Time was when the old Five Nations used to kick-off within three or four weeks of Christmas Day. Up to and including 1997, in fact, before it was shunted back and even finished in April. But next Friday the 2025 Guinness Six Nations begins on the last day of January when France host Wales in the Stade de France. And, as back in the old days, the return of the Championship is never a moment too soon.
Tradition decrees the Championship fills that post-Christmas, bleak midwinter void of early darkness, gloomy weather and when not much else seems to be happening. Rugby’s oldest international tournament does so with a rich clash of colour, travelling fans and five weekends crammed into a seven-week window, while also taking us through to springtime and brighter weather.
This year’s edition is a quarter of a century on since Italy were granted entry and the Five became Six. In a landmark opening game, a brilliant if ageing Azzurri team kicked off the opening round with an inspired and emotional 34-20 win over Scotland in the charming Stadio Olimpico as Diego Dominguez kicked six penalties, three drop goals and a conversion in his 29-point haul.
Who will start at 10 for Ireland during the Six Nations?
Yet only this year, with rugby’s usual speed and vision, did the sport’s grandees finally get round to holding its launch in the Eternal City; the coaches and captains posing in front of the Colosseum in fitting if belated pre-tournament images.
Speaking at the launch Warren Gatland, who was in his third Championship campaign as Ireland coach back in 2000, recalled that in those days the pre-tournament hype and discourse invariably focused on the two heavyweights, England and France. Moves were afoot among the TV companies to ensure England-France were scheduled as a fitting finale for the final weekend, and there would even be idle chat of them breaking away in the 1990s to play against their three southern hemisphere counterparts; nonsense which, to his credit, Clive Woodward, always rubbished.
But Gatland was right. England and France lorded things. Five years into professionalism, they were best equipped to make the transition, or more likely there was less of a transition for them to make.
Although Scotland had won the last Five Nations in 1999, between them England and France had won seven of the previous eight Championships and would win seven of the next eight as well. The only other exceptions were Wales, in 1994 and 2005. In other words, from 1991 to 2007, England and France won 14 of 17 titles. (Dear younger readers, Ireland didn’t really count back then, having last won a title in 1985.)
As Gatland also noted at the launch, all has changed, changed utterly since we were in the midst of that Anglo-French duopoly, and in latter years the Championship has been altogether more competitive and unpredictable. Indeed, it’s been such a transformation since 2007 that of the ensuing 14 titles, Ireland have won six of them and Wales five, with just four for England and two for France.
In truth, the Irish worm began to turn under Gatland’s watch, for there were a couple of landmark wins in that 2000 Six Nations. Following a 50-19 hammering in Twickenham, Gatland gave debuts to John Hayes, Simon Easterby, Peter Stringer, Ronan O’Gara and Shane Horgan, as well as recalling Mick Galwey, Denis Hickie and Girvan Dempsey for a 44-22 win over Scotland which proved transformative.
This was swiftly followed by another benchmark day on the Sunday of round four, when Ireland ended their Parisian hoodoo dating back to 1972 thanks in large part to a hat-trick by Brian O’Driscoll.
The latter’s baggy jersey looks like it’s from a different world and tells us much about how rugby players have changed physically and likewise their playing garb.
It would still take until 2009 before O’Driscoll, O’Gara, Hayes, Paul O’Connell et al would deliver a Grand Slam and end a 24-year wait for a Championship title, but that would prove a seminal breakthrough, finally ridding Irish rugby of an inferiority complex dating back decades.
Now Ireland approach this year’s Championship seeking to become the first team to win the title outright three times in a row. Granted, points difference was only introduced as a means of deciding the title in the event of teams finishing level on match points in the 1980s. Even so, this year’s Six Nations offers this team to cement its claims to being Ireland’s greatest team of all time.
Then again, that it’s never happened before also demonstrates why a three-peat is so tricky. England came close in 2002 when only denied a third title in succession by a 20-15 defeat in Paris in round three which proved a title decider as France went on to complete a Grand Slam; a great England team finally reaching their Holy Grail a year later in winning both an elusive Slam and the World Cup.
France were denied a three-peat in 2008 when finishing third with three wins and two defeats, a fate which befell Wales in 2014. Joe Schmidt’s Ireland class of 2016 started their tilt at three titles in a row by drawing at home to Wales and losing away to France and England before salvaging third place with wins at home over Italy and Scotland.
Having won a Slam in 2016 and the title in 2017, ala Ireland now, Eddie Jones’ England began with wins over Italy and Wales at home before losing to Scotland, France and an Irish team which completed a St Patrick’s Day Grand Slam coronation at Twickenham, so finishing fifth.
History, therefore, suggests the odds are against Ireland. Furthermore, the French clubs are dominating the Champions Cup, earning five home Round of 16 ties. Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack are back in harness and having won just one of the last 14 titles, Les Bleus are probably due another.
Forecast pecking order:
- France
- Ireland
- England
- Scotland
- Italy
- Wales
