Doubt has forever been the nemesis of confidence. Steve Hansen’s comment from November came into my mind last Saturday in Cardiff.
Steve was very serious when he said not everyone copes with being favourites.
The All Blacks coach was spot on.
Now, let’s see how Wales cope. Warren Gatland’s team have firmly replaced Ireland as the team to be knocked off the pedestal.
(Really, New Zealand are always the team to beat but the Grand Slam carries enough prestige to allow the southern hemisphere coaches to say this).
Ireland’s plummeting form happens to all good and great teams at some stage.
I’m not directly comparing like with like, but the team I played on at the 2007 World Cup until the 2009 Grand Slam experienced the full gamut of lows and highs. We got an injection of youth during this period, sure, but the players halted the slide – initially by accepting that there was an issue.
It took us a long time to recover from Bordeaux. We were nowhere near back on track when regathering for the 2008 Six Nations and the results showed, reaching rock bottom at Twickenham that season when torn asunder by a Danny Cipriani-led England. I avoided that experience due to injury but we were all experiencing the slump in a personal way.
This situation in 2019 is nowhere near as concerning. We all knew change was coming in 2008. This Ireland group do not need to do anything drastic but it doesn't make the challenge facing them less daunting. This is the biggest test of Joe Schmidt's coaching career while Andy Farrell brings valuable experience from his time with England at the 2015 World Cup.
What happens in this Six Nations is irrelevant come the World Cup. That's always been the way with Ireland
It is incredibly hard to pinpoint anything really specific that needs overhauling. There are no players on the outside looking in, screaming: pick me. The tactical menu presented by the coaches has no serious flaws.
Yes, execution of basics has been significantly off this year.
Is performance hurting the players’ form or the players’ form damaging performance?
We don’t know. Only they know the answer to that.
Working off any time I’ve not played well or a team I’ve been a part of has struggled, confidence was at the root of the problem.
If that wasn’t a collective concern after defeat to England, it must be after last Saturday’s game in Cardiff.
Confidence can betray a player at very short notice. I used to bank on shuffling over the gainline from inside centre. By hook or by crook, I’d find a way. You trust your footwork. You know you can accelerate away from forwards in traffic or find a soft shoulder or just get the job done with simple, straight carries.
I also took confidence from my defence. Send any shape or size down my narrow channel and he is 6in tall from studs to ankle. You trust your technique and put him to ground. You stay connected with your outside centre. Defend as a unit.
You don’t lose confidence from one bad game. You can recover within a few days as training gets you motoring again. But, say, I miss a few tackles on back-to-back weekends or crash into brick walls (that refuse to crumble), the gardener in your head starts planting the seeds of doubt. Small things in life or work that you carried effortlessly suddenly begin to weigh heavily. Soon, you are overthinking the simple tasks.
Doubt strips you of well earned confidence.
What tended to happen to me whenever this occurred was I’d start looking to other parts of my game to generate positive momentum. I could do a lot of impressive feats on a rugby field as a younger man but passing was never a natural gift. I worked on it to ensure a level of competency but turning to it as a remedy for other problems – like not being able to carry over the gainline – led to predictable results.
There would be a few cold stares as we stood under our posts watching the conversion.
A confident player works off instinct.
Good start
Ireland needed a good start last Saturday. The history of this fixture, especially in Wales when they were chasing a Grand Slam, demanded that Ireland score first. Or at the very least deny Wales early points.
From the kick-off Ireland's collective confidence disintegrated. George North forced Jacob Stockdale into touch after a perfect hanging ball by Gareth Anscombe. The lineout maul got set and James Ryan gave up a penalty so three points was all but guaranteed. That prompted Anscombe to, instinctively, attempt the spectacular.
Ireland defended with a high press because of the conditions. They came up hard knowing the slippy ball makes passing a treacherous exercise, so Anscombe calmly kicked in behind. There was no way back from Hadleigh Parkes try after 61 seconds. The damage of the tournament was too evident, psychologically the team were already too brittle.
Strangely, Ireland kept attempting a passing game despite the wet ball. You don’t need a professional rugby career in your back pocket to see the decision to leave the roof open back-fired.
It happens. Remember Eddie Jones gifting Stockdale a try at Twickenham last year by extending the dead ball areas?
The roof should have been closed. Not much more needs to be said. Lingering on that situation won’t bring any solutions. Ireland, the players and coaches will leave it where it belongs. In the past.
What has gone wrong that can be fixed?
I’m not going to pretend I know. What’s obvious is the players are attempting actions they wouldn’t have contemplated in November.
Confidence is low. Obviously. We know what the high days look like.
The players need to figure out why they are not clicking – what has changed? Again, a question for themselves alone
I’ve written this before: what happens in this Six Nations is irrelevant come the World Cup. That’s always been the way with Ireland. It was always about how we dealt with the collective mindset after the Six Nations. Carrying the tag of back-to-back title holders might have masked the current issues, until it was too late.
It is not too late, but the concerns are serious.
The frustrations are real. You can see it on senior player's faces. Johnny Sexton and Rory Best were disgusted with some of the refereeing decisions by Angus Gardner. Emotive behaviour is encouraging. They need to wear their hearts on their sleeves sometimes. In 2007, we went from disaster to disaster with stoic, stern expressions that were really only masking the panic of seeing our dream slip away, and being unable to change course.
An immediate improvement will come off the review. Ross Moriarty ran onto the ball at full pelt while CJ Stander's attempts to break the red line were from standing starts.
It’s not a tactical problem, it’s execution.
The players need to figure out why they are not clicking – what has changed? Again, a question for themselves alone.
Support staff
I want to stress this Ireland squad is not a group I have an inside track on but during my peak years in national camp we had support staff that proved vital when it came to solving little issues that would otherwise fester. Mick Kearney, and Paul McNaughton before him, was a great man to talk to about non-playing or non-training issues during a campaign. Mick was a conduit to the head coach. You could speak as freely as you wanted. You could moan away and Mick would translate your issues before relaying it to the coaching staff in a diplomatic way.
He understood Irish rugby, having spent a lifetime involved, but he also grasped the business element, having spent another lifetime in that realm.
Players have multiple problems to deal with from injury to contracts to whatever life throws at them as well.
You could spend an hour in Enda McNulty’s company, a guiding hand to help you come away with clarity about not only your game, your role in the team, but your life.
Right now, Ireland are not controlling their controllables. There is no greater sporting cliche but you still have to live it. Ireland on form are all about controlling possession, they kick on their own terms, they flow into multi-phase and control the tempo of almost every game they win.
None of that was evident in Cardiff, and little of it during the tournament.
Rassie Erasmus, Michael Cheika and Hansen will each have been encouraged by this Six Nations. England will worry them. Not the team we saw draw 38-all with Scotland or struggled in the second half against Wales but the firepower they brought to Dublin. I still believe that will resonate more in the southern hemisphere than the Welsh Grand Slam.
England’s power game is what delivers in World Cups, historically.
Ireland have to bring something else, we will have to break that power cycle. We are a sum of our parts team. That has always been built on self-belief. Humans lose confidence every day. It can be the smallest disruption that catches you out.
Ireland in 2019 are not without motivators. Nothing is broken.
