The golden years could never last forever. Five Heineken Cups in seven years was almost too good to be true. We knew it at the time. But no one was expecting this.
Leinster are as good as out of the European Champions Cup, Munster have been badly wounded and even Ulster's sensational win over Toulouse on Friday night has only given them a lifeline. Saracens are still very much in charge of Pool One after their bonus-point win over Ravenhill. Most probably the best Ulster can achieve is one of the three best runners-up spots and with it an away quarter-final, and they've still some way to go to achieve that.
To date the trio of Irish sides have won two games out of seven. Early days but that’s a winning ratio of 28 per cent, lower so far even than the 42 per cent and 38 per cent winning returns in 1996/97 and ’97/98; the only two seasons when Irish rugby didn’t have at least one representative in the knock-out stages.
But at least then the provinces were firing a few shots across the bows of the English clubs – Munster thrashing Wasps and beating Harlequins at Thomond Park, while Leinster beat Leicester at Donnybrook. This season Wasps, Saracens and Leicester have stormed the RDS, Kingspan Stadium and Thomond Park by a cumulative nine tries to two.
There are a myriad of factors at work here. There’s the World Cup. There’s the increased spending power of the French and English clubs. There’s the reduced investment of the IRFU in the provinces amid a greater prioritising of the Irish team. There’s the heightened competitiveness of the revamped tournament. All three are transitioning under new coaches, along with the cyclical nature of things given the Irish teams are more reliant on home grown players.
Take the example of outhalves, who came under the microscope over the weekend. Including Ulster's triumph in 1999, it's assuredly no coincidence that the half dozen European Cup wins by Irish sides featured three men at the tiller, David Humphreys, Ronan O'Gara and Johnny Sexton, who have been Ireland's best 10s in the professional era.
Sexton's prodigal return was hailed by Leinster fans even more heartily than the departure of Matt O'Connor and the appointment of Leo Cullen. Maybe Sexton is feeling the weight of that responsibility. There had been signs of the real Johnny rediscovering himself in the win over Ulster. Again targeted in defence on Sunday, his tackling was, as ever, bravery personified – albeit again too upright to watch with comfort.
That’s happened before, and it shouldn’t have contributed to the misplaced kicks and, most unusually, misplaced passes; for Sexton’s distribution, with its golf-style swing, is as good as any around. Admittedly, there were some well executed wraparounds, and he dug in to find some rhythm before the end.But for him, it was wayward.
Ian Madigan has rarely looked so far from the action. His impact off the bench is proven, so the token three minutes at the end is hardly going to provide him with a compelling case to remain at Leinster.
Were Madigan to follow JJ Hanrahan’s path to England, or indeed France, it would be demoralising to lose another indigenous outhalf with real X factor. Hanrahan acquitted himself admirably in difficult circumstances for the near hour he was on the pitch against some bloke called Carter in Northampton’s defeat to Racing Metro 92. Despite the defeat, starting European Cup games against the likes of Carter perhaps adds to the justification for his move.
Inherited the mantle
Meanwhile, back in Munster, having inherited the mantle of Ronan O’Gara and seen Hanrahan depart, Ian Keatley must assuredly have heard of the rumours that the IRFU (or should that just now be David Nucifora?) might supposedly be interested in steering Madigan toward Munster.
While Anthony Foley is adamant that he and Munster have made no approaches to Madigan or anyone else, coming in the biggest game of his season to date, it cannot have done Keatley’s equilibrium any good, although only he knows how it affected him. It’s tough for supporters to adapt to leaner times when once their side were kings, but, in any event, for some of the Munster crowd to cheer ironically when Keatley was replaced was unbecoming of them and Thomond Park.
Amidst all of this, it's worth noting the fine performance of Paddy Jackson at the Kingspan Stadium on Friday night. Crucial to this, as ever, was the form of Ruan Pienaar. The vision and the execution for his left-footed cross-field kick to Luke Marhall was exceptional.
Pienaar’s presence, in this form, is crucial not just to Ulster but to Jackson’s development, and indeed the relatively youthful Stuart McCloskey and Luke Marshall. Jackson took the ball to the line and picked his passes with customary pace and precision, and it was great to see the potential of McCloskey and, again finally, that of Marshall.
The Ulster crowd are staying passionately with their team and this was a vital win in these very early stages in the Les Kiss reign. He has improved their defence and tweaked their game, and this in return has enabled Neil Doak to focus fully on restoring Ulster's skill levels to what they have been.
Admittedly, Toulouse were dire. Their fall from the heights of yore as four-time winners is even more alarming than that of Leinster. It will be interesting to see how they react for the rematch.
gthornley@irishtimes.com
