A World Cup final between England and South Africa provides food for thought. "What might have been"' for Ireland doesn't really wash. Not after the year our national team just went through.
From marathon Carton House days all the way to the miserable ending at Tokyo stadium, I doubt we will ever fully know what happened to Ireland in 2019.
Take 2007 as an example. You have heard about tactical malfunctions, overtraining and hotel nightmares outside Bordeaux, but – really – nobody knows how we went from that wonderful Croke Park night to being emptied by Argentina in Parc des Princes.
Due to the intricacy around Irish rugby, it is unlikely our players will be afforded an opportunity to come out with as honest and clear explanation.
I’d worry for them now. I’d worry for James Ryan having seen the dip experienced by Maro Itoje and other Saracens immediately after the Lions tour. Scars run deep. Especially when there is precious little time to replenish. Some senior players may not be able to recover.
Andy Farrell’s most important calls will be in his first squad.
I find it very interesting how little sympathy was sought or sent the way of Irish players and coaches. That is the way it goes. You lose you go home. You swallow it.
The All Blacks struggled with this. Their “congratulations to England” line sounded disingenuous. The black front page newspaper is just arrogant. You lost a game of rugby fair and square.
Steve Hansen asking a journalist to step outside was a coach deflecting a tough question by hiding behind the All Black aura. Hansen didn’t like Kieran Read being asked about the hunger of the team, but it’s a legitimate question when a team loses. Even New Zealand.
It told me they are unable to handle defeat. Yes, it is a rare occurrence, but the response says so much. If they genuinely believed they lost to the better team why threaten another human being who is doing his job?
Collective
There was no disrespect in the question. Every team exiting the tournament has had to answer some form of similar question about the attitude of the collective.
“If you want to spend some time outside I’ll give you a rugby education on that one” is not how a senior personality in world rugby should be allowed to behave.
Yet England could be fined for encroaching on the haka, which is a war dance.
Saturday’s semi-final was not a one-off result. England proved they are superior to the current All Blacks. After losing to Ireland in Chicago, the New Zealand rugby team responded with a scintillating but violent display in Dublin two weeks later. The dethroned world champions were never beating up this English team.
Eddie Jones has addressed the flaws exposed in 2018. In contrast, New Zealand felt obliged to take enormous risks once their ball was slowed and set-piece damaged. They lacked the players of old who could create momentum from nothing.
Ardie Savea got visibly frustrated when forced to play off back foot possession. In years gone by any one from Jonah Lomu, Julian Savea, Sonny Bill Williams, Ma Nonu or Dan Carter could create a score out of thin air.
South Africa are only going to play one way. They will not change. Not now
Beauden Barrett was stymied by the number on his back. When it really mattered the great experiment of playing the best outhalf in the world at fullback did not work.
England were previously dependent on Billy Vunipola. It hurt them badly when he was injured last year. But they learned to cope without him – see clever tip on passing by Kyle Sinckler and Jamie George – and when Vunipola returned, along with Manu Tuilagi, it brought their capabilities to a whole new level.
Tuilagi looked unstoppable on Saturday. He carried Anton Lienert Brown and Jack Goodhue over the gainline with every run. This was how the victorious platform was built. The work rate of Itoje, Tom Curry and Sam Underhill completed one of the greatest ever performances by any rugby team.
Big challenge
Repeating it in the final will be almost impossible. The Springboks know this. Rassie Erasmus knows this.
England’s ultimate challenge is to keep playing rugby against an opposition that will seek to do anything but. Does Elliot Daly throw the offload leading up to Tuilagi’s try in a World Cup final? Staying true to themselves is England’s big challenge.
South Africa are only going to play one way. They will not change. Not now. They only have a year under Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber. We saw the same approach during the one and done Munster season. Evolution comes in year two. Not the week of a World Cup final.
Only Japan tops England for entertainment in the past seven weeks. Jones has them playing a stunning style that has been so enjoyable to watch.
The Springboks are not playing the villain – they are the bad guys at this World Cup. It’s dreadful to watch; boring, dour, ultra-physical from the biggest humans we have ever seen play the game. They are Darth Vader to England’s Luke Skywalker. England are the good guys.
I almost feel sorry for Felix Jones. At least his role in the South Africa set-up isn’t “attack coach” because there is no attacking strategy to highlight. Erasmus consulted the players on Jones’ appointment and it was agreed his brief would be to analyse the opposition’s defensive weakness.
South Africa are not even seeking to be progressive in any shape or form. Grind it out, says Rassie.
Half the backline cannot catch and pass to a provincial never mind international standard. Faf de Klerk, Handre Pollard and Willie le Roux are genuine play-makers but play-making has never been part of the plan.
De Klerk will hopefully end up being named player of the tournament – regardless of what happens in the final – as he has directed South Africa’s march through Japan. He has been a joy to watch, selfless and determined to a fault.
But le Roux, a proven world-class player, has been woeful at fullback. Pollard has kicked the goals and when forced to attack has looked quality but only when there was no space to kick the leather off the ball.
Arm wrestle
I would have thought Wales would have fired a few shots but they were unable to get any sort of foothold in Sunday’s semi-final. By embracing the arm wrestle it meant there could only be one result.
The Springboks replace six of their pack in and around 50 minutes, with Malcolm Marx, RG Snyman and Francois Louw guaranteed starters in every other team. England must not simply seek to match this with Mark Wilson, Joe Marler, Dan Cole and George Kruis. They must be two scores ahead at this point. Otherwise it is a grind, which is exactly how Erasmus hopes it will play out.
England must take their opportunities. They must score early. They must enter the inevitable collisions safe in the knowledge that it is the Boks who must change a habit of a lifetime.
This is by no means a foregone conclusion. England are playing pure rugby. The Springboks are playing pure knockout rugby.
A significant advantage is England avoided the French game due to Typhoon Hagibis and the extra day’s rest they have on South Africa.
We know what we do right in Irish rugby. Physically the players are looked after better than any other nation but psychologically something went awry
What will probably hurt Irish players the most this week is they know they are not a million miles away from England or South Africa. They are watching two squads who have nailed their preparation, all year and all tournament.
Shizuoka still feels like an opportunity missed. Had the Ireland team performed anywhere near their potential there would have been a quarter-final against South Africa. It would have been winnable.
Same mistakes
We will never fully know what went wrong. I say this because I don’t remember a full review after the 2007 or 2011 World Cups. There was an email, a quick survey, but nothing deep-rooted, and most importantly anonymous; an opportunity to provide insight about the coaching set-up to ensure our employers avoided making the same mistakes.
The players are always best placed after the fact. During the World Cup they must largely place their faith in management as they prepare to get themselves ready to play.
Now, after the latest quarter-final defeat, there is an opportunity to offer the Irish players an independent, unbiased and anonymous review to know with certainty what went wrong.
I'm not holding my breath this will happen, but seeking the opinions of Rory Best right down to Jordan Larmour about how they saw events from January to now should be the IRFU's primary duty before Andy Farrell formally takes over.
We know what we do right in Irish rugby. Physically the players are looked after better than any other nation but psychologically something went awry.
England and South Africa are the largest men playing rugby but that’s not the only reason they are still in Yokohama.
