Gerry Thornley: Scotland growing in confidence but Schmidt’s Wallabies are on a roll

Australia have taken wins over England and Wales so far in the Autumn Nations Series

Joe Schmidt's Wallabies face Scotland at Murrayfield on Sunday. Photograph: Morgan Hancock/Getty Images
Joe Schmidt's Wallabies face Scotland at Murrayfield on Sunday. Photograph: Morgan Hancock/Getty Images

The Counter Ruck

The Counter Ruck

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Whatever about TNT’s presenter Craig Doyle labelling Scotland-Australia as the game of the weekend – the Friday night fare from Paris between France and Argentina has a fairly tasty look to it too – Sunday’s game at Murrayfield (kick-off 1.40pm) has plenty of intrigue, even from an Irish point of view.

Following on from their four-match summer tour of the Americas (and fair play to them for broadening rugby’s international reach), if the Scots beat Australia that would constitute their sixth win in seven games since losing 17-13 to Ireland in the Aviva Stadium on the final weekend of this year’s Six Nations.

Granted, Scotland have filled their boots against Canada (78-12), the USA (42-7), Chile (52-11), Uruguay (31-19), a Fijian side missing their Top 14 and Premiership players (57-17) and Portugal (59-21).

Even so, they next host Italy in round one of the 2025 Six Nations before entertaining Ireland at Murrayfield a week later by which point Gregor Townsend’s team might have won seven of their previous eight fixtures if he can achieve a rare win over a Joe Schmidt-coached side.

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Not surprisingly, they are quite chipper about their chances against Australia on Sunday too. Before Australia’s 16-15 win here two years ago, Scotland had won the three previous clashes, including a resounding 53-24 win over the Wallabies in 2017.

However, that was out of kilter with the other four clashes since 2016, which were decided by margins of five, two and one point (on two occasions), and this clash seems more likely to follow that trend.

A little surprisingly, Paddy Power bookies make the Scots four-point favourites on the handicap. Not much can be gauged from Scotland’s fairly facile wins over Fiji and Portugal in between losing 32-15 at home to the Springboks, but Australia look transformed under Schmidt on this end-of-year tour.

Indeed, the Six Nations sides have taken something of a battering from those in the Rugby Championship, losing seven of nine head-to-heads, the only exceptions being France’s one-point win over New Zealand and Ireland’s three-point win over Argentina.

No runs of results have illustrated that this year’s Rugby Championship was of a better quality than widely believed more so than Australia’s this month. They finished last in the Rugby Championship, their sole win coming on a sodden day in Santa Fe against Argentina in round three.

A week later, the Wallabies were eviscerated by Los Pumas to the tune of 67-27, admittedly amid reports of food poisoning in their ranks and the concession of three converted tries in the last five minutes. They also came within a whisker of completing a stunning comeback against New Zealand when losing by 31-28 in Sydney, albeit they were beaten 33-13 a week later in Wellington.

Even so, they arrived in the northern hemisphere at a seemingly low ebb and were rank outsiders in their opening Autumn Nations Series game against England in Twickenham.

Inspired by a fearless debut by their expensive rugby league recruit Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii and a brilliantly conceived try in the last play of the game by substitute winger Max Jorgensen, Australia completed a remarkable 42-37 win.

Confidence now soaring through their veins, the Wallabies ran riot against a Welsh side that couldn’t match their physicality nor pace, winning 52-20 last Sunday.

Were they to beat Scotland, Schmidt’s team would be three quarters of the way towards emulating the legends of 1994, when Alan Jones’ fabled tourists, inspired by Mark Ella’s try in every Test, beat the four home nations in consecutive weeks to etch their name in Australian sporting folklore.

Michael Cheika’s team completed the first half of the Grand Slam in 2016 with victories over Wales and Scotland before losing to Ireland and England after defeating France in Paris in between.

In 2009, Robbie Deans’ Wallabies opened their quest with an 18-9 triumph over England at Twickenham before a last-gasp Brian O’Driscoll try earned Ireland a 20-20 draw in Dublin to scupper their hopes of a Grand Slam.

So, as much as Six Nations successes are to be welcomed, the thought of Schmidt’s class of 2024 setting up a tilt at emulating the 1984 legends against Ireland next Saturday would be fairly appetising.

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