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Think you know when it’ll be time to tell Bundee Aki and Tadhg Furlong to step aside?

Ireland and Andy Farrell have to plan for the future but that means adding up more than just numbers

Bundee Aki will be 37 when the next Rugby World Cup comes around. Photograph: Ben Brady/Inpho
Bundee Aki will be 37 when the next Rugby World Cup comes around. Photograph: Ben Brady/Inpho

Rory McIlroy was stoic about his life’s journey this week. With the 49-year-old Tiger Woods recovering from an Achilles tendon rupture and unlikely to feature in any of the Majors this year, McIlroy celebrated his career choice and the possibility of longevity in a sport where, in advance of turning 36 in May, he still has plenty of agency at the elite end.

“I can acknowledge how lucky golfers are to be able to do what they do for so long compared to other athletes, so whenever I feel like the time is right, I’ll have no problem moving aside and letting the next generation do their thing.”

He expressed doubt that he would be still playing at 50, but acknowledged that in the past he has had to walk back things he has said. The truth is he won’t know what his appetite and ambition for the game are like, whether professional golf and the endless hotel life has worn him down, until he reaches that age.

“Not a lot of athletes can say they’ve had an 18-year career and I’m only 35,” he said. How right he is.

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This week in the High-Performance Centre in Sport Ireland similar conversations were taking place among the Irish rugby squad without the luxury of the cushion golfers have.

The mood, as James Ryan expressed it, was hopeful, with the group looking to end this Six Nations Championship on an upswing. A “proper week” he called it. There were various reasons for that − determination to deliver a bigger performance than against France, a professional attitude and the aim to appropriately close the careers of three players who have been stalwarts in the game.

With just one phrase Ryan indicated that this week is possibly the beginning of the band breaking up. “Different guys will go and other guys will come in,” he said.

Ryan was obviously referring to the retiring Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray and Cian Healy. The lock, who is 28-years-old and under contract for three more years, understands they won’t be the only players to leave over the next few years.

In the choreography of players coming and going, the Six Nations Championship, Irish rugby’s cash cow, and the Rugby World Cup feature strongly in the timing of the transitioning process.

Andy Farrell has a different job to do now than he had when he was 2½ years out from the 2023 World Cup in France. For 2023 he had to make sure his group was peaking during the tournament – this time around he has to judge which players will still be viable candidates in 2½ years.

In that, the sabbatical with the Lions may help. Farrell will come back after the summer having been away for almost a year. There is a freshness to that, as well as an experience of being around many of the best players in the world across different countries.

In reality, the process of change has already begun. Gus McCarthy is on the bench for this week’s match against Italy as replacement hooker, Jack Boyle is there as replacement loosehead prop, Jamie Osborne had a run last week and there is the interchange at 10 with Jack Crowley and Sam Prendergast.

Still, at the heart of the team the age profile of some of Ireland’s frontline players may need attention with an eye on Australia 2027. The tournament starts at the beginning of October that year, at which point Bundee Aki will be 37, Jamison Gibson-Park, Tadhg Beirne and Finlay Bealham 35, Jack Conan 34, Robbie Henshaw, Tadhg Furlong and Josh van der Flier 33, Garry Ringrose 32, Andrew Porter 31 and Hugo Keenan 30.

With 11 players who will be 30 or over, something has got to give. Or does it?

South Africa, a team Ireland beat in the pool stages of the 2023 Rugby World Cup went on, weeks later, to win the trophy in Stade de France. Rassie Erasmus, a coach for whom the normal tactics and belief systems of rugby do not always apply, lined out a team of Springboks to face New Zealand in the final with 11 players in their 30s.

The oldest, number eight Duane Vermeulen was 37 years old. All eight starting forwards were in their 30s and three of the backs − scrumhalf Faf de Klerk, former Munster centre Damian Allende and fullback Damian Willemse – were 31.

Also, five of the Springboks' eight replacements were 30 years old or more − Deon Fourie was 36, Trevor Nyakane 34, Jean Kleyn 30, Kwagga Smith 30 and fullback Willie Le Roux 34.

Erasmus, head coach Jacques Nienaber and defensive coach Felix Jones developed a vastly experienced and versatile South African squad. History shows success in the competition demands intensity, experience and squad depth over seven gruelling weeks.

Erasmus’s team showed that age is not necessarily the most important metric. Ireland, with an average age of 29.4, were younger than the tournament winners, whose average was 30.4.

McIlroy at 35 looking at golf in 2040 is a diverting notion. He’ll know when he gets there if age means anything. It’s no different for the Irish rugby players for Australia 2027. Don’t count them out just yet.