So Ireland is going to host the 2023 Rugby World Cup. That’s right, isn’t it?
Well, the Taoiseach Enda Kenny says so. He's quite bullish about it. "I am absolutely confident that Ireland will host the 2023 Rugby World Cup. " Mind you this is the man, and we'll choose from a recent vintage, who expected everyone to do their civic duty and accept the water charges. Look where the country stands on that issue.
Why is he so confident?
To paraphrase, he said that we're great craic and that we love sport.
Surely we don’t have the market cornered there?
Nope. I’m sure that South Africa, Australia, Italy, Argentina, France and potentially a joint bid from the USA/Canada don’t feel lacklustre or underdeveloped in their sporting ambitions or ability to party.
So they’re the rivals to stage the 2023 World Cup?
Yep. South Africa were unsuccessful under-bidders for the 2011 (New Zealand), 2015 (England/Wales) and 2019 (Japan) World Cups. They memorably staged and won the 1995 World Cup and they’ll want to be given a pretty good reason for being overlooked for a fourth successive time. Also the next two World Cups will be staged in the northern hemisphere per se.
So what’s the pecking order?
It'll become a little clearer when there is a defined list of runners and riders to mix the old sporting metaphors but in 2010 the former CEO of the old IRB - it's now called World Rugby - Mike Miller said that "it was a question of when not if," the USA would host a Rugby World Cup.
But Ireland would be top three in the running?
I'm afraid that's not guaranteed. Italy lost by a mere three votes to England in a bid to stage next year's World Cup. Argentina through former scrumhalf Agustin Pichot, have already stated their ambition to bring the 2023 World Cup to South America.
Jaysus, is there anyone we’re ahead of in the process?
Well, France was the primary host in 2007 tournament while Australia did so, alone in 2003. They’re probably outsiders strictly on the basis that World Rugby wants to spread the rugby gospel.
So the decision to award the 2023 World Cup might be based on philanthropic values?
Not on your nelly. World Rugby generates 90 per cent of its revenue stream from World Cups. Between 2009 and 2016, the governing body will invest in the region of €418,165,869 (£330 million) in the sport. They’ll want to maximise their revenue returns from the tournament.
So if that’s the case wouldn’t North America represent the most financially fertile and lucrative market?
At face value yes; they have the stadia, the infrastructure and massive sponsorship and broadcast opportunities. It would also be an opportunity for World Rugby to crack America in trying to get the sport a stronger foothold and a higher base in terms of numbers. They’re growing appreciably but a World Cup would accelerate that process. The suggestion is that any potential USA/Canada bid might go on a twin track approach of either the 2023 or 2027 tournaments.
Is Ireland about to spend a few euro on the tendering process?
Yes. €1.9 million and change. Non refundable.
What’ll it cost?
Well there'll be significant upgrade work required to several stadia (improvement of corporate/media facilities/car parking etc), including some of the ones that the GAA has kindly lent to the Irish rugby bid process, and also some of the rugby ones. Leo Varadkar, the then Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport, said earlier this year that figure could be €120 million. On a more pedantic note there is a minimum seating capacity of 16,000 for a match and the requirement for the World Cup final is a stadium that can accommodate upwards of 60,000 people. World Rugby hasn't disclosed what fee they'll be charging for the hosting the tournament but a figure of €127 million has been mentioned. The fees for the 2015 and 2109 World Cups were €101 million and €122 million respectively.
Do we have time to open a credit union savings account?
Yes. The formal tendering and consideration of bids is expected to take place in 2017 for the 2023 World Cup with the ratification of the winner, likely, based on previous experiences, to be confirmed in December of that year at a World Rugby council meeting. All bidders make presentations to the Rugby World Cup board and then they make a recommendation to World Rugby. Ireland have two representatives on council.
So there’ll have to be a bit of schmoozing done then. Are we likely to see some men with clipboards walking round Castlebar in the next 12 months?
No, they’ll probably be in Cape Cod or Cape Town.