Ireland have not lost to Scotland since 2017. Yet every year, the Scots seem to come into this fixture with more and more hope of ending their hoodoo.
In recent years, Ireland haven’t been at their fluid attacking best against Scotland, but crucially they have found a number of ways to shackle the Caledonian running threat. By looking back at those contests, as well as Scotland’s most recent outing against Italy, here are five areas which Ireland can target to preserve their seven-year unbeaten streak.
Starve them of possession
In the last two meetings, Scotland have averaged 10 points a game against Ireland. In 2024, when not playing Ireland, Scotland averaged 24 points per game. How have Ireland stifled them?
Whether planned or otherwise, last year’s title-securing victory at the Aviva Stadium saw Ireland simply keep the ball away from Scotland. The possession stats read 59-41 per cent in favour of Ireland. Even that gap isn’t a true reflection, Ireland making 152 carries to Scotland’s 93.
Gregor Townsend’s side still earned 251 metres after contact (compared to Ireland’s 283 from a significantly more carries), while the line-break count was even at four apiece. Scotland’s attack fired shots but not enough to get over the try-line until Huw Jones slipped a tackle for a late consolation score. Remarkably, in last year’s game, Ireland conceded 21 turnovers but still had such possession dominance, perhaps a poor reflection on Scotland’s own ball retention.
Like Ireland, Scotland are not a team which scores many counter-attacking tries. That might change with electric wing Darcy Graham playing in his first Six Nations campaign since 2022, but historically speaking, starving Scotland of the ball deprives them of their phase-play strength while feeding Ireland’s.
Sometimes attack can be the best form of defence.
Entries into opposition 22
The second way Ireland have limited Scotland’s scoring comes down to territory. Against Italy last week, Scotland had nine entries into the opposition 22. In their last two games against Ireland, they had just 10 across 160 minutes.
If Ireland’s possession dominance explains this stat in 2024, the same can’t be said for the 2023 win in Murrayfield, infamous for the injury crisis which saw Cian Healy scrum at hooker and Josh van der Flier throw into the lineout. Then, the possession split was only 49-51 in favour of Ireland, while Scotland nearly matched the visitors’ carry total (122 vs 123).
Instead, Ireland pulled off a vastly superior territorial kicking game. They kicked more often (28 vs 19) and made significantly more ground via the boot (863 metres vs 684). As a result, 59 per cent of the game was played in the Scottish half. Ireland had nine 22 entries that day compared to Scotland’s six.
Against England last week, after a first quarter in which they overplayed and offered England territorial dominance, Ireland ended up winning the kicking battle (948 metres vs 814). They also held on to the ball more (125 carries vs 107). One, or both, of these will be crucial against a Scottish side with a more dangerous attack which thrives on positive territory.
Finn Russell
Unsurprisingly, outhalf Finn Russell is widely seen as the key to Scotland’s threatening backline. For years, Russell was labelled as a maverick, a man who can gift away scores through needless errors as easily as he could unlock a defence.
While Russell has become so reliable in recent years that this stereotype has become unfair, the negative aspects returned last weekend. Against Italy, he coughed up four turnovers, missed three tackles and gifted Italy their only try when throwing an interception straight to Ignacio Brex.
What happened for that intercept may well be of interest to Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose. Italy’s midfield defence did not shoot up into Russell’s face, likely fearing that any lapse in timing would allow the outhalf to pass into space before they reached him.
Instead, they crowded the passing channels, rushing up to cut off the centres who could receive a pass. This forced Russell to delay. When given too much time to think, instead of acting on instinct, he threw the interception.
Intriguingly, on other occasions, when Russell wasn’t on the ball, Italy did rush up on to the carrier. Twice, Brex and Giacomo Nicotera charged off the line, smashing their man behind the line as team-mates supported to win a breakdown penalty. Ringrose will be taking notes.
Disrupters-in-chief
Scotland don’t have the most powerful forward pack in the world. Yet in round one, of all six teams, they had the second highest proportion of carries close to the ruck (44.5 per cent). Surprisingly, for a team with their attack, they ranked second bottom for carries in the wide channels and phases travelling beyond both the first and second receiver.
Scotland like to keep things tight, but not because their forwards barrel over the gainline. Italy shackled them well, making 11 dominant tackles and ensuring Scotland currently have the competition’s lowest dominant carry rate (15.6 per cent).
Making ground was not the goal of these carries. Instead, it was to secure quick ball. Scotland are happy to have neutral or negative carries in exchange for sucking in defenders, recycling the ball quickly before shifting it to their backline at the right time.
Italy stopped the carrying momentum of the forwards, but they couldn’t slow down the ball. Fifty-three per cent of Scottish rucks lasted fewer than three seconds.
Ireland, too, will back themselves to overpower the Scottish pack, but they could well have to do a better job of disrupting the breakdown. In the last two meetings with Scotland, Ireland allowed them quick ball rates of 54 and 62 per cent. Those figures will have to come down if the same possession and territorial dominance of recent years cannot be matched.
Attacking punch
What then of Scotland’s defence? Last weekend, Italy were limited to 19 points and a lone try via an opportunistic intercept.
The Italians had just five 22 entries on Saturday but still had an expected points figure of 31.9, according to Opta. When Ireland beat Scotland last year, they only scored 17 points despite an xP figure of 37.1. Attacking inefficiency could well be at play, but there is a trend here of Scotland forcing teams to underperform their xP through resolute defence.
After that game in the Aviva, Townsend outlined his defensive strategy. Scotland didn’t rush off the line, maintaining their connection in defence and allowing Ireland to come to them. This allowed groups of defenders to swarm around individual carriers, holding them up in contact and slowing down the ball.
The solution is for Ireland to add more punch. Energy, aggression and clever running lines are required to force holes in the line. If you disconnect a defence which relies on connection, rather than speed, you’re in business.
Ireland had some of that punch last weekend when James Lowe shrugged off English defenders. Interestingly, Ireland still underperformed their xP (39.9) by more than 10 points. Their efficiency may well have to improve against a Scottish defence which historically has been good inside their own 22.
