Who will prove the difference at St James’ Park?
I think Seánie O’Brien can be the catalyst for Leinster’s fifth European title but there are so many variables to consider.
Come on, admit it, we are all guessing. Too close to call.
The game of the decade could be decided upon one from, say, 10 kicks being missed by Owen Farrell or Johnny Sexton.
Who blinks first off the tee?
The Champions Cup final might come down to a gust of wind. Or a lick of paint.
Maybe James Ryan will have the slightest edge imaginable on Maro Itoje. Or Billy Vunipola squeezes a vital yard more in carries than Jack Conan.
Or the great Springbok Schalk Burger’s last stand off the bench proves more effective than Scott Fardy.
Or the other way around. Impossible to say with certainty.
Newcastle is the last chance saloon for several legendary figures.
Burger returns to South Africa this summer while the Tullow Tank joins London Irish.
That’s what has me thinking about my former team-mate this week.
Sevens rugby was the first time I realised Seán O’Brien would become, well, Seán O’Brien. It was pre-season or an international break when I was coming back from injury. Something like that. Either way, a gang of us were building up stamina reserves with a week of rolling Sevens matches. Tag in, bust a lung, tag out. Reap the benefits when the big days come along.
Talented
Seánie had been in and around the squad for about a year. Great lad.
But he mostly filled in for established backrowers – Rocky, Jamie Heaslip or Shane Jennings – in training so the centres wouldn't know much about his ability.
Lots of talented flankers came and went.
Michael Cheika saw his rise and said as much at the start of the 2009/10 season but players need to witness it, repeatedly, before we believe in a young fella.
I was sold on Seánie after our first Sevens session. The engine on this kid! You could see he would destroy teams as his raw power would eventually turn him into a world-class backrow.
He eventually became this incredible number seven.
You could see the hunger.
It's well documented that he is different from most Leinster players coming through the schools system. Seánie grew up on a farm and needed to be brought straight into the academy or he wouldn't be able to afford the commute up to Dublin.
I missed a year with a serious arm injury that all but broke my spirit
He needed to succeed as a professional rugby player. That’s a powerful motivational factor for any young person – need, rather than desire – but Seánie always had the will. He always backed up his words.
People have written off this man countless times over a phenomenal yet injury-cursed 11-year career. Flicking through the list of surgeries and long periods of recuperation, I’m amazed he’s still going.
I missed a year with a serious arm injury that all but broke my spirit. Until it healed just before the 2009 Grand Slam – which Seánie missed out as David Wallace still ruled the openside flank – I had all but packed in my rugby career.
Seánie has come through three of four of those mentally crushing rehabs when you can easily lose hope as there is no fixed return date.
Only setbacks. But he still managed to dominate on two Lions tours. At the 2011 World Cup he was otherworldly alongside Jamie Heaslip and Stephen Ferris while 2015 was shaping into his signature tournament until Pascal Papé collapsed in a heap, after a gentle dunt to the stomach, that got him suspended for the quarter-final.
The Argentina game goes another way with Seánie leading the defensive line and slowing their supply line. His performance against the All Blacks in 2013 was sensational. What he did against Northampton in the second half of the 2011 final and repeated in 2012 will never be forgotten.
When a well-oiled O’Brien takes the field in a blue, green or red anything seems possible.
Unbelievable nick
The problem is time. He’s been avoiding the curly finger for a few seasons now. Yet he keeps reappearing in unbelievable nick.
It used to take him two, three games to snap into rhythm after injury.
Now it’s about five or six but we saw glimpses of the old Seánie against Toulouse. The sun was beating down so he wasn’t long discarding the trademark helmet. We saw that extra yard of carrying through contact. That extra stride to allow him offload for James Lowe’s try (same can be said about Cian Healy in the same attack).
The balance of the backrow will be interesting. If Rhys Ruddock returns at blindside Seánie can focus purely on being an openside. If Fardy starts the flankers will mix and match a little. Either way, the game should suit him.
