Matt Williams: South Africa will win this test against Ireland, and the reasons are clear

The fact that Ireland have defeated the Springboks, the current world champions, in their last three meetings does not sit well in the minds that dwell in the Republic of South Africa.

So on Saturday Ireland don’t only take on the world champion Springboks at high altitude in Pretoria, they will do battle with the entire nation of South Africa.

The Irish have continuously frustrated the world champions and now stand between the Rainbow Nation and unquestionable global rugby supremacy.

At the legendary Loftus Versfeld style and panache will be irrelevant. Winning by any means is the only gig in old Pretoria town.

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So every scrum penalty awarded to the Boks will be met with the same wild jubilation as that expressed by a concert hall audience who have just experienced the almost supernatural uplifting of emotions of a virtuoso rendition of Beethoven’s ninth symphony.

“Come sing a song of joy” ... and that just for a scrum penalty. Wait until Handrè Pollard kicks it.

Driving mauls will be greeted with the same screaming passion as teenage Swifties yelling their love to Taylor at the Aviva. The Springboks backs will join in the crescendo of verbal support, because, apart from tackling and chasing kicks, that’s all that is required of them.

And the Boks supporters will lap it up.

At the final of the 1995 Rugby World Cup, when the Springboks outhalf Joel Stransky stood behind his mega pack and slotted a match-winning drop goal, the world rejoiced. When Nelson Mandela, wearing a Springbok jersey, handed the William Webb Ellis trophy to the great Springboks captain Francois Pienaar, he united his nation.

That winning 1995 formula – of a fearsome pack in front of halves with spectacular kicking skills, inside two centres that are superb defenders, with two speed merchants stuck on the wings – has been successfully reincarnated across the decades since that memorable day at Ellis Park.

Today is no exception, except that it is Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus, and not Mandela, who is uniting South Africa.

[ South Africa’s Rassie Erasmus turns on the charm ahead of Test against Ireland ]

After seeing him lead their team to victory in successive Rugby World Cups, the South African rugby public believes in their coach with a cult-like devotion.

Utilising the power of X, formerly Twitter, Rassie sets the agenda before every match, not only with his legions of Boks followers but right across the rugby world. He plays mind games with the media, the rugby public, opposition teams and – of course – referees.

Rassie’s leadership talents and cunning communication skills, added to his extreme rugby intellect, all mashed together with a splash of dramatic flare have united a politically fractured nation behind his Springboks.

This has made the Springboks more than a sporting team to the South African public – they are a movement. A living vision of the success the South African nation could become if only they could rediscover Mandela’s true vision and unite in pursuit of a common cause.

The Springboks are inspiring the Rainbow Nation, and their people are responding.

Technically, I do not enjoy the limited scope of the Springboks attack. Their overemphasis on scrummaging for penalties has, in my opinion, dangerously warped the games safety laws as they increase the number of forwards on their bench to implement a 7-1 or 6-2 split. As Ireland and other teams have copied this tactic it has become a huge negative for our game.

That does not blind me from seeing the exceptional talent inside this Springbok team, that they are capable of playing a beautiful expansive attacking game that would show the world their skills. I deeply admire Rassie’s immense rugby intellect, which has driven every tactical decision, and their brilliant use of the media to sell their winning story to the South African public and the world.

To overcome all of these physical, tactical, emotional and cultural strengths of the Springboks, in the oxygen-thin air of Pretoria, makes this test match one of Andy Farrell’s greatest challenges. Thousands of kilometres away from the security of the Aviva, Ireland’s skills, tactics and character will be examined under the greatest of pressures. That is why they are called “Test matches”.

Ireland will be buoyed in the knowledge that their style of play, based on their short, rapid and accurate passing game, combined with an aggressive kicking plan, has in the past unsettled the Springboks like no other team on the planet has been able to do.

As Paul O’Connell hinted at this week, there is another key area for Ireland to attack. While it is not often spoken about, the Springboks are vulnerable when teams drop their body height and attack the space underneath these giants.

Historically, powerful South African team wants to play the game high, at chest level, so they can utilise their muscular superiority. When South African teams are forced to compete low to the ground, that superiority is neutralised. As the Kiwis say, “The low man wins”.

At scrums, mauls, tackles, clear-outs and the breakdown, Ireland must lower their body height and attack the space underneath the Boks.

In defeating the French in Marseilles in the opening round of this year’s Six Nations and by performing so magnificently in winning the series against New Zealand in 2022, Ireland have proved they are capable of success in the most hostile away environments.

Yet victory in Pretoria will require an even greater Herculean performance from this Irish team. It may come down to the most basic of questions. After a 13-month long season – which at the beginning held so much promise for Irish success but has delivered only heartbreak – can Ireland produce enough internal energy for a sustained 80-minute effort of the quality required to defeat the world champions at home on the high veld?

An Irish victory will require an effort from the men in green that may be a bridge too far at the end of a mammoth season.