Okay, so the first bit of the job is done. Ireland have made it through the group. Pulverising Scotland last night turned all the week’s permutations to ashes and gave everything a smooth simplicity. Andy Farrell’s team are (potentially) three games away from winning the Rugby World Cup. They are also (equally potentially) one game away from coming home.
You know what this means, right? It means that for the next week at least and hopefully beyond, people are going to be talking rugby at you. They will not be doing this because they are bad people. They will not be doing it in order to make you feel small. They will be doing it because they are excited, as well they should be. This could be an exciting few weeks. It could also be a monumental let-down. All doors remain open.
In preparation – and so that nobody is left feeling like they have their nose pressed up against the glass – behold our Bluffer’s Guide To The Rest Of The Rugby World Cup. Yes, that’s us, The Irish Times, rugbysplaining to anyone who will listen since William Webb Ellis got his hands dirty. Let’s take it talking point by talking point.
1 The Draw
You will, by now, most likely be acutely aware that Ireland play New Zealand next Saturday night in the quarter-final. You may also be vaguely aware that New Zealand are pretty good for a quarter-final opponent – unusually good, in fact, given that Ireland have won all their games so far. This is because of the most lop-sided draw in the history of big-time sport.
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For reasons that even World Rugby are now a little sheepish about, the draw took place in December 2020 and was based on the World Rankings in January 2020. Back then, Ireland were the fifth-ranked team in the world. Now they’re number one. Hence, they’ve had to play (and beat) South Africa already and now need to get past the All Blacks just to make a semi-final. Meanwhile, also next weekend, South Africa play France (ranked seventh for the draw, now the World Cup favourites). It’s all a bit farcical.
Do say: “Alan Gilpin has already said they’ll change it next time and hold the draw closer to the actual World Cup.”
Don’t say: “Who needs the best four teams in the tournament anyway?”
2 The Injuries
Though the scoreline suggests Ireland didn’t have a lot to worry about last night against Scotland, it took the heaviest toll of any of their games so far. Mack Hansen passed his concussion test but was withdrawn with a calf injury. James Lowe got a finger in the eye and had to come off. James Ryan could be seen after the game grimacing as he held his right wrist limply by his side. Tadhg Furlong has more strapping than a tube carriage when he takes the pitch these days. Robbie Henshaw miss the game with a hamstring problem and has only a very tight window to get back before the end of the tournament.
For so much of this World Cup, the Ireland injury news has told the opposite tale. The tournament has seen the likes of Ronan Kelleher, Dan Sheehan and Jack Conan all work their way back from injuries that interrupted their build-up. Even Cian Healy, the main pre-tournament hard-luck story, is fit and ready for his call-up should the need arise. The next few days will tell a lot.
Do say: “Andy Farrell has planned for every contingency and all the back-ups know their jobs inside-out.”
Don’t say: “Can Cian Healy play on the wing?”
3 The History
Ireland have been here before. We’ve been to quarter-finals in 1987, 1991, 1995, 2003, 2011, 2015 and 2019. Getting to a quarter-final has only occasionally been a problem. Getting past it and playing in a semi-final has always been beyond us. Some of it has been bad luck (’91), some of it has been down to injuries (’15), some of it has been that we just weren’t up to the job (the rest of them). One way or the other, it’s always been the most glaring hole in Irish rugby’s CV.
This time could be different for lots of reasons. This is the best Ireland team ever to play in a World Cup. They’ve beaten all the other contenders inside the past 15 months, including the All Blacks, twice, on their home patch. New Zealand have lost already in the tournament, to France on opening night. If it’s ever going to happen, it should surely happen now.
Do say: “Every game is its own entity – why should Ireland care about what happened in those other quarter-finals?”
Don’t say: “I might skip this one and wait for the semi-final.”
4 The All Blacks
It is, of course, entirely unprecedented that Ireland would be going into any World Cup match against New Zealand as favourites, however marginal. The teams have met twice in World Cups, both at the quarter-final stage, and neither time was pretty. The All Blacks won 43-19 in Johannesburg in 1995 and 46-14 in Tokyo in 2019. This has not historically been a fixture New Zealand have had to worry about.
The big issue this week is that we won’t know how good this iteration of the All Blacks are until the game starts. After losing to France on opening night, their tournament since has been a series of turkey shoots against Namibia, Italy and Uruguay. They look to have found their stride but it could all be smoke and mirrors. It’s going to be a nervy week.
Do say: “Joe Schmidt is on their coaching staff – if anyone knows the Irish weaknesses, Joe knows.”
Don’t say: “Aren’t our Kiwis better than their Kiwis?”
