Ireland v Argentina, Aviva Stadium, Friday, 8.10pm (Live on Virgin Media One and TNT Sports)
A week can be a long time in rugby, and especially in November. Before Ireland’s opening Autumn Nations Series game against the All Blacks, there was almost blase expectations of another November clean sweep. Now, instead, that hope has been dashed and danger looms large over the horizon.
After a first November home defeat since 2016, next up are Los Pumas, and the flip side of being the biggest gunslinger in town is that it makes you the most prized target. So, one imagines Felipe Contepomi had barely assembled his squad for their end-of-year tour than he had targeted a first ever Pumas win over Ireland in this ground.
With Ireland in need of a win to avoid successive defeats for the first time since February 2021, there is more at stake than the Admiral Brown Cup, named after the Argentinian naval hero William (aka Guillermo) Brown, who was born in Foxford in Mayo in 1777.
Contepomi loves Dublin and Ireland after leaving an indelible imprint in his eventful time with Leinster as a player and coach. He also had many great days against Ireland, not least in the 1999 and 2007 World Cups, as well as two home wins, but he lost against Ireland five times, including all four visits to Dublin.
Whereas Argentina have beaten Les Bleus five times in France, England twice at Twickenham, and have won in Scotland four times and Wales three times, they have lost all 10 Tests in Dublin (11 including the 1973 visit). So, while much of the spite from the Noughties has gone from this rivalry and Los Pumas still have to play France in Paris next Friday, beating Ireland would be the cherry on top to a landmark year.
Until 2016, when Ireland achieved the feat, only Martin Johnson’s vintage English team of 2003 had beaten the southern hemisphere big three in the same calendar year. Ireland repeated the feat in 2022 and now Los Pumas in 2024 can be added to that list.
The return of Guido Petti, Pablo Matera and Matías Moroni, as well as of the gifted Santiago Carreras to the bench, is a statement of intent. Granted, performances have been inconsistent, but this is a very settled Pumas side. They beat Italy 50-18 in Udine last week.
This is the same front-row that started their last five games. Tomas Albornoz has solved their outhalf conundrum, they’ve pace on the edges and the classy Juan Cruz Mallia is oozing confidence.
They also have licence to, selectively, play from anywhere. Contepomi once started a contender for Leinster’s greatest ever try off turnover ball near his own line and last week Albornoz instigated and finished a pitch-length try in his 20-point haul.
“He’s definitely gone back to their flair a little bit,” said Caelan Doris. “They’re playing with a lot more width. He [Contepomi] is a pretty creative guy. Some of the lineout plays that he came up with, with us [Leinster], were pretty inventive. He’s quite detail-orientated as well.”
With Matera alongside Juan Martín González, a slightly younger version of Doris, and Joaquin Oviedo, their back row has a typical Pumas’ dynamism and their battle with Ireland’s loose forwards could be worth the admission money alone.
“I’ve said to you guys before that I love playing against really good backrow players and tomorrow is another opportunity to do that,” said Doris after Ireland’s Captain’s Run in the UCD Bowl, where he remembers winning once with St Mary’s in the AIL. Doris is doing well to remember too, given his “debs” was later that night.
“Oviedo at number eight has been class as well. He’s a bit of a balance between Matera and Gonzalez in that he’s got good footwork, he’s a good athlete and he’s also extremely powerful and has the ability to play at the line as well.
“Gonzalez, I’m just struck watching him by his physicality, unbelievable pace and he pops up in wider channels quite a bit. Matera, I’ve played against him before and he has a lot of power, a lot of determination in his carry. A bit of a nuisance at the breakdown, all three of them are. I’m excited to test myself against them.”
As for Andy Farrell, retaining all but one of his starting XV while reinvigorating the bench is a statement of faith, while promoting Ryan Baird alongside Peter O’Mahony on the bench increases Ireland’s lineout options.
Improving discipline after Nic Berry’s costly 13-5 penalty count is paramount too. “I think nine of the 13 penalties were given away by forwards, and a lot of those were around the breakdown,” said Doris. “Yeah, cleaning our stuff up is the main thing.”
Statistics and damned lies. Ireland have won 22 of their last 25 Tests, but they’ve lost three of their last five. The All Blacks took a leaf out of England’s and South Africa’s manual by having the majority of the possession, reducing Ireland’s oxygen from lineouts and the breakdown.
Under Farrell, Ireland have achieved many landmarks by being a possession-based side. Generating quality lineout ball would infuse Ireland with a platform and confidence. The forecasted dryer conditions should help build more momentum through phases. Jamison Gibson-Park would then have the scope to probe the blindside as he does better than any “9″ and Jack Crowley would have more front-foot ball in more dangerous areas.
Although an ever-present since the World Cup, the Munster outhalf is under pressure and looks a tad short in confidence, going through the moves but not trusting his instincts. But he’s still only 24. This is all part of his and the team’s renewed growth.
Based on trust in this team, and just one week on, all that could change again.
Ireland: Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster); Mack Hansen (Corinthians/Connacht), Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster), Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster), Rónan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Buccaneers/Connacht), Joe McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster)(13), James Ryan (UCD/Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster), Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster), Caelan Doris (St Mary’s College/Leinster, captain). Replacements: Rob Herring (Ballynahinch/Ulster), Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster), Thomas Clarkson (Blackrock College/Leinster), Ryan Baird (Dublin University/Leinster), Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster), Craig Casey (Shannon/Munster), Sam Prendergast (Lansdowne FC/Leinster), Jamie Osborne (Naas/Leinster).
Argentina: Juan Cruz Mallia (Toulouse); Rodrigo Isgró (Harlequins), Lucio Cinti (Saracens), Matías Moroni (unattached), Bautista Delguy (Clermont), Tomas Albornoz (Benetton), Gonzalo Bertranou (unattached); Thomas Gallo (Benetton), Julian Montoya (Leicester Tigers, captain), Joel Sclavi (La Rochelle), Guido Petti (Bordeaux), Pedro Rubiolo (Newcastle Falcons), Pablo Matera (Mie Honda Heat, Japan), Juan Martín González (Saracens), Joaquin Oviedo (Perpignan). Replacements: Ignacio Ruiz (Perpignan), Ignacio Calles (Pau), Francisco Gomez Kodela (Stade Français), Franco Molina (Exeter Chiefs), Santiago Grondona (Bristol Bears), Gonzalo Garcia (Zebre), Santiago Carreras (Gloucester), Justo Piccardo (Pampas).
Referee: Paul Williams (NZR).
Overall head-to-head: Played 24, Ireland 15 wins, Argentina 8 wins, 1 draw.
Last five meetings: (2021) Ireland 53 Argentina 7 (Dublin). (2018) Ireland 28 Argentina 17 (Dublin). (2017) Ireland 28 Argentina 19 (Dublin). (2015) Argentina 43 Ireland 20 (RWC q/f Cardiff). (2014) Argentina 17 Ireland 23 (Tucuman).
Betting (Paddy Power): 1/6 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 4/1 Argentina. Handicap odds (Argentina + 11 pts), Evens Ireland, 16/1 Draw, Evens Argentina.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
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