There are three metrics that stand out more so than others when analysing Wales' 14-match losing streak that has led to the departure of head coach Warren Gatland, following a second term in charge, and his assistant Rob Howley ahead of Saturday’s Six Nations game against Ireland at the Principality Stadium.
Indiscipline has been an escalating problem – it is usually a bugbear for teams that are losing matches.
Wales conceded an average of 8.2 penalties (41) during the 2024 Six Nations, a figure that jumped to 12 over two Tests against Australia (11+13) last summer and, despite dropping slightly to 11.77 in the Autumn Nations Series, is back up to an average of 13 in the current Six Nations to date.
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The Welsh lineout, once at accomplished and effective part of their armoury at the start of the run, has dropped off alarmingly in terms of effectiveness, below 80 per cent at times, while the third standout weakness centres on the effectiveness of the attack, Wales predominantly in single figures for line-breaks in matches and managed just one on two occasions.
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February 8th, 2025: Stadio Olimpico, Italy 22 Wales 15
The most glaring statistical anomalies from this match from a Welsh perspective were that they made 17 handling errors to their opponents' four and were worse off in turnovers (11-7). Despite outscoring their hosts in try terms, the real damage was done by the concession of 14 penalties.
January 31st, 2025: Stade de France: France 43 Wales 0
Indiscipline, highlighted by a 12-3 penalty count against them and two yellow cards (Romain Ntamack was sent off in the 69th minute), was a manifestation of pressure but the concession of seven tries on foot of 27 missed tackles and a completion rate of 87 per cent was insurmountable for the visitors.
November 24th, 2024, Principality Stadium: Wales 12 South Africa 45
Once again, the spotlight was on the failure of the Welsh team to fire on either side of the ball. The Springboks limited their hosts to 213 metres from 62 carries compared to own 1,065 from 83. South Africa dominated everywhere – defenders beaten (46-6), line-breaks (15-1) – as the home side were obliterated.
November 17th, Principality Stadium: Wales 20 Australia 52
Four months on from a 2-0 series defeat in Australia, the gap between the sides had grown even further with the Wallabies racking up eight tries to their opponents' two, and produced 14 offloads to their hosts' one. Wales lost four of 12 lineouts as the set piece was an issue, as was a liberal turnover rate.
November 10th, 2024, Principality Stadium: Wales 19 Fiji 24
Fiji claimed a historic triumph 60 years after their first appearance on Welsh soil. Wales led 14-3 midway through the first half, with tries from debutant Blair Murray and Cameron Winnett. It was the manner in which the visitors exerted pressure and exposed Wales' Achilles heel, indiscipline, coupled with 16 handling errors and 11 turnovers.
July 13th, 2024, AAMI stadium, Melbourne: Australia 36 Wales 28
Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies won for the first time in seven years in Melbourne to take the series 2-0. Wales did produce a much better attacking display, sharing the try count, 4-4, and were in with a chance right up to Ben Donaldson’s late penalty. The lineout (9/12) was once again a problem for the visitors, who also failed to make the most of significant territorial dominance (68 per cent).
July 6th, 2024, Allianz stadium, Sydney: Australia 25 Wales 16.
Wales produced a gritty performance in the first Test, but it didn’t suffice as a faltering set piece cost them a stable platform. The visitors could only manage 76 per cent success on their lineout throw (13/17) while the scrum operated at 67 per cent. A yellow card and 11 penalties too.
June 22nd, 2024, Twickenham: South Africa 41 Wales 13.
South Africa came up to London ahead of hosting Ireland in two summer Tests. The Welsh trailed 14-13 at half-time despite two yellow cards, but a penalty count that reached 15, a power and subtlety deficiency in attack (34 carries for 170 metres) and a failure to score again cost them dear.
March 16th, 2024: Wales 21 Italy 24
Wales were rocked by the speed and aggression of the Italian defence in the first half which paved the way for the visitors to take an 11-0 interval lead, the home side spurning several scoring opportunities (18 handling errors). Two converted tries in the last couple of minutes put a gloss on a matt performance in terms of accuracy.
March 10th, 2024, Principality Stadium: Wales 24 France 45
Wales wilted under the blowtorch heat applied by the French attack, conceding 25 points in the final quarter of the contest in Cardiff. The home side didn’t get much free access into the game with France conceding just three penalties across 80 minutes. The visitors were more effective in attack, creating and exploiting opportunities.
February 24th, 2024, Aviva Stadium: Ireland 31 Wales 7
Wales conceded six penalties inside the first 20 minutes, contributing hugely to Ireland taking a 17-0 lead. Despite a penalty try and a yellow card for Tadhg Beirne, the visitors could not stifle their hosts' attacking verve: 36 defenders beaten to 15, 12 line-breaks to one.
February 10th: Twickenham, England 16 Wales 14
Wales played against 13 players for six minutes (two yellow cards) and led 14-5 at half-time but ultimately couldn’t outrun a fast-finishing England team who struck back through Fraser Dingwall and George Ford. The Welsh tackle-count percentage (82) was appreciably lower than normal, but the metrics were generally positive in many areas despite the outcome. A narrow failure.
February 3rd, Principality Stadium: Wales 26 Scotland 27
Scotland led 27-0 early in the second half but what ensued was arguably the best concerted period of play from a Welsh team who scored four tries – the match penalty count was a remarkable 16-4 in their favour – and came within a whisker of winning. Set piece was again an issue, losing six of 20 lineouts, handling errors (13-4) and turnovers (10-4) too.
October 17th, Stade Velodrome, Marseilles: Argentina 29 Wales 17
A World Cup quarter-final. Few would have envisaged that Wales were about to embark on a 14-match losing sequence, especially after thrashing Australia 40-6 at the pool stage. Gatland had taken over a year earlier. Wales led 10-0 and 17-12 but got the rough end of the officiating and were unlucky too.
