The discussions that will define Saturday have already happened in Carton House and Pennyhill Park. One of the bubbles will burst.
My concerns about completing a Grand Slam at Twickenham: Leinster never came close to winning those Pro12 finals a week after conquering Europe. This is slightly different as the Slam is more important then a Six Nations title but it remains uncharted territory.
Ireland are champions. The bonus point system will mean this happens more often with a round to play. They cannot pretend it didn't happen. Physically, the players will be at the correct pitch but emotionally nobody knows with any certainty.
There is no better group to figure this out, moment by moment; only an arrogant fool would enter this stadium expecting victory.
Block out the noise as best you can. Ireland don't want to give up their once-in-a-lifetime performance on Saturday (save that for Japan in October 2019). They want to win on the road against a nation ranked third in the world. That requires the best of what we have seen in recent weeks.
Stay the course.
England are under serious pressure to win at home. Unbelievable pressure. They are staring down the barrel of three defeats for the first time, like this, since the Clive Woodward years.
We know what England can do to teams in Twickenham. They humiliated Scotland last year. They have not lost there since the 2015 World Cup <br/>
Look at the leaders who dug them out of that hole. They blew the Grand Slam in 2000, 2001 and 2002 before getting the job done in Dublin, adding the William Webb Ellis trophy for good measure. Eddie Jones would remember that team.
Jones has repeatedly stated the primary goal of his English team is to repeat that achievement next year. That puts his players under huge pressure. Maybe they can recover to win the World Cup having learned enough from losing in Scotland and France.
Careers are on the line here. Certain players know they are filling injury gaps, they know they are playing for their international contracts. That will affect an individual’s performance.
Real pressure.
Flip it around. We know what England can do to teams in Twickenham. They humiliated Scotland last year. They have not lost there since the 2015 World Cup.
Ireland know what’s coming.
I remember Leo Cullen – as a captain – talking before we played Clermont in the 2012 semi-final in Bordeaux.
“Let them come . . . we will take our chances.”
The avalanche was going to fall. We knew what they would do. We just had to hold on – trust our processes – and take the opportunities when they came.
How Ireland, and our leaders, approach the game is what really interests me. Psychological warfare matters in Twickenham because, using logic as the guiding torch, if both teams play to form Ireland are raising their arms at the finish.
Why should this game be any different?
That is the challenge.
If Jones backs the players who failed to repay his faith in Paris then England and their coach could have a major problem when the rugby match begins (after the avalanche).
I expect changes
So I expect changes – where possible at this stage due to their many backrow injuries. England look tired – Maro Itoje is not the player we saw last season or on the Lions tour. He can't be the "future England captain" at the moment, he needs to look after himself. The Premiership takes an enormous toll out of forwards. Maybe they are buckling under the stress of delivering for their demanding coach.
We know they can’t think their way out of trouble during games. They showed this in Murrayfield and Stade de France.
They must change their team. I’d be surprised if Jones goes with George Ford. Put Owen Farrell to 10 with Ben Te’o and Jonathan Joseph in midfield and all of a sudden they are a different proposition.
They know what must be done. They must do what Ireland have done so many times over the decades. Forget form. Focus on beating the pack in front of them.
The lessons from last season are stark: England arrived in Dublin as Six Nations champions only to get cut up by Peter O'Mahony and the other Irish forwards.
This is why yesterday's training in Carton House and Pennyhill Park was so important – and last night's team meetings – because leaders must hit the right tone. Finding and maintaining peak flow is everything this week. England got it wrong last season. I'm confident this Irish group – under the leadership of Rory Best, Johnny Sexton, Rob Kearney, CJ Stander and O'Mahony – understand what needs to be done.
Johnny, Rory and Rob know how rare this opportunity is throughout a full career. Sexton has never won a Triple Crown, he reminded everyone last weekend, when speaking about dragging the young lads along like the “O’Connells, O’Garas, O’Driscolls” did in 2009. Rob was one of those young lads. He knows exactly what to do. Catch his high balls, make his tackles. Do his job.
Lead by actions
England leaders – Dylan Hartley presumably returns as Farrell carries an enormous load – must lead by actions. Like Best or Pete’s fingertip tackles in the wide channels on Huw Jones last weekend. I thought Rory, a few throws aside, was incredible against Scotland. Real, inspirational, “follow me” leadership.
After winning in Paris, standing on the pitch, Johnny spoke about Irish plans being derailed if he had not struck the drop goal. It told us what they are aiming towards.
All this fuels the journey to Japan. If Ireland want to win the World Cup they need to be like England in 2003. Remember Martin Johnson telling his teammates “we will not bend” by standing his ground on the red carpet.
Ireland need to win these monumental Test matches in foreign stadiums.
That is the challenge. I am biased, but this group are capable of doing this, I know they seek this pressure. Scotland messed up three tries last weekend so we know there are defensive problems to work on but they are continually seeking to improve.
This game is already decided. One of the camps has already struck the right chord. The players will have sensed the mental edge is in their favour.
Can England harness the underdog role into a positive? That is their challenge.
What about the championship minutes? The All Blacks built their invincible image on scoring either side of half-time. Look at the Bundee Aki and Dan Leavy tries against Wales. Jacob Stockdale and Conor Murray against Scotland. These are the scores that kill teams, that win titles.
Don't blink. When something inevitably goes wrong Ireland must not abandon their processes. Send Dev Toner up after the restart <br/>
Twice England went to the corner against France. Twice they left the 22 without points. That, currently, is the obvious difference.
England were unable to fix glaring breakdown problems that we highlighted in their defeat to Scotland. They have built their attack upon one man securing quick ball over rucks. This is a major problem that requires a significant game plan alteration mid-tournament.
It sounds like I’m convinced Ireland will beat England in Twickenham, gather the trophy and Triple Crown plate from British royalty and be home safe by tea. It will never be that easy over there.
I won in that stadium three times (four if you include the 2012 Heineken Cup final). They were special days.
Better team
In 2004 we beat the world champions (minus Johnson, Neil Back, Jason Robinson and Jonny Wilkinson). They had hammered us the year before. 2006 was Paddy's weekend with a lot of cash rolling down from Cheltenham. Myself and Geordie Murphy ran never to be remembered decoy lines for the Shane Horgan try. In 2010, not unlike now, we were just a better team (still a one score game).
The advice remains the same. Block out the noise. Survive the avalanche. The English overreaction in the opening 15 minutes could see them 10-0 up. Scoring next is the real mark of a good team. Go through a multi-phase attack with loops and a cross-field kick. That’s how the game is won. Don’t blink. When something inevitably goes wrong Ireland must not abandon their processes. Send Dev Toner up after the restart.
England are seeking to avoid a third defeat in a row. This will not be a pretty. They will go for us, they have to. Fear is a motivation for them. Pressure will weigh heavy over Twickenham.
Logically, Ireland are nailed on to win. Logic is fallible. A dropped ball here, missed penalty there and the English wingers can run riot in wide channels. They have backed themselves into this corner but England are desperate to win. We should win. Save your money for Ruby and pints.
