Once again then, Irish hopes of advancement to the knockout stages in the European Champions Cup would appear to hinge on Munster. But were they to lose at home to Leicester on Saturday night it would be the first time in the 20-year history of the tournament that the Irish provinces have suffered a clean sweep of home defeats to English clubs. Ugh.
Coming by the halfway point in the group stages, were it to be a reprise of the lame defeats Leinster and Ulster suffered to Wasps and Saracens, the triple whammy would be even more dispiriting. Irish rugby could then be facing the stark prospect of not having a representative in the knockout stages for the first time since 1997/'98 – fully 18 seasons ago.
As it is the odds are heavily stacked against Leinster and Ulster. Struggling to stay afloat in the pool of sharks, as one suspected at the time Toulon’s dilatory defeat to Wasps on the second weekend probably did Leo Cullen’s team no favours.
Sure enough, the three-in-a-row champions have shown ominous form in the last two weeks with a settled side registering a first ever win away to Clermont and then at home to Agen, both with bonus points as they scored a dozen tries in the process. Even rediscovering the obduracy of their semi-final extra-time defeat in Marseilles last season would be a feat in Leinster’s current form. With their primary source of go-forward ball, Seán O’Brien, still likely to be sidelines, all in all a win of any hue would probably be the best one-off result in Leinster’s European Cup history.
Win-or-bust night
Ulster also face a win-or-bust night at the Kingspan Stadium on Friday night against the four-time winners Toulouse. They stand alongside Toulon in the Top 14, just one point behind leaders Clermont, after their gnarled pack smothered Oyannax in a 27-3 home win on Saturday.
Toulouse are not tearing up trees but they look well enough equipped to go toe-to-toe up front with an Ulster side whose tight five sorely miss John Afoa and Johann Muller. They have been further weakened by the serious ankle, hamstring and foot injuries which Dan Tuohy, Iain Henderson and Peter Nelson suffered in Friday night’s win over Edinburgh, thereby joining the likes of Tommy Bowe and Jared Payne on the sidelines.
(What is it with all these injuries across the four provinces?)
That Munster retain hope is largely down to the fact that they have hardly played yet, having managed the minimum requirement of a bonus point win at home to Treviso. Since then though, their match away to Stade Francais was postponed and successive league defeats at home to Connacht and away to the Dragons ensures they take little momentum or confidence into Saturday’s encounter.
They were unlucky in that Simon Zebo’s seemingly legitimate try was disallowed in Sunday’s defeat in Rodney Parade, and that Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino didn’t finish off their one decent strike move of the match. Nonetheless, the manner in which the Dragons pulled away in the second-half was alarming. Whereas the Welsh runners came onto the ball with depth and ran straight, Munster either moved the ball too laterally or carriers took the ball on their heels. The lack of leadership and near panic which enveloped them in the last quarter belied a callow-looking side.
Anthony Foley’s angry post-match declaration that some Munster players failed to take their chances, basic handling skills let them down and they needed to knuckle down this week and produce a performance against Leicester to “stop this rot” was candid and revealing.
Declining attendances
This didn’t even take into account Munster’s parlous financial position and declining attendances. This is a huge week in Munster’s season and maybe even beyond. Reaching successive European semi-finals three and two seasons ago in the midst of a transitional phase was an achievement, but successive failure to advance from the pool stages could have severe ramifications.
The IRFU need to remember that as well as financial imperatives, playing for home provinces who are contenders in Europe is a major incentive for players to stay put. Having already lost JJ Hanrahan, for Munster to lose any of their current star turns, notably Zebo, would add more collateral damage.
While no firm offers from Pau, or potentially Toulouse and Stade Francais, or indeed Munster, are yet on the table French sources confirm that Pau are putting together a financial package that would dwarf Zebo’s current provincial contract with Munster. And Zebo is now a 25-year-old father.
Munster's fabled European history is littered with cases of them losing in the league on the weekend before turning their gaze back on Euro matters. That was then though, this is now. Back then they had leaders and characters like Paul O'Connell, Donnacha O'Callaghan, Jerry Flannery, Ronan O'Gara, Rua Tipoki and Doug Howlett.
Do they have those characters now?
This week will tell us much about this Munster squad. Apparently, 20,000 or so tickets have been sold so far for Saturday night’s game. The 7.45 kick-off on a Saturday night in December isn’t helpful. Nor would any more inclement weather, and nor is Munster’s recent form. But if ever the men in red needed the Red Army, it is now, and if ever they needed something to get the old Thomond roar going, it is next Saturday night.
Irish rugby desperately needs a win or two this week. We are about to discover how brave this Munster team is, and how faithful their supporters are. gthornley@irishtimes.com
