IRELAND v FRANCE
Venue: Aviva Stadium.
Kick-off: 4.50pm.
On TV: Live on RTÉ Two/UTV/ITV
The Six Nations returns to a wildly expectant and floodlit Aviva Stadium, and not a moment too soon. The margin for error is limited. This will be taut and full-on. Ireland-France tête-à-têtes don't tend to be dull, and in a win-or-bust scenario with title aspirations on the line, this will be no exception.
Under Guy Novès this French team are showing real signs of a resurgence.
As was the case under Philippe Saint-André they will bring a bruising power game, but with the offloading game honed by Novès at Toulouse as well as an ability to counter-attack from loose kicks and turnovers, they are no mugs.
Ireland under Joe Schmidt are further down the track, more proven and assured in what they are about.
But if they’re off their game like they were in Murrayfield, they will most probably lose and, as an aside, would not only drop out of the title picture, but the world’s top four as well.
But, locked and virtually fully loaded, the memory of that sluggish first-half in Murrayfield will drive this Irish team on for the remainder of the championship.
"It's obviously massive for both teams," said the returning Irish captain Rory Best after yesterday's captain's run at the match venue.
“There’s the context of the Championship itself but for us to make sure that we don’t ever let that first half in Scotland happen again, that we make sure we build through the second half of Scotland. It was a very good performance in Rome and we need to make sure we keep stepping forward.”
Turning tide
Time was when France were Ireland’s bête noire. The tide has turned, France’s 10-9 win in Paris last year being their first win in six meetings.
Yet France remain the only team against whom Ireland have a losing record since the tournament’s expansion to six, having won just three of the countries’ last 13 meetings in the Six Nations.
This year, of course, marks the 10th anniversary of Ireland’s arrival in Croke Park and that cursed defeat to France.
A fortnight later, England suffered an Irish backlash. Asked for their memories of that day, Best turned to Andy Farrell, then the English defence coach, and quipped: "It was a great day wasn't it? Didn't you enjoy it?"
But, as he has maintained before, Farrell said: “I was unbelievably proud to be part of that. I use that as an example about the pressure of a game, winning a Six Nations et cetera, staying in the fight or whatever. There was never pressure more so on a team than there was on the Irish team that day.
“How that translated into an unbelievable performance, in my opinion, was a great sporting moment, never mind the moment behind the moment, as in the history et cetera. How they went about that job is certainly a highlight in my career, even though I was on the wrong side of it. I thought they performed fantastically well.”
Of course, any team can ride on the crest of a wave on a given day, and that can certainly apply to a French team.
Noting how Ireland did not deal with the moments against Scotland, Farrell said of France: “If they get their tails up we know that they can be a force and it’s up to us to stay in the moment.”
Quick ball
While admitting that Ireland’s defence struggled with Scotland’s attacking width, Farrell stressed that this can hinge on the speed or otherwise of quick ruck ball,
“It isn’t just about width. Everyone’s obsessed with width but if you get too wide this French side can certainly play through you as well.
“What we’ve seen throughout the autumn and in the two [French] games so far is dominant carries with offloads which is short gain and playing through you, and to hit you on the counter-attack as well. So we’ve got to be ready for everything.”
In the last game and a half, Ireland's line speed, spacing and tackling has been on the money, and if they can generate quick ball, Ireland have the carrying ability in CJ Stander, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Robbie Henshaw et al to force penalties from a potentially impatient French defence, and generate mismatches.
There is also the almost intangible advantage of playing at home. Ireland are unbeaten in three Six Nations campaigns at the Aviva Stadium under Joe Schmidt.
By contrast, since beating Ireland by 25-22 in February 2011, France have won just three of their last 14 away matches in the Six Nations – two in Italy and one in Scotland.
Windy, showery conditions may decree that the scrum will have a bigger impact on this game than either of Ireland's outings to date, and Les Bleus will bring a big scrum, an imposing maul, and heavy-hitting rumblers such as the in-form Sébastien Vahaamahina and Louis Picamoles, as well as the dynamic Kevin Gourdon.
Yet Ireland have a good scrum too, and replenished to virtual full-strength save for Jared Payne, have the impact off the bench – especially in Cian Healy, Iain Henderson and Peter O’Mahony – to cope when France launch their heavy weaponry.
Then there is the Schmidt Factor. In the last 48 hours before the game, the players pretty much take over, but there is the leadership and professionalism to put the coaches’ game plan into place, and expose any French frailties.
Despite the greater direction Baptiste Serin and Camnille Lopez have brought to this French team, conditions may also place a greater premium on the game management of the respective halves.
And here, where Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton, for whom we will cluck like mother hens more than ever before, bring a combined haul of 118 caps to the 20 accumulated by Serin and Lopez.
Ireland may just have more savvy.
IRELAND: Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster); Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster), Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster), Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Leinster), Simon Zebo (Cork Constitution/Munster); Johnny Sexton (St Mary's College/Leinster), Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster); Jack McGrath (St. Mary's/Leinster), Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster, capt), Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster), Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster), Devin Toner (Lansdowne/Leinster), CJ Stander (Shannon/Munster), Sean O'Brien (UCD/Leinster), Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster).
Replacements: Niall Scannell (Dolphin/Munster), Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster), John Ryan (Cork Constitution/Munster), Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster), Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster), Kieran Marmion (Corinthians/Connacht), Paddy Jackson (Dungannon/Ulster), Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster).
FRANCE: Scott Spedding (Clermont Auvergne); Yoann Huget (Toulouse), Rémi Lamerat (Clermont Auvergne), Gael Fickou (Toulouse), Noa Nakaitaci (Clermont Auvernge); Camille Lopez (Clermont Auvergne), Baptiste Serin (Bordeaux-Begles); Cyril Baille (Toulouse), Guilhem Guirado (Toulon, capt), Rabah Slimani (Stade Francais), Sébastien Vahaamahina (Clermont Auvergne), Yoann Maestri (Toulouse), Bernard le Roux (Racing 92), Kevin Gourdon (La Rochelle), Louis Picamoles (Northampton).
Replacements: Christopher Tolofua (Toulouse), Uini Atonio (La Rochelle), Eddy Ben Arous (Racing 92), Julien Devedec (Brive), Charles Ollivon (Toulon), Maxime Machenaud (Racing 92), Henry Chavancy (Racing 92), Djibril Camara (Stade Francais).
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales).
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Luke Pearce (England).
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia).
Head-To-Head: Played – 95. Ireland Won – 32. France Won – 56. Drawn – 7
Last five meetings: (2013) Ireland 13 France 13 (Dublin). (2014) France 20 Ireland 22 (Paris). (2015) Ireland 18 France 11 (Dublin), Ireland 24 France 9 (RWC, Cardiff). (2016) France 10 Ireland 9 (Paris).
Last five games: Ireland – Won 52-21 v Canada (H); Lost 9-21 v New Zealand (H). Won 27-24 v Australia (H). Lost 22-27 v Scotland (A). Won 63-10 v Italy (A). France – Won 52-8 v Samoa (H). Lost 23-25 v Australia (A). Lost 19-24 v New Zealand (A). Lost 16-19 v England (A). Won 22-16 v Scotland (H).
Betting (Paddy Powers): 3/10 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 10/3 France. Handicap odds (France +7pts) Evens Ireland, 22/1 Draw, Evens France.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