Leinster need him to be the main man; a bulldozing run and quick presentation that allows them do to Saracens what no team has been able to do since Leinster put three tries on them in April 2018.
Having missed the Bilbao final and it being his swansong for the club, he never wanted to leave, I can only imagine the deep well of motivation he brings into the environment this week.
They will heed his voice as much as ever because Saracens have built a year-long revival on the back of losing at the Aviva Stadium.
Leinster matched them last season with a number of players proving the difference. Isa Nacewa had a key role in tries for Garry Ringrose and Lowe while the killer score came from Ryan linking up with Dan Leavy.
No Isa and no Leavy means Lowe and O’Brien must fill these holes.
Both men can do this.
It’s not all about Seánie, of course not, but it’s that aura he brings to inspire those around him to be better players, to exceed expectations.
We are also seeing this from James Ryan. His battle with Itoje will be my “player cam” for 80 minutes. I don’t think we got a fair sample of their rivalry in the Ireland v England game last February because the English were so dominant. Now they face off as part of the two best sides in Europe.
Ryan, to my mind, is the more complete player. Just marginally. It’s the game within the game.
But there will be so many little battles.
I can write about this for another few hours and I'll have changed my mind a dozen times
Certain players made the difference when Leinster won their four previous European finals. In 2009 it was Mal O’Kelly and our backrow of Jamie, Shane Jennings and Rocky. Johnny Sexton dominated the Millennium Stadium second half in 2011, finishing with two tries and 28 points. Seánie was peerless in 2012 against Ulster. Last year Isa kicked the points but Ryan and Leavy were the outstanding players.
Feeding frenzy
Having said that, this final, like most finals, is not about individuals.
It’s about the feeding frenzy that follows each moment of excellence.
Example: Lowe’s try against Saracens. Ryan made initial yards but there were several big carries before Lowe was halted on the try line by Itoje until Nacewa, Fardy and Jordi Murphy shunted him over. All 15 players smelled blood in the water.
Saracens have been the best team in Europe since 2016, not Leinster.
They are the two-time champions seeking to nail down this era as their own.
I don’t see the point in calling it. Flip a coin. I can write about this for another few hours and I’ll have changed my mind a dozen times.
Mako or Tadhg?
Liam Williams or Lowe?
Robbie Henshaw or Brad Barritt?
(Robbie)
And so on.
What a game this promises to be. Whichever team stays true to the way they have operated all season wins, with a little dose of X Factor.
I’m betting that comes from Seán O’Brien.
Side note: Now that Felix Jones and Jerry Flannery are leaving Munster this summer – having rejected "competitive terms" – Johann van Graan must rebuild the coaching team, almost entirely, for a third time in three years.
Leinster only began their ascent back up the European ladder after hiring a vastly experienced internationally proven expert in Stuart Lancaster
At some point the penny will drop that operating a professional sports club from one city (the head office is in Cork) with players and coaches in another (University of Limerick campus), a full 110km apart, does not make them a fully functioning organisation.
Mick Dawson only has to climb a flight of stairs to talk to Leo Cullen. Same applies in Galway and Belfast. That’s how a professional club must do business and not just in the modern era. In any era.
Leinster only began their ascent back up the European ladder after hiring a vastly experienced internationally proven expert in Stuart Lancaster. At least Munster have grasped the essential need to recruit in similar fashion by interviewing Rob Howley (and presumably others with similar CVs) to run the attack. That would allow Van Graan to focus on the big picture.
Leo remains the Leinster forwards coach on top of all his other duties but he’s about to be assisted by Robin McBryde (like Howley, coming from Warren Gatland’s multiple Grand Slam-winning Wales coaching ticket). Also, it’s no secret how Lancaster has shaped an overall philosophy. Van Graan and Munster need similar expertise to break that Champions Cup semi-final ceiling. They looked jaded against Benetton. The squad is at full stretch.
Wonder what Paulie and Rog think of it all?
