you want to do, you want to test yourselves against the best teams out there.
“It’s a brilliant challenge, isn’t it? Plenty of quality, you can’t switch off for a second with some of the players that they have, game-changing players and all the things we’ve talked about over the last week, and even before that as well.”
The pity is that it’s not the final, or a sell-out.
“It’s a European Cup semi-final, it’s exciting,” said James Ryan. “Being able to play in the Aviva in Dublin is very special for us. We can’t wait, it’s going to be 40,000-plus.
“I’m not sure it’ll be quite a sell-out. It probably would be if the EPCR lowered some of the ticket prices a bit,” he added, in another polite little dig at the tournament organisers’ ticketing strategy.
Ryan wasn’t even born when Toulouse won the inaugural European Cup in 1996, but they’ve always been the benchmark. That epic 41-35 quarter-final win in Toulouse in 2006 may have been overshadowed by their semi-final loss to Munster, but containing their version of the try from the end of the earth.
Yet, no sooner had Leinster caught up with le rouge et noire by earning a fourth star in 2018 than Toulouse had a fifth etched into their jerseys in 2021. It is, as Cullen admitted earlier this week, as if Leinster have always been playing catch-up.
But they have won the last three meetings, and today can take a giant step toward emulating their most respected Euro foes.
Matthis Lebel said during the week that somehow they always knew they’d have to encounter Leinster, and no doubt the feeling is entirely mutual.
Toulouse are, as Antoine Dupont observed after their captain’s run at the Aviva Stadium, undoubtedly fresher and hungrier than last year, as well as wounded from that game. But perhaps Leinster still remain slightly the fitter and retain an edge in the backrow.
Toulouse have arguably the best 9-10-15 attacking triumvirate in the global game and are the superior attacking threat in transition. And from their own half, off counterattacks and quick throws or taps. Leinster have also been vulnerable to opposition catch-and-drives.
Against that, Leinster have a potent maul of their own, their scrum has become an increasing weapon and all the metrics suggest that if they again generate anything like the amount of quick ball, they have the more sustained attacking game, and defence.
With Wayne Barnes in charge again, as he was for the Ireland-France game, this could one for the ages, never mind the season, and it would be no surprise if it’s a one-score game.
LEINSTER: Hugo Keenan; Jordan Larmour, Garry Ringrose, Charlie Ngatai, Jimmy O’Brien; Ross Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Ross Molony, James Ryan (capt); Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan.
Replacements: John McKee, Cian Healy, Michael Ala’alatoa, Jason Jenkins, Ryan Baird, Luke McGrath, Harry Byrne, Ciarán Frawley.
TOULOUSE: Thomas Ramos; Juan Cruz Mallía, Pierre-Louis Barassi, Pita Ahki, Matthis Lebel; Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont (capt); Cyril Baille, Peato Mauvaka, Dorian Aldegheri; Richie Arnold, Emmanuel Meafou, Jack Willis, Thibaud Flament, Francois Cros.
Replacements: Julien Marchand, Rodrigue Neti, David Ainu’u, Alexandre Roumat, Rynhardt Elstadt, Alban Placines, Paul Graou, Arthur Retiere.
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England).
Head-to-head: Played 13, Leinster 7 wins, Toulouse 6 wins.
Routes to semi-finals – Leinster: 42-10 v Racing (h); 57-0 v Gloucester (h); 49-14 v Gloucester (a); 36-10 v Racing (h); R16 30-15 v Ulster (h); q/f 55-24 v Leicester (h). Toulouse: 18-13 v Munster (a); 45-19 v Sale (h); 27-5 v Sale (a); 20-16 v Munster (h); R16 33-9 v Bulls (h); q/f 54-20 v Sharks (h).
Leading try scorers – Leinster: Van der Flier 5, Ringrose 4. Toulouse: Mallia 3.
Leading points scorers – Leinster: Ross Byrne 65. Toulouse: Thomas Ramos 63.
Betting (Paddy Power): 3-10 Leinster, 18-1 Draw, 11-4 Toulouse. Handicap odds (Toulouse + 7pts) 10-11 Leinster, 19-1 Draw, 10-11 Toulouse.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
