Liam Toland: Scotland to find Ireland a different proposition

What I wonder, is Gregor Townsend’s reaction to a mistake?

What you measure, you manage but coaches manage mistakes in different ways. What might he say to a Scottish Simon Zebo; one minute creating carnage for the opposition and the next?

In essence what is the difference between Scotland and Ireland? Finn Russell's outrageous pass to Huw Jones leading to Scotland's second try versus Johnny Sexton's brilliant pass to Jacob Stockdale for Ireland's first. But, Sexton was playing an advantage; Russell, his empowered instinct.

So in tomorrow’s closing quarter what can Scotland do to push mistakes and the fixture their way?

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Forget England's breakdown, what is actually workable for Scotland tomorrow? When France became fatigued their penalties grew. Scotland, dare I say Greig Laidlaw, maximised on same but Ireland won't tire in the same fashion.

Pre-tournament I noted England would not win the Championship as they’d lose in Scotland and that France will take so much out of them we’ll beat them in Twickenham; leaving Scotland!

The Scots made more mistakes in their visit to Cardiff than Ireland have done in 53 internationals under Joe Schmidt.

I wonder if Scotland tightened up a tad, limiting mistakes, and if Ireland loosened up thus ‘inviting’ mistakes would the sides ultimately cancel each other out? No. Scotland are still not the team, squad and management Ireland are; maybe in time, but not yet. So how can Scotland win it?

Scotland kicked off their fixture against England, long and left. We know, as do Scotland, that England outkick Ireland/Scotland on every level so Scotland set up as normal but, when English scrumhalf Danny Care box kicked down the Scottish left hand tram tracks it was very instructive to watch Scottish outside centre Huw Jones from the moment the ball left Care’s foot.

The game only 19 seconds old, Jones put his head down and sprinted the opposite direction into open field; why? Already Scotland wanted to shift the point of attack away from England’s traffic. The ball didn’t arrive to Jones this time, but be aware, he was ready.

With this in mind much has been made of Finn Russell's outrageous pass to Jones leading to their second try. But a passage of play far more potent was their exit eight minutes earlier on 22:04 when England's outhalf George Ford found the bottom left Scottish corner. One pass inside to fullback Stuart Hogg and he bounced on to Russell under Scottish posts (two passes Townsend policy?) and off they went into acres of space; remember Jones's reaction to England's first box kick?

Get into where the space is and let the ball-carrier find you; this is a crucial Townsend value where he accepts mistakes to make this happen.

Russell carried 35 metres and found Jones way out right. Once again Joe Launchbury was terrible at the subsequent breakdown and Scotland gained a scrum 80 metres from where they transitioned. They didn't score but the Hogg, Russell, Jones trinity bared their considerable counterattack claws where pace and double double passes is their way to attack space.

Breakdown jackals

Ireland must slow them down from quick lineouts, quick rucks, quick rewinds, quick double double passes (off lineouts Scotland put a double double skip getting the ball across the pitch in two passes).

So we need to understand England’s breakdown technique failures. Scotland know Ireland’s game, they know that Ireland ruck ad nauseam but also know that Wales in combating this conceded eight breakdown penalties in the opening half against Ireland. They’ll also know that Wales totally disengaged from the breakdown in the second half and conceded only one penalty all 40 minutes and nearly won.

So having hoodwinked England at the breakdown, I fancy Scotland will err on the side of caution and be very selective on their breakdown jackals. More accurately I think Scotland will target the third/fourth or fifth carry in the knowledge that Ireland’s multi-ruck phase runs out of numbers making that fourth/fifth ruck vulnerable. But, did they really hoodwink the English breakdown? No.

England conceded their first breakdown penalty on 1:26 from a poor Huw Jones chip-kick gathered easily. Care hit the brilliant Mako Vunipola who this time, received miles behind the gainline and ‘strolled’ up to contact (not like him). His two support runners, Launchbury and Courtney Lawes, had time to latch on and power Scotland back but were slower still. Any Irish forward would have murdered them.

The Scottish breakdown was not as brilliant as it appeared when factoring in the appalling technique as seen for England’s second breakdown penalty on 4:33. I could go on! By the way, this time the English ball carrier was Anthony Watson but the two clearing out? Launchbury and Lawes!

On 36:44 Scotland stole yet another breakdown penalty from another terrible Launchbury clear-out; the subsequent lineout led to Jones scoring his second try. How many times Scotland got out of jail due to simple counter-rucking of a meek English team is worthy of praise but Ireland will not be bullied thus.

Ireland’s breakdown will be far more violent and technical than England’s. Ireland’s defence will be varied throughout which will confuse Russell in when to fire a loopy pass.

In all this a word of warning; CJ Stander watch out; please, please, please vary the ball carries or Scotland will attack as they did Vunipola. Get it right as Vunipola did on 43:13 when he actually tested the Scottish defence with a real carry; followed by an immediate rewind and try for Owen Farrell; easy?

Maybe Ireland will have 67 per cent possession again tomorrow but if the Irish forwards carry flatter with far more variety more yards will be gained per carry and Scotland’s turnover play will be far less potent, making life much easier for the Irish defence! But – mistakes do happen.

liamtoland@yahoo.com