The Ospreys’ form has deserted them with five defeats in their last six games, so much so that from leading the table they ultimately squeezed into the playoffs with a point to spare, and, of course, no away team has been able to buy a win in the semi-finals of the Guinness Pro12.
Including the competition’s first two years, and since the return of the playoffs in 2009-10, there have been 18 semi-finals and the home side has won all of them.
Yet Rassie Erasmus says he is particularly nervous about another rendezvous with an Ospreys team liberally sprinkled with proven big-game players and likely to have Alun Wyn Jones, Brian Mujati, Sam Davies and Ashley Beck back in harness for Saturday week's semi-final shoot-out at Thomond Park.
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“You create your own reality, you know? The reality is not what the neighbours, the fans or the reporters say – the reality is what you create for yourself. If we were listening to what the reality was before we went into Europe or Pro12 we wouldn’t have had a chance. You have to create your own reality and I’m sure Ospreys are doing that.
“They know what they are capable of with everyone fit and firing. The performances they have delivered this year at some stages were phenomenal – they were on fire.
“We were underdogs going into [the quarter-final against] Toulouse, and the games against Racing, and you don’t listen to what other people are saying. That’s what makes me nervous; they’ll be tight and they will believe.”
The Ospreys, four-time league champions, also possess a better away record in Munster than any other team in the Pro12, having won three times and drawn once in their last seven visits to the province, and this includes two wins and a draw in their last five treks to Thomond Park.
Even the Ospreys’ two losing semi-finals in Limerick were close affairs, Munster winning 18-11 in 2011 before an overruled match-winning try in the final play enabled them to prevail by 21-18 two seasons ago.
Accordingly, Erasmus pays little or no heed to this season’s double, which included a 33-0 rout in Cork last September and a hard-earned 25-22 win in Swansea in February.
Three props
“I know that particularly in the first game when we played them there were 15 or 16 guys with the Welsh squad,” recalls Erasmus.
“They had three props on the bench and an extra hooker. They didn’t even have a secondrow on the bench. I know they were really thin that game when we beat them at home.”
“Away, it was such a close game – we beat them by two points so I guess people from the outside might see it that way, but we scraped through a few games by just one or two points this season so we’ll be very realistic about the challenge.”
His nervousness perhaps also stems from the possibility that having travelled so far in this emotional rollercoaster of a season, Munster could conceivably lose two home semi-finals, which would be a cruelly anti-climactic finale.
There are, at least, lessons to be learned from the Champions Cup semi-final defeat to Saracens.
“Some of the things they [Saracens] do are just small little things that you don’t see on analysis and it’s not that obvious; it seems such an easy thing to handle but when you actually feel it in the game it’s more little things that create pressure.”
“They do it tremendously well, there’s certainly a lot of things that we won’t copy, but we will try to exert the same amount of pressure both mentally and physically which I think Saracens – when they have their top team available – just squeeze the life out of you. That’s something every team can learn from.”
It’s been a challenging first season in Irish rugby for Erasmus, who assumed even more responsibilities after the passing of Anthony Foley.
“The coaching was more done by Felix [Jones], Jacques [Nienaber] and Jerry [Flannery]. I also coach but percentage wise, I think 70-80 per cent was on trying to put the S&C and medical and technical sides, and then the three coaches.
“When Axel passed away, my role got amplified, if that’s the right word, and that was a challenge. We haven’t won anything yet, but to have a bunch of players who are really adaptable, really willing to change and learn, helped a lot.”
Erasmus confirmed there would be no additions to their coaching staff, but is still looking to recruit, notably in the secondrow, given the departures of Donnacha Ryan and Dave Foley to France.
“We probably need a solid signing there which I’m currently trying to do. We’d like to bolster a little bit more in the front row and maybe at loose forward, but in saying that we’d have a lot of Irish guys in mind because we only have a certain amount of foreign spots and only a certain amount of money. I would say we’re 95 per cent there.”