Lions may tick all the boxes but be wary of underdogs Australia

Three Olympic games have come and gone in the long years since Australia defeated the Lions in the third Test at the Sydney Olympic Stadium on July 14, 2001.

Since that day the Wallabies and New Zealand have battled 36 times. If the fight for the Bledisloe Cup is special then the opportunity to be part of the battle for the Tom Richards Trophy is a gift.

Chance has seen three generations of Australian players finish their careers without the opportunity to measure their character in a Test match against the Lions.This week, a special few will etch their name into folklore and experience a Lions-Australia match.

Test match week is special. It is impossible to describe. It has to be lived to truly comprehend the adrenalin-filled experience. Every day your senses are assailed.

The intoxicating smell of the cut grass on the lined and manicured field and the pungent, moist and earthy scent of honest sweat.

The visual pallet of colour of the team uniforms. The scarlet, white, green and blue contrasting with the “wattle” green and gold of the Wallabies.

The silence of the team bus, with an atmosphere dripping of anxiety, energy, promise and the fear of failure.

The reverberating, deafening roar of the crowd in the cathedral-like stadium, so loud that at times players cannot hear their team-mates’ calls only a metre away.

It is a dream that is a reality. In this vivid dream you are totally alive, only time is your enemy.

The game
In the days leading up to the Test, time appears to have slowed. The hours hang heavy on the shoulders of the combatants as they endure the countdown to kick-off.

Then, as if in an instant, the game is done.

On Sunday morning after the match, with all the passion spent, the time appears to have raced by. You replay the images of the match in your mind and they flicker like the vision from a speeding time-lapse camera. It is an unreal experience.

Like the players’ youth, it is over so quickly. The match, laden with so much expectation, excitement and opportunity is gone forever, never to return.

As in life, the winning will go to those who grab their opportunity.

The Lions know they should win.

They are the better prepared, the more skilful and the better resourced. Yet the game has so many variables that the Lions cannot control; victory is never assured until you are back in the change room singing the team song.

Despite the overwhelming evidence in the Lions’ favour, the Wallabies believe they have a chance to win. The team is behind, but only a little. They are less prepared, but not by much. They are outgunned. But their passion and courage is equal.

Since its beginnings more than a century ago, that has been Australian rugby’s normal operating circumstance. An under-resourced underdog, taking on a giant.

History shows that every generation of Wallaby team has ambushed one of the great teams of that era.

In 2001 the Lions walked into the dying days of modern Australian rugby’s “belle epoch”. In 1999 the Wallabies won the World Cup. In 2000 they won both Tri Nations and Bledisloe Cups. They repeated the feat in 2001. It was one of the greatest eras of Australian rugby.

Those days are long gone. Australia lost the Bledisloe Cup in 2003 and have never won it back. To quote Bruce Springsteen, "Hard times come and hard times go, only to come again."

All areas
The present is "hard times" for the Wallabies and rugby in Australia.

If we analyse the game by its key factors, the Lions dominate the Wallabies in all areas. The Lions’ ability to win possession at lineout, scrum and restart is superior to Australia.

Their ability to carry the ball forward with key runners like O’Driscoll and North in the backs and Heaslip in the forwards is also superior. Their game manager, Jonathan Sexton, is vastly more experienced than James O’Connor.

The goal kicking percentages of Halfpenny are superior to those of James O’Connor.

In leadership, the Lions are littered with former Lions captains and players who have captained their country like Jamie Heaslip and Alun Wyn Jones.

The Wallabies have lost their best player and captain David Pocock. His unexpected and hugely experienced replacement, George Smith is also injured. As is their likely backrow partner Scott Higginbotham.

The Lions now have a major advantage in the area that wins Test matches – the backrow. The Wallaby replacements will be brave, courageous and honest but on form they are inferior to the Lions.

The first Test and the series are there for the Lions to lose.

The week of the Lions and Wallabies Test match has begun, so enjoy it. Gulp it down in giant mouthfuls. Wash yourself in its excitement, adrenalin and joy.

Then next Sunday morning as you replay the match in your mind, don’t be surprised if you see the king of beasts being kicked in the bum by a cute and cuddly marsupial.

The Wallabies are down but not out. Bring it on.