Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. Not a line from Gladiator, but an admission that my sense of foreboding in relation to the Irish performance prior to the game against Japan was wildly misplaced. Ireland played with an attacking effervescence that I hadn't seen since we beat the All Blacks in November 2018. It was uplifting to watch.
In his book, Moneyball: The Art of Winning and Unfair Game, Michael Lewis exposed the fallacy of simply trusting instinct and explained that baseball scouts, much like football scouts (or in this case an ex-rugby player) predicted performance and outcomes with a tendency to not only misjudge certain attributes but also to value the wrong attributes entirely.
In 2007 under Eddie O'Sullivan we narrowly lost out on what should have been a Grand Slam and Six Nations title primarily because of naivety. We were more fixated by what France might do rather than having the courage to pursue a bolder approach; reactive rather than proactive.
In 2009 Rob Kearney's Enfield soliloquy helped to propel us to a Grand Slam. Momentum is a curious phenomenon. We had oodles of it in 2007 but flopped at the World Cup and two years later there was nothing in the form-line to suggest that we could/would/should beat all comers in the Six Nations. That's the beauty and the appeal of sport sometimes, the unknown, where logic is banished to the sidelines.
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Trying to decipher from the outside what’s going on in a high performance environment can be tricky. Second guessing and anecdotal evidence don’t make for an exact science. You look at the information at your disposal. I didn’t think that Ireland would play the way they did based on the evidence of the previous matches but discounted the intangible around the players’ ability to turn up. When you aren’t living that life anymore you can forget how special that can be.
Ireland don't have to sacrifice the result on the altar of performance but they shouldn't regress in attitude and ambition
The players and the coaching staff deserve credit and especially Andy Farrell. You have to be mentally resilient to block out the external white noise; patient and resolute. That's what the best coaches, like the best players, do.
Possession game
Ireland were brilliant for 40 minutes, playing a possession game with bite. Previous criticism which has hung around since 2019 was that we play a predictable brand of rugby, which is easy to defend. We mixed our game beautifully, Japan had no answer and we starved them of their number one weapon, possession.
The nay-sayers will say Japan were poor. In my opinion they were poor because Ireland never let them breathe.
A key going into the weekend is to back up the intent with which Ireland played against Japan when New Zealand come calling. This isn't the time to retreat into a more introverted approach on the basis that it might limit the damage against an All Blacks side that are several levels above the one that Ireland routed last weekend.
Retaining the courage to fully commit to the rugby philosophy and patterns they offered in attack last weekend will be the toughest challenge on Saturday. Everything Ireland did in the first 60 minutes was positive and hopefully the template that the team will build on this weekend and beyond.
To illustrate a point, when James Lowe threw that overhead pass back inside from the touchline, he managed to lob it between three Japanese players to the supporting Jamison Gibson-Park. With Gibson-Park on the deck, Lowe immediately slotted into scrumhalf to keep the momentum going and if he didn't throw that pass then Japan could regroup defensively and Andrew Conway wouldn't get to score the first of his three tries.
Lowe’s split second decision was vindicated by the outcome. It’s important that intent doesn’t change against the All Blacks. Good habits and technique shave the odds in your favour but there is an inherent risk. Declining to take on that challenge will stunt progress, individually and in terms of the team dynamic. Fortune might not always favour the brave but without that quality the ceiling will be lower.
Ireland don’t have to sacrifice the result on the altar of performance but they shouldn’t regress in attitude and ambition. I spoke about a narrow approach prior to the game but Saturday was anything but and it was Japan that ended up chasing Irish shadows.
Bundee Aki, Jack Conan and Lowe were used to open up both sides of the pitch, the lineout often a starter play, while also punching through in the midfield. Jamison Gibson-Park and Johnny Sexton recognised the frequent mismatches down the short-side.
Gibson-Park's ability to thread the needle with a pass was a crucial part of Lowe's opening try. We have a pack that is as mobile as any in the world with the hands to match. Andrew Porter, Ronan Kelleher and Tadhg Furlong are as good a trio we have lined up in a long while.
