Devin Toner, Paul O'Connell, Iain Henderson, Seán O'Brien and Jamie Heaslip are currently my starting 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 against France on October 11th.

Chris Henry has to be on the bench, which leaves a brilliant challenge for Peter O'Mahony and Donnacha Ryan. I'm only privy to the matches (not the training) and the brutal facts are Henderson is on fire. So who loses out? O'Mahony and Heaslip have some way to go in matching Henderson.

An early pool starting combination of Henry and O’Brien on both flanks is worth a look – or what of looking at Henderson 6, Henry 7 and O’Brien 8?

Likewise, the symbiotic relationship in Ireland’s back three requires deep examination. All versions were occupied with quality at varying stages of form, but lacked cohesion.

This is worth focusing on with yet another version, in Simon Zebo, Tommy Bowe and David Kearney, facing England. Ireland struggled to gain footholds in attacking areas against Wales and to get those scores with time running out. With an exceptional kicking game Ireland will pressurise opposition in the air, but the laws of average came to haunt us in Cardiff this Six Nations. The scrum will win more than an average amount of penalties.

Breakdown pictures

But Ireland do err on narrow, one out targets which provide great breakdown pictures for our support runners maintaining possession and quick recycle.

Joe Schmidt will not tolerate his ball carrier carrying poorly nor being left alone to the opposition vultures, which of course stifles our attacking options.

So if our kicking game or the famed Johnny Sexton wrap around struggles to gain purchase tomorrow – what next? The one out runner is no easy tackle but it is relative to other forms of ball carrying: namely off-loading into space.

The counter-attack is possibly the best form of this. Where Wales elected to kick the ball to our back three last week we chose to kick back or counter off the poorer Welsh kicks.

High in the Aviva, I could assess very quickly where the holes were, but this is much more difficult for the players on terra firma. So they rely on patterns of counter-attack based on principles and weaknesses spotted by the video analysts – requiring cohesion from yet another new back three.

Without loitering on the observation, orientation, decision-making and action (Ooda) loop, Ireland need patterns to confuse the opposition. And getting from observation to action by skipping orientation and decision-making is key to creating confusion in the opposition.

When confused all opposition are vulnerable – even the All Blacks (see New Zealand v France in previous RWCs!). Tomorrow will be no different. So when the Irish back three receive an errant kick what counter attack policy will create “action”, attacking vulnerable English space as quickly as possible?

In our last two losses to Wales they kicked the ball over 50 times (opportunity?). On four minutes last Saturday, Wales found a long touch finder. As it barely crossed touch it was caught and spun immediately by Rob Kearney to the ever vigilant Keith Earls who countered. But, his counter was simply a straight-line run into heavy covering Welsh traffic where he spilled the ball.

That it was Welsh fatties, loosehead and hooker, in heavy traffic that halted him is most telling. Off Ireland’s first powerful scrum on nine minutes 46 seconds Sexton kicked to Wales who returned with interest before Rob Kearney countered.

That previous scrum placed the bulk of the 16 forwards in the same area, leaving huge swathes of space to attack. Like Earls, Rob Kearney ran a hard line back at the Welsh big men Dan Lydiate and sluggish Bradley Davies to no avail with Sexton facing an organised defence which was blocked down by Justin Tipuric.

But as the game wore on the back three began to settle into their relationship. On 26 minutes and 22 seconds Wales returned a kick from the Irish restart. This time it landed into Earls’ hands who was out on the left hand-touchline. He jinked a wee bit while marginally transitioning infield.

Aggressive line

In essence he, much more conscious of time and space than earlier,and, crucially, sensing his fullback was preparing a line, waited while the Welsh honey potted. Again from my seat, I could see Rob Kearney’s aggressive line and the open pocket of space behind the Welsh focused on swamping Earls for a cheap turnover. Not one Welsh player “observed” Kearney’s line and, on taking the sweetest of passes from Earls, he stole in behind.

The hardest part done Ireland’s next challenge is to maximise Kearney’s great line which requires a plan too (more later).

The back “counter attacked” again on 43.08 this time putting two passes on the ball to David Kearney and many holes were found for ten phases. But on 74.03 Ireland didn’t look to offload as Earls did earlier and the ball carrier ended up in heavy traffic with the “action” phase under Welsh control.

England have many fine athletes but too many poor decision makers. They are vulnerable to being confused where Zebo and his wingers, if encouraged, are brilliantly placed.

liamtoland@yahoo.com