Wales arrive in Dublin later this week for the 2022 Guinness Six Nations opener in the Aviva Stadium as the reigning champions once more. Last year's victory was their sixth title since the tournament was expanded to include Italy in 2000, including four Grand Slams, compared to Ireland's four championships and two Slams in the last 22 years and, of course, in 2019 Wales also reached their third World Cup semi-final.
This, as even the dogs in O'Connell Street are aware, is three more semi-finals than Ireland have ever managed. Seven quarter-finals, a quarter-final playoff and one pool exit, is Ireland's lot at nine World Cups.
Hence, it was understandable to hear Andy Farrell and Johnny Sexton describe the Autumn Series last November as the start of a two-year journey culminating in the 2023 World Cup. But it also grates that Irish rugby might once again be judged purely through the prism of not winning World Cup quarter-finals every four years.
Is reaching a World Cup semi-final the be all and end all? Is it even quite what it’s cracked up to be?
Wales finished third in the inaugural 1987 World Cup, due to an opening 13-6 win over an Irish side whose players had been wrapped in cotton wool for months (the prevailing IRFU wisdom at the time) and a quarter-final win over a poor England team. They were beaten 49-6 in the semi-finals by New Zealand.
Regardless of next Saturday's result, Irish rugby is still in a healthier place than Welsh rugby
In 2011 Wales ambushed Ireland 22-10 in the quarter-finals in windy Wellington before unluckily losing 9-8 to France in the semi-finals after Sam Warburton’s red card. Given the way New Zealand choked in the final, who knows what that fine Welsh side might have done.
Ironically, in the quarter-finals in 2019, France were far from flattered by a 19-10 lead and were mauling toward the Welsh line in the 49th minute when Sébastien Vahaamahina was red-carded for elbowing Aaron Wainwright in the jaw. Wales won by dint of a questionable late Ross Moriarty try and afterwards even Warren Gatland admitted: “The better team lost.”
The point being that World Cups can partly be about the luck of the draw. For sure, there was no bad luck in Ireland losing to Japan nor when being beaten 46-14 by New Zealand in the quarter-finals in 2019, an anti-climactic performance after the highs of 2018.
Undoubtedly, that was the most important of the last five meetings between New Zealand and Ireland. No argument there. Yet last November marked the third Irish win in those last five clashes, which is not to be sniffed at, all the more so given it took 29 attempts and 111 years to break through that particular glass ceiling. By contrast, Wales’ 54-16 thrashing last November was their 32nd successive defeat by the All Blacks, dating back to 1953.
Beating the All Blacks
Scotland have reached one World Cup semi-final in 1991 by wins, all at Murrayfield, over Japan, Zimbabwe, Ireland and Western Samoa in the quarter-finals, when Ireland lost by a point late on to eventual champions Australia. But Scotland have never beaten the All Blacks and have earned three third places finishes in the Six Nations (Ireland have been in the top two 11 times).
Closer examination of the Six Nations since 2000 shows that Ireland have a significantly better win-draw-loss ratio of 72-3-35 compared to Wales’ 62-3-45. Indeed, only England have won more matches (75) in this time span.
Scotland (four times), Wales (once) and even France (once) have suffered the indignity of relieving Italy of the wooden spoon. Only twice in 22 years have Ireland finished outside the top half (Wales have finished in the bottom half a dozen times). While third place finishes don’t cut it with many, such consistency has to count for something.
Irish rugby has been spoiled. Perhaps understandably the grim 90s have been consigned to an almost sepia-tinged history. In the last 10 Five Nations Championships, Ireland lost 30 and won just eight games out of 40 - two against England and six against Wales. It was a bleak a decade for the Welsh too. Amazingly, Ireland won as many Five Nations games in Cardiff in the 90s as they did in Dublin! They also lost three of four meetings with Italy.
Furthermore, the performances of the Welsh regions most likely won’t matter again this time around. Match-ups in the international stage are not tests of contrasting depth charts.
But all four Irish sides are in the last 16 of the Champions Cup, compared to none from Wales and Scotland. Irish sides have won seven European Cups, and provided 11 finalists; Wales haven’t had one finalist and the Scots have had just one semi-finalist.
The four Irish provinces have won 13 of what are now URC titles, as against six by the Welsh, with Connacht’s 2015-16 success equaling the Scots’ entire tally of titles.
If the Irish players were asked to swap their three Six Nations titles, including two Grand Slams, the three wins over New Zealand, and the victories over South Africa, Australia and Argentina in recent years plus all those Euro and URC titles for one World Cup semi-final, none of them would touch the exchange with a barge pole. It’s doubtful any fair-minded Irish supporter would either.
Come the 2023 World Cup, Wales are in a pool with Australia and Fiji, and in the quarter-finals would most likely play England, Japan or Argentina.
Meanwhile, Ireland have been handed the toughest conceivable draw; navigate a way through a pool of sharks containing champions South Africa, Scotland and a Tongan side replenished with former Test players from other countries, to be rewarded with a potential quarter-final against either France or New Zealand. Ireland could be the third best side in the tournament and still exit at the quarter-finals again.
That shouldn’t demean every victory or achievement between World Cups. Regardless of next Saturday’s result, Irish rugby is still in a healthier place than Welsh rugby. Besides which, citing World Cup quarter-finals is a handy stick for the anti-rugby lobby hereabouts.
