Rugby World Cup – Pool A Preview: Only France look likely to spook the New Zealand team in the early stages. Then it will be all to play for, writes John O'Sullivan.

The former American president Lyndon B Johnson once said, “We can draw lessons from the past but we can not live in it”, an observation that New Zealand coach Graham Henry might subscribe to in the run-up to the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

New Zealand – along with Australia – hosted and then won the inaugural event in 1987, but it has never taken that trophy since. That is a bugbear for a nation that considers itself the preeminent force in world rugby – and with reasonable justification.

When David Kirk lifted the William Webb Ellis trophy 24 years ago, the odds on New Zealand not winning it again in the intervening period would have been astronomical – but fate has offered nothing but a cold shoulder to the All Blacks. It is a litany of failure that is expected to come to an end at the conclusion of this year’s event.

Expectation levels among the New Zealand public are unfettered by any historical baggage. The All Blacks are on home soil and the nation demands a successful campaign. It might be tempting to use such words as claustrophobic or suffocating to describe the intensity of the pressure on the host squad and management, but a dispassionate, practical appraisal of their task suggests a less fraught venture.

Ensconced in Pool A, they will nominally contest outright honours with a team who have twice derailed their World Cup ambitions in the past: France. While the sight of the French jerseys may cause palpitations at the knockout stage of the tournament, based on 1999 and 2007, it shouldn’t cost them a second thought in their pool clash.

The rest of the fixtures are a mere bagatelle with due respect to Tonga, Canada and 2011 Pacific Nations Cup champions, Japan. The latter are coached by former All Blacks and World Cup winner John Kirwan. Henry will be able to mix and match as he negotiates these fixtures and it would constitute a surprise if every one of the 30-man squad hadn’t seen game time at one point.

Injuries notwithstanding, New Zealand should arrive in the knockout stage of the tournament in fine fettle and, as pool winners, would be likely to find their path barred by one of England, Scotland or Argentina: essentially, the country that finishes runners-up in Pool B. It’s hardly the most onerous assignment.

The good news for those Kiwis of a nervous disposition – and you’d have to scour both islands to find someone who doesn’t think they’re nailed-on winners – is that, once out of the group, the hosts cannot meet the French or the All Blacks’ other World Cup nemesis, Australia (1991, 2003) until the final.

At the penultimate stage of the competition, New Zealand may meet the reigning world champions – and the side that beat them in the 1995 final – South Africa.

Pundits scouring for potential stumbling blocks have pointed to the destabilising effect that an injury to outhalf Dan Carter or captain and openside Richie McCaw, seminal players, would have on the tournament favourites; it’s an argument with some merit, but until such a time as one or other occurs, irrelevant.

French coach Marc Lièvremont has enjoyed an emotionally diverse tenure to date from the highs of a Grand Slam to the opprobrium heaped on the team and management following their defeat by Italy in the most recent Six Nations Championship.

Mind you, Lièvremont had no doubt as to where to lay the blame for the latter defeat. “Do I feel responsible?” he said. “No, they betrayed us, they have betrayed me and they have betrayed the French national team shirt.

“Do you really think I told them to play as they did against Italy? I was ashamed. I do not have the impression we asked them to walk on the moon – I do not ask for complicated things. The players are lacking in courage. They are good guys, but cursed with what is obviously cowardice. They are not even capable of admitting their own mistakes.”

He moderated his comments in an attempt to mollify hurt feelings but the frustration and restlessness that has permeated his time as coach was again apparent.

From day one, he travelled many miles on the selection path often returning to previous staging posts. The incessant tinkering in personnel terms has removed a comfort zone for his charges but compromised the consistency of performance. The French team are capable of anything from the sublime to the sullen. They will have little difficulty escaping the pool and, along with Australia, are one of the few countries uncowed by the sight of an All Blacks jersey. Likely to finish second, they could find themselves up against England – Lièvremont did a little Rosbif baiting earlier in the year – in a quarter-final.

There is no doubt that the French are capable of beating anyone if the humour takes them, but it’s difficult to escape the suspicion that they are relying on several individuals who are no longer in prime nick – and one or two others yet to be endowed with a hallmark of genuine test-match quality in terms of their ability.

Japan will have taken good heart from their Pacific Nations Cup outright title victory during the summer. Going into the final match, they needed to beat hosts Fiji, scoring four tries in the process, to pip Tonga. They managed this – albeit with two Fijians having been sent off by Irish referee Peter Fitzgibbon, and three sin-binned, playing half the match with just 13 players.

The Japanese had been due to host the tournament, but the devastation of the tsunami saw it shift to Fiji. Japan, even with their smattering of southern hemisphere-born players, will view the World Cup as a three-cornered spat involving Tonga, whom they beat 28-27 in the Pacific Nations Cup, and Canada. None of the three should trouble the Kiwis or the French.

The latter pair will canter through the pool and the IRB will be hoping that New Zealand in particular doesn’t rack up some big numbers against the weaker nations in the process. There can be no excuses for the host nation as they have a favourable draw and fixture schedule.

The only downside is that they may be “lightly raced” when they reach the business end of the playoffs – but they remain the team to beat.