For the first time in 31 years, there will be, at most, two Irish provinces in the Champions Cup next season, with Munster needing to beat Benetton in what is liable to be a taut night in Cork next Friday to ensure there will be two.
But for Ulster and Connacht, their seasons are practically over, with next weekend’s matches away to Edinburgh and Zebre rendered dead rubbers from their perspectives after missing out on the United Rugby Championship playoffs and being consigned to next season’s Challenge Cup.
That is nothing especially new for Connacht, whereas it must feel seismic for Ulster, given they were the 1999 champions and hitherto been ever-presents in the premier European competition.
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Yet, by the same token, in their own inimitably frustrating way, this feels like more of an anti-climactic season for Connacht. Think back to their opening game of the season, that sun-kissed, 35-33 rollercoaster loss to Munster at Thomond Park when new halfbacks Ben Murphy and Josh Ioane clicked on debut together, the lead exchanged hands seven times, Santiago Cordero felt like a new signing and Bundee Aki was still to come back into the mix. Connacht looked set for a promising and entertaining season.
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That feeling was reinforced by a 36-30 comeback win at home to the Sharks (having trailed 27-7 at half-time) and a 24-23 win away to the Scarlets. As in the Thomond Park opener, there were then another couple of bonus points in a 32-27 loss to Ulster in Belfast.
But, as is now abundantly evident, there were warning signs even then, most notably Connacht’s ability to concede a truckload of points in quick succession, as well as score truckloads in spells. The latter was particularly true when all was seemingly lost, which perhaps tells us that either they had an inferiority complex or only then could they throw caution to the wind.
Connacht were usually good to watch but were probably the most frustrating team in the league, both for themselves and their supporters.
There was honour in defeat, as against Munster in their 27,000 Castlebar sell-out and Racing in their Challenge Cup quarter-final loss when the Parisians’ bigger bulk beat an increasingly patchwork team into submission.
But they were chances missed against 14 men for the majority of both games, and there were too many defeats, a dozen so far in 17 URC matches, with just five wins. Two seasons ago, in Andy Friend’s final season, Connacht won 10 games and finished with 50 points in reaching the semi-finals, compared to 35 this season with one game to play.
As nine try-scoring bonus points and six losing bonus points testify, Connacht were competitive, and they weren’t that far away. Only three teams have scored more tries than their 61, namely Leinster (77), Glasgow (69) and Munster (63).
But Connacht were far too easy to score against, and only Zebre and the Dragons have conceded more than their 460 points (Ulster have leaked 459).
In mitigation, when Pete Wilkins temporarily stood down as head coach, before doing so altogether for personal reasons, it added to the backroom upheaval given the end-of-season departures of two other members of the coaching staff. Playing in front of a glorified building site where the Clan Terrace used to be on one side of the ground probably didn’t help either.
Also, last Saturday’s 31-21 loss to Edinburgh followed the confirmation, by kick-off, that Connacht could not mathematically qualify for the playoffs and hence next season’s Champions Cup. That must have taken the wind out of their sails. Even so, it was their fourth successive defeat and so completed another decidedly anti-climactic home finale to their campaign.
They are now looking for a new head coach, and depending on his identity, a new defence coach, while the well-regarded Australian Rob Seib will arrive as a new senior assistant coach.
Most of all, the opening of the new stand and completion of the Dexcom Stadium’s redevelopment into a 12,000-capacity stadium at some point around Christmas or the new year, promises to be a huge boost for the squad, the organisation, the fan base and the province.
And so they beat on.
Ulster have a bigger history and tradition, so their decline from coming within one play of hosting the final three seasons ago seems sharper and more alarming.
That season, Ulster finished third in the URC table with 12 wins and 59 points. The following season, Dan McFarland’s last full campaign, Ulster finished second with 13 wins and 68 points, before finishing sixth with 11 wins last season.
This season they have won seven games so far. Like Connacht, they are just far too easy to score against, witness the 65 tries conceded (equal with Zebre, with only Dragons leaking more), and which compares less than favourable with the tallies of 34 and 49 tries against them in 2021-22 and 2022-23.
Having previously dipped into the Leinster pathway with some success, Ulster’s transfer policy, such as it is, has been woeful in the last three seasons, with a host of signings coming and going in the wake of a strong generation coming to an end following the retirements of Jack McGrath, Marty Moore, Jordi Murphy, Duane Vermeulen, Ian Madigan and company, with John Cooney now departing.
They are quick to hype up their players, perhaps too quickly, and it has to be said that Ulster has also developed a track record for not developing much-touted young players. The likes of James Hume, Robert Baloucoune and others have not fulfilled their potential, although Jacob Stockdale’s return to form this season is a credit to him, and Cormac Izuchukwu’s form since returning from injury demonstrates what they have missed in his absence.
There are more players coming through, such as Scott Wilson, Matthew Dalton, Ben Carson and Jude Postlethwaite, and Ulster’s polishing of young talent ought to improve under such a renowned under-20 coach as Richie Murphy.
The squad will be buttressed by the arrival of the 27-year-old Juarno Augustus, a former World Rugby Junior Player of the Year with the kind of age profile, power and work rate Ulster need. It would help hugely if Iain Henderson, Stuart McCloskey and others could stay injury-free. But it is still a callow looking squad and it looks like being a slow rebuild.
