So here it is then, the first Six Nations from the outset without any real, live, cheering, singing and colour-coordinated supporters. It will also be the last Six Nations as we've known it, in that from next year onwards, and for the foreseeable future, all 15 matches will not be shown live on terrestrial television.
At least broadcasting the games on free-to-air TV has been maintained in this year of all years. In most other respects not much has changed. The Six Nations may be a five-game format, but in terms of the title, it remains a glorified knockout competition.
One loss and you're out? It may feel particularly so in Cardiff tomorrow given the losers will still have to face England and France, who re-asserted their duopoly in what many in those countries probably feel is the natural order of things.
That said, last year's Six Nations marked the first time since 2002 that England and France both beat Wales and Ireland in the same championship, and the first since 2011 when they both finished in the top two.
Admittedly, England did lose on the opening day in Paris 12 months ago, although their recovery from a 24-0 deficit to earn a losing bonus point proved crucial in winning the title above France on points difference.
That was the first time since 2013 when a team lost the opening game before going on to win the title, Wales recovering from an initial 30-22 loss to Ireland to win their next four games (while Ireland didn’t win another and finished fifth).
The only other time it has happened since becoming the Six Nations was in 2006, when France, the eventual champions, lost in Murrayfield in the first round.
Spoiled with success
Viewed in this light, winning comes before performance on the opening weekend, which Andy Farrell conceded to a degree yesterday.
“The Six Nations tends to be won by the team that wins the most, so yeah, winning first and foremost has got to be key, but obviously we take pride in our performance as well. That’s got to come hand in hand as well.”
In the fallout from the high-achieving Joe Schmidt and Warren Gatland reigns, when both countries were spoiled with success, this is also being billed as something of a referendum on Farrell and Wayne Pivac. Yet Ireland won six out of nine games last year, including a double over Wales, whereas the Red Dragonhood won only three out of 10.
All in all though, tomorrow feels like a big moment for this Irish team.
“Do you know what, they are all big moments,” maintained Farrell. “This is the most important one because it’s the next game. It’s the start of a competition that we want to do really well in. Once this game is out of the way, the next one will be a big game, France at home.”
The selections convey the importance of the result as both coaches revert to many established and familiar combinations. Ireland’s match-day squad boasts 887 Tests for their country while Wales’ has 1,034, and both are also studded with Lions Test players.
For much of 2020, as Pivac largely kept faith with the heroes of 2019, it appeared as if some of that Welsh team were, as Eddie Jones put it, “starting to come down the other side of the mountain”.
Taulupe Faletau seemed a prime case in point, but the manner in which he and Justin Tipuric increasingly carved open the Italian defence as they eventually pulled away to convincingly win 38-18 last time out suggested they had turned a corner, or at any rate Pivac had found a better way of employing them nearer to the action in midfield rather than in the wider channels.
At the outset of that Test window, Pivac said they tested the players’ fitness levels and “were probably down on where we needed to be”, a consequence of lockdown and their rivals playing in European games. “Certainly towards the end we felt we were gaining ground.”
Add in the return of Ken Owens and Dan Lydiate, as well as Alun Wyn Jones' recovery from injury, and this Welsh side is full of battle-hardened Test warriors. The selection of the 6ft 8in Adam Beard suggests a respect for Ireland's line-out and maul.
Initial lead
After a year away from the Principality Stadium, while used as a field hospital, they’ll welcome returning to a ground where Ireland have lost on their last three Six Nations visits. The roof will be open and crowd noise will be filtered into the stadium, but that’s no substitute for the real thing.
Bad starts all but did for Ireland’s chances here six and two years ago, and if Wales again build any kind of initial lead it will all but banish their bad memories of 2020. Alternatively, a strong Irish start could sow seeds of doubts in Welsh minds.
Given the absence of supporters, the familiarity between the teams and the high stakes, it’s unlikely to be the most fluid and high-scoring game, especially as the breakdown law tweaks encourage more kicking.
Ireland look well equipped to impose their physicality and field position, and Andrew Porter, Tadhg Beirne and CJ Stander augment the threat of the loose forwards at the breakdown.
Whatever woes Ireland had in 2020, in different games the Welsh set-piece and defence struggled, and they couldn’t cope with Ireland’s pick-and-go drives in November.
In addition to Iain Henderson, Ireland would happily start with the frontrow replacements, where Wales look comparatively thin, while the back-up backs are all potential game-changers.
Hence, even if it’s tight, the strength of Ireland’s finishing team should tip the scales.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