Off script
When Sexton released Furlong, untouched, off a pivot play and he in turn threw a ‘no-look’ pass to Porter I had to smile. The execution would have made any of the three quarter line proud, it was first class - so too the timing, a key indicator that the attack is on top. You can resolve to play with all the shape and intent you want but without the timing it’s useless.
The opening few minutes of the Japan match filled me with confidence in a perverse way. Passes and offloads were spilled... in times past that might have seen ambition shrivel
Gibson-Park’s diagonal grubber kick in one way epitomised the essence of Ireland’s performance. He went off script, read the situation and possessed the skill to back up the decision. That’s what you want from players. Individual skills enhance the team dynamic.
On Saturday Ireland sit the honours paper. New Zealand will do everything, attack, defend, maul, set piece and breakdown to a much, much higher standard than Ireland have experienced, not just last weekend but in their run of six consecutive wins dating back to last season’s Six Nations.
The All Blacks have broken the record for most points in a calendar year and still have two matches to go. A second string team racked up seven tries in 55 minutes against Italy in Rome last week. They are lethal on both sides of the ball.
Ireland’s creation/conversion ratio in try terms against Japan was impressive and while the number of chances this week will be less, Farrell’s side need to maintain a high scoring efficiency to stay in the hunt. They put some passes on the deck against Japan and survived, that won’t be the case this Saturday; most turnovers will be punished by conceding seven points.
If Ireland subscribe to that newly minted sense of adventure then the performance carries more weight than the result. It’s how we shape up under the most intense pressure. Can we maintain the same timing onto the ball in a very compelling second wave attack?
Are we brave enough to throw an offload that yielded a try against Japan, knowing that if it doesn’t go to hand it is very likely sevens point down the other end of the pitch? The opening few minutes of the Japan match filled me with confidence in a perverse way. Passes and offloads were spilled and in times past that might have seen ambition shrivel.
A win, a performance and some new faces for the Pumas game and suddenly these three Tests will feel like a very successful series
Ireland kept teasing and feeling. The focus within the squad seems to be less about mistakes and more about the decision, and then the execution. This slight shift provides a safety mechanism psychologically. In winning the big matches errors or setbacks can’t be allowed to inhibit players and that is why the mental side of sport is so important. Perhaps our players ceded too much of their individuality to the overly defined approach over recent seasons, and are now starting to remember the joy of playing.
There may be a temptation to endorse last weekend’s victory by not making any changes but even that offers an interesting conundrum. New Zealand and Japan have different strengths so why would selection for those two matches be uniform.
Debating point
It starts with a pretty uncomfortable conversation about who starts in the secondrow. I think that Iain Henderson could displace James Ryan based on the Ulsterman's cameo against Japan. While there is no wrong answer given the quality at Farrell's disposal, there is often a nod of approval when a coach makes a tough call and rewards form.
Ireland’s bench is another debating point. When Gibson-Park, Sexton, Josh van der Flier and the frontrow departed, there was a noticeable drop off in the pace at which the team operated. Changes invariably bring an element of disruption to the rhythm of a team’s performance but there definitely wasn’t the same zip.
Farrell will make his choice whether he wants experienced heads to guide the team through an end game, whatever that might be on the scoreboard at the time, or whether to double down and pick a bench that will guarantee no slackening in the tempo. Gavin Coombes’ unavailability has narrowed some of the options.
Perhaps the Argentina game is where we will see new faces and if that is the case then the undue scrutiny (myself included) feels a little embarrassing especially if they honour the victory over Japan with a performance of similar intent irrespective of the outcome against New Zealand. It's not about accepting that Ireland are fated to lose, rather that if it is to be the outcome then Farrell's team go down swinging.
A win, a performance and some new faces for the Pumas game and suddenly these three Tests will feel like a very successful series in the continuing evolution of this group of players. In terms of the one-off game, Ireland are going to make mistakes this Saturday as are the All Blacks, the only question is which team will respond better.
