Butterfingers
Last week, this column pointed to a concerning trend highlighting Ireland’s declining attacking output. As 2024 has gone on, Ireland have steadily become less efficient in terms of leaving with points every time they enter the opposition 22.
The suggestion before Friday’s defeat to the All Blacks was that teams were happy to concede quick ball to Ireland knowing that they could deal with their intricate phase play by keeping defenders on their feet. Numbers alone suggest the same trend continued against New Zealand. Ireland had a good quick ball rate of 62 per cent but only scored 1.43 points per 22 entry – their lowest figure since the 2023 quarter-final defeat to the All Blacks.
However, given Ireland only had seven total 22 entries on Friday, it’s difficult to say these stats prove any trend. We can’t quantify how efficient Ireland’s attack was because we didn’t see it thanks to 21 handling errors and the concession of 11 turnovers plus five attacking penalties.
To show that their attack isn’t declining, Ireland firstly need to just hold on to the ball.
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Soft middle
A narrative emerged after Friday’s defeat that Ireland’s defence was a positive. Yes, they conceded nine line breaks and 317 metres after contact (the most since England recorded 327m in last year’s Six Nations), but if you keep giving New Zealand possession after possession, they will eventually cut you open. That Ireland limited them to just one try is a testament to their last-ditch, scramble defence.
This argument has its merits, but overall it is unconvincing. Generally, more metres are made by backs who exploit space. These holes regularly come from beating defenders in the middle of the park, thus sucking in the wide men, or poor tackles on disorganised kick chases.
When England beat Ireland, they gained plenty of ground by targeting weaknesses in Ireland’s kick defence. New Zealand did not do that, thanks largely to Jamison Gibson-Park’s man-marking job on Will Jordan.
On Friday, Ireland were softened up in the middle of the park too often for the defensive performance to be labelled a success. Of the 30 missed Irish tackles, 16 were by forwards who, for the most part, operated close to the breakdown. Ireland did have a good dominant tackle rate of 11 per cent, but their bid to sell out for power translated to gaps elsewhere. The eye test of Garry Ringrose smashing Rieko Ioane was good, but the statistical reality tells a different story.
New Zealand had a modest quick ball rate of 43 per cent. Ireland’s line had time to set but still conceded momentum early in defensive sets. More consistent physicality is required.
Backline threats
Thanks in large part to New Zealand softening Ireland’s first line of defence, dangerous opportunities were exploited by their backs. Of the 30 Irish defenders beaten by Kiwi runners, 20 were felled by those wearing 9-15.
This week, Argentina come armed with their own battery of backline threats. Simon Chi is an analyst who calculates the expected points added (EPA) by players to a team performance; think rugby’s equivalent of individual xG.
In his team of the Rugby Championship, compiled by aggregating the total EPA from players in each position, every jersey from 12 to 15 saw an Argentinian beat out rivals from New Zealand, South Africa and Australia. Santiago Chocobares (29.17 EPA), Lucio Cinti (37.14), Mateo Carreras (25.80) and Juan Cruz Mallía (30.67) were the competition’s best centres, right wing and fullback in terms of how many points their individual actions added to Argentina’s total.
The good news for Ireland is that Chocobares and Carreras are injured. The bad news is that Argentina’s backs still looked good last week, albeit against a poor Italian effort. Wing Bautista Delguy beat six defenders and made three line breaks. Opposite wing Rodrigo Isgró had two line breaks. Centre Matías Orlando beat three defenders. Cruz Mallía carried for 144 metres (thanks in large part to a breakaway try) and beat three defenders.
If they offer as many holes as they did against the All Blacks, Ireland’s scramble defence will once again have to be on song to shackle an Argentinian outfit with just as many quality backs.
Kicking game
On this theme of strike runners, the new laws surrounding the kicking game become crucial with all teams, but especially ones with backfield threats such as Argentina’s.
Now that teams can no longer use blockers to protect players receiving high kicks, aerial contests have become more prevalent. The odds of clean ball won in the air have lengthened, increasing the number of balls hitting the floor.
This adds variance, which suits some teams more than others. Argentina’s backs will take any opportunity to run with quick transition ball. Against Italy, scores from Gonzalo Bertranou and Tomás Albornoz came directly from chasing kicks, reacting to a loose ball and creating chaos.
In that game, Argentina out-kicked Italy to the tune of 1,088m to 766m. They also kicked more often, totalling one kick per 5.5 passes. In their wins over New Zealand and South Africa this summer, using this kick-to-pass ratio, Argentina put boot to ball more often than their opponents.
Understanding the importance of kicking, Irish coach Alan Kingsley and former Leinster man Felipe Contepomi had already installed a pragmatism to Argentina’s play. Now, with the laws making aerial collisions less secure, they are a side well suited to take advantage.
Exploiting Argentina’s defence
What’s the good news here? Give us one weakness Ireland can exploit. Well, their attack, 21 handling errors, 11 turnovers and five attacking penalties conceded, can’t be as bad as it was last week. Famous last words and all that ...
What supports this theory is that, for all their carrying threat, Argentina’s defence is no great shakes – statistically speaking. Despite having a good Rugby Championship (TRC), Argentina conceded 32.5 points per match.
In their last seven games, Argentina have allowed an average of 265 post-contact metres (PCM) and 8.14 line breaks per game. For reference, Ireland’s average PCM allowed during the Six Nations was 182. Higher-quality southern hemisphere attacks might skew those numbers, but even in last weekend’s thumping victory over Italy, Argentina still conceded 340 metres post contact – more than in any TRC game – and seven line breaks.
Repeated errors have cost Argentina. In the two TRC games against South Africa, the Boks scored using the same backline move in the opening 10 minutes. On both occasions, a 10-12-15 strike play, with the 13 and 11 sucking in defenders, saw fullback Aphelele Fassi score in the outside centre channel.
Speaking to the Counter Ruck podcast, Contepomi labelled these scores as “frustrating”.
“Worse, it happened and we spoke about it,” he said. “What I would say is that we spoke about it, it happened again, so it’s on me that we couldn’t sort it. Maybe the message didn’t get through.”
If Ireland can hold on to the ball, there are gaps to be exposed.
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