Rugby:If It ain't broke don't fix it. Declan Kidney has shuffled his cards along the way in Ireland's four-match winning run but after what was probably Ireland's most complete performance of the quartet against Italy last Saturday, the Irish coach has opted for an unchanged hand against Wales in Wellington this Saturday (kick-off 6pm local time/6am Irish).
As of last night, the Irish camp were even clinging to the hope that Rory Best might recover in time to take his place in this eagerly anticipated quarter-final, though the odds remain against him, in which case the one enforced change will see Seán Cronin start with Damien Varley on the bench.
Best took part in training at Rugby League Park in Wellington before the team announcement was made and Kidney admitted he will leave the final decision as late as possible on whether he is fit enough to play on Saturday.
“The decision could go right to the end, we’ll make it when we have to make it,” said Kidney. “I wouldn’t want to tempt fate by rating Rory’s chances, but he’s not ruled out which is always the first sign.
“He had a good day yesterday which everyone was very positive about. He’s making great progress and we’re taking it one day at a time.”
With Jerry Flannery and David Wallace out of the frame, the pack and three-quarter line are pretty much cast in stone at this juncture, and have remained the same through the games against Australia and Italy, and now this World Cup quarter-final.
The exception to this has been the half-backs, where Conor Murray and Ronan O’Gara formed a fifth different combination there in eight Tests this season against the Italians. Along with his generally sharp footwork to the breakdown and passing, Murray added real presence around the fringes, with his tackling, carrying and box-kicking, not to mention the remarkable composure we’ve already come to expect from this 22-year-old. It was, after all, only his second Test start.
O’Gara, too, continued his rich vein of form in the enclosed Otago Stadium with a six from seven, 16-point haul in a ground where all kickers heretofore, including Jonny Wilkinson, have struggled. That took his ratio up to 16 from 19, and two of his misses have struck the uprights. O’Gara thus kept the scoreboard ticking over as well as Ireland, and as the long-range forecast for a wet and windy Wellington on Saturday remains a little mixed, opting for the Rain Master in a Cup tie makes sense.
That said, when Jonathan Sexton nailed his two kicks it would have done him the world of good, and there must have been consideration given to recalling him bearing in mind he is as good at running the line, while adding more of a running threat and, perhaps most of all, more defensive physicality.
Finally, though, it would appear that Murray has become first-choice scrumhalf, having begun the pre-season camp in fifth place, while O’Gara has reclaimed the hotly contested outhalf slot, although it’s also clear that Reddan and Sexton did enough last Sunday in the eyes of the management to make their appearance in the last quarter against Wales fairly likely.
“I know it’s unconventional to have different half-backs at different times,” admitted Kidney, “but sometimes it depends on how you look at that – is it an area of strength or something you hide away from and just put your eggs in one basket?
“But when they’ve all been on the pitch they’ve all brought their own bits to it. When Jonathan came on the last day, Italy were attacking and he was hugely strong defensively for us. Eoin (Reddan) robbed two great balls for us as well too, so leaving them out isn’t the easiest thing in the world then either. But Conor and Ronan had gone quite well for us earlier on. I just think we’re in a lucky situation.”
No one could question O’Gara’s bravery, but when Wasps beat Munster in the epic Heineken Cup semi-final of 2003, Warren Gatland’s team blatantly targeted O’Gara, who went off injured before half-time. And when Ireland clinched the Grand Slam two years ago, Welsh players were almost ignoring space as they sought him here, they sought him there and sought him everywhere.
Ireland will assuredly have contingency plans, be it Stephen Ferris or Seán O’Brien taking over Wallace’s roll of ‘minder’, though Kidney wouldn’t let on as much. “They (Wales) have quite an array of places where they can attack now. I think that’s why Wales are a better side now, whereas before you might have known where they’re going to attack, now they’re going to attack in other places too. It’s going to be a case of where everybody stands up and looks after their own zone.
“But for a kick of the ball against South Africa they’d be four from four too, and they beat England and Argentina in August too,” added Kidney, who admitted a new, younger group of players have “brought their own spark and the senior players have responded to that. They have been showing some different trends in the way they’re playing. So it’s more difficult to read them now.”
Ultimately, the chances of Best making this quarter-final must be unlikely. Admittedly the word is that the Ulster hooker is making good progress and to a large degree his recovery prospects depend on the grade of A/C strain he sustained against Italy.
The nature of the injury makes it especially difficult to function fully at scrum time and just as unfortunately, the injury is to his right shoulder; ie his throwing arm. A six-day turnaround doesn’t help his cause either.
IRELAND XV (v Wales, Wellington, Saturday, 6.00am)
15 Rob Kearney (Leinster)
14 Tommy Bowe (Ospreys)
13 Brian O'Driscoll (Leinster, c)
12 Gordon D'Arcy (Leinster)
11 Keith Earls (Munster)
10 Ronan O'Gara (Munster)
9 Conor Murray (Munster)
1 Cian Healy (Leinster)
2 Rory Best (Ulster) or Sean Cronin (Leinster)
3 Mike Ross (Leinster)
4 Donncha O'Callaghan (Munster)
5 Paul O'Connell (Munster)
6 Stephen Ferris (Ulster)
7 Seán O'Brien (Leinster)
8 Jamie Heaslip (Leinster)
Replacements:S Cronin (Leinster) or D Varley (Munster), T Court (Ulster), D Ryan (Munster), D Leamy (Munster), E Reddan (Leinster) , J Sexton (Leinster), A Trimble (Ulster).
